Game Analysis

Note: We grabbed the Jets at +6 on Tuesday after it became clear that Tim Boyle was not going to be their quarterback. The line has since crashed down to +3.5 but New York is still a 1-Star Best Bet at that number.

2-Star Best Bet – **NY JETS (+6) over Houston

· Turns out that a terrible college quarterback makes for an even worse NFL quarterback as Tim Boyle averaged 0.06 fewer EPA/play than Zach Wilson. It’s safe to say the Jets offense will be upgrading with the switch back to Wilson on Sunday.

· We know what the Jets are with Zach Wilson. They were -0.1 net yards per play before he got benched this season due to a great defense after being +0.2 net yards per play in 2022. It’s been a disappointing season for New York after all the Aaron Rodgers hype this summer but it’s extremely hard to make the case the Jets are more than 5 points worse than an average team as was implied by the market.

· I expect Wilson will go to the screen game, as Jets RB Breece Hall is averaging 1.57 yards per route run (3rd) and Texans are surrendering 0.09 EPA/target to running backs (26th).

· It will be wet and windy in the Meadowlands this week, which should negate Houston’s advantage in the passing attack. The Texans’ mediocre run game will be shut down as the Jets are conceding just a 35.1% rush success rate (4th).

· New York’s defense also has a favorable matchup against CJ Stroud, who has done more damage versus the blitz than when opposing defenses drop at least 7 into coverage. Stroud’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is only 89% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz (26th) and the Jets have a league-high 85.4% standard pass rush rate.

· Houston’s offensive line will be without starting LG Tytus Howard as well as starting C Jarrett Patterson, who ranks 8th in pass-blocking efficiency. New York interior defender Quinnen Williams has 42 pressures (7th) and he will collapse the pocket all afternoon.

· Defenses were devoting plenty of attention to Texans WR Tank Dell as the rookie saw single coverage on only 29% of his routes (4th-fewest) yet he averaged 0.40 EPA/target (13th). Dell is out for the season due to a fractured fibula last week and his absence will be a substantial blow for Houston’s offense.

· Texans WR Nico Collins was targeted on a career-high 43% of routes against the Broncos and accounted for 57% of Houston’s air yards with Dell sidelined but he will be shut down by All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner, who is conceding just 0.58 yards per cover snap (6th).

·  New York has lost straight up and to the spread in 5 consecutive games, which is about the time when the market starts to overreact. Non-division underdogs that have lost 5 or more games in a row to the spread are 172-123-6 ATS and the Jets apply to a 57-10 ATS subset of that situation. Houston, meanwhile, went 2-1 on their 3-game homestand and road favorites of more than 3 points after playing 3 home games in a row are just 19-41-1 ATS, with the last one being San Francisco losing straight up at Cleveland earlier this season.

· Our model favors the Texans by only 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 32.4 points, and the situation is favorable.

The Jets are a 2-Star Best Bet at +4.5 or more and a 1-Star Best Bet down to +3.5 (Strong Opinion at +3).