Game Analysis
Lean – Houston (-6.5) over NY JETS
The Texans had their 9-game winning streak snapped last week and now are looking to rebound on the road in the first Saturday NFL game of the season. Bill O’Brien is foolishly obsessed with establishing the run, as Houston have the 3rd-highest rush rate in neutral situations despite having a mediocre ground game. The Jets defense is slightly better than league average versus the run and the Texans would be wise to look downfield since New York doesn’t really have the weapons on the edge to exploit Houston’s weak tackles and put pressure on Deshaun Watson.
The Jets won in Buffalo last week, but Sam Darnold continued to show he’s a much different quarterback away from home. Darnold’s 5.7 yards per pass play in that game actually raised his season average on the road to 5.3 yards per pass play. The rookie quarterback is more comfortable at home, where he doesn’t have to fight crowd noise at the line of scrimmage and averages 6.7 yards per pass play. I expect Darnold to play well unless we see sloppy conditions. Jets’ RB Isaiah Crowell is out so Elijah McGuire might get some more run. However, the Jets have really struggled to block for him this season. McGuire has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on a third of his rushes and it likely won’t improve versus a Texans rush defense rated 4th in our numbers.
Our numbers favor Houston by 7.9 with a predicted total of 43.5.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.2
38.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.6%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
10.2%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
18.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.1%
40.7%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.6
24.7
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
22.2%
25.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.2%
41.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.0%
30.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
64.8
63.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.2%
46.3%
-
Succ Rate
45.5%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.4%
38.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
29.2
-
Run Ratio
49.0%
39.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.4
25.1
-
Game Control
2.6
-2.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.6
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.7%
45.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
4.8%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.5%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.0%
40.6%
-
NYPP
6.4
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
29.7
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
30.5%
24.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.3%
43.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.3%
46.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
60.5
66.5
-
Early Down Succ
42.2%
48.3%
-
Succ Rate
39.5%
45.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.5%
43.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
28.2
-
Run Ratio
44.5%
44.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.0
29.6
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
20 – 27 L |
-10.6 |
29.7% /
48.8% |
8.1% /
4.9% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
4.3 /
6.5 |
45.7% /
38.7% |
25.7% /
9.7% |
4.8 /
3.9 |
72 /
72 |
43.1% /
47.4% |
37.5% /
44.4% |
37.4% /
38.0% |
4.5 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
2.8% |
48.6% /
43.1% |
35.4 /
25.4 |
| 2 |
@TEN |
17 – 20 L |
-6.4 |
48.6% /
39.1% |
11.4% /
4.3% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
8.0 |
42.3% /
35.3% |
11.5% /
14.7% |
5.7 /
2.9 |
61 /
57 |
46.0% /
35.0% |
45.9% /
36.8% |
53.1% /
27.9% |
7.2 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.6% /
59.6% |
26.6 /
23.2 |
| 3 |
NYG |
22 – 27 L |
-7.6 |
53.7% /
60.6% |
7.3% /
12.1% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
9.0 /
8.0 |
42.1% /
32.1% |
36.8% /
25.0% |
3.1 /
4.1 |
60 /
61 |
50.0% /
47.8% |
50.0% /
47.5% |
53.4% /
41.3% |
7.1 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
45.9% |
28.9 /
22.2 |
| 4 |
@IND |
37 – 34 W |
6.7 |
55.3% /
48.5% |
14.9% /
6.1% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
6.6 |
42.9% /
41.2% |
28.6% /
41.2% |
3.4 /
2.4 |
82 /
83 |
49.2% /
44.6% |
50.0% /
47.0% |
37.1% /
26.6% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
42.7% /
20.5% |
33.4 /
24.1 |
| 5 |
DAL |
19 – 16 W |
-0.3 |
79.4% /
65.0% |
2.9% /
10.0% |
3.0% /
11.1% |
11.0 /
9.7 |
32.3% /
36.7% |
32.3% /
30.0% |
2.8 /
3.3 |
65 /
50 |
53.3% /
43.2% |
56.9% /
48.0% |
30.1% /
52.9% |
7.1 /
5.9 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.7% /
60.0% |
27.9 /
30.8 |
| 6 |
BUF |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
27.3% /
29.0% |
21.2% /
6.5% |
7.7% /
6.9% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
36.0% /
40.7% |
28.0% /
22.2% |
3.0 /
3.7 |
58 /
58 |
34.9% /
32.6% |
31.0% /
34.5% |
34.1% /
46.3% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
1.7% /
1.7% |
43.1% /
46.6% |
36.5 /
28.2 |
| 7 |
@JAC |
20 – 7 W |
12.6 |
36.0% /
45.7% |
4.0% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
51.3% /
31.8% |
12.8% /
27.3% |
3.7 /
3.2 |
64 /
68 |
47.7% /
41.7% |
45.3% /
41.2% |
21.2% /
13.1% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
60.9% /
32.4% |
36.3 /
20.0 |
| 8 |
MIA |
42 – 23 W |
7.4 |
45.0% /
40.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
12.0 /
6.4 |
38.9% /
64.0% |
19.4% /
20.0% |
5.3 /
4.6 |
56 /
65 |
39.0% /
54.9% |
41.1% /
49.2% |
64.0% /
34.3% |
7.6 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.3% /
38.5% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 9 |
@DEN |
19 – 17 W |
3.8 |
53.6% /
47.7% |
14.3% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.2 |
39.4% /
35.0% |
30.3% /
40.0% |
3.0 /
3.8 |
61 /
64 |
51.1% /
43.8% |
45.9% /
43.8% |
10.7% /
38.5% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
54.1% /
31.3% |
31.4 /
22.5 |
| 11 |
@WAS |
23 – 21 W |
4.8 |
51.9% /
35.7% |
11.1% /
11.9% |
8.3% /
5.4% |
6.7 /
3.7 |
40.6% /
58.6% |
18.8% /
13.8% |
4.4 /
4.3 |
59 /
71 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
45.8% /
45.1% |
44.2% /
19.4% |
5.4 /
3.9 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
54.2% /
40.8% |
31.8 /
34.4 |
| 12 |
TEN |
34 – 17 W |
8.6 |
66.7% /
48.3% |
14.8% /
20.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
9.0 |
45.7% /
34.8% |
8.6% /
26.1% |
8.1 /
4.6 |
62 /
52 |
60.4% /
46.2% |
54.8% /
42.3% |
57.9% /
55.6% |
7.5 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
56.5% /
44.2% |
25.7 /
24.8 |
| 13 |
CLE |
29 – 13 W |
14.2 |
45.7% /
58.5% |
11.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
5.6 /
9.7 |
47.5% /
55.6% |
7.5% /
33.3% |
4.7 /
3.4 |
75 /
50 |
47.4% /
63.4% |
46.7% /
58.0% |
37.1% /
52.6% |
5.1 /
8.6 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
53.3% /
18.0% |
29.5 /
19.9 |
| 14 |
IND |
21 – 24 L |
-3.4 |
39.5% /
58.1% |
11.6% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.3 /
9.0 |
44.0% /
30.8% |
28.0% /
26.9% |
3.6 /
2.0 |
68 /
69 |
41.2% /
55.8% |
41.2% /
47.8% |
45.1% /
49.0% |
4.6 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
37.7% |
22.3 /
25.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% /
44.2% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
9.6% |
7.8 /
5.8 |
32.6% /
37.5% |
9.3% /
25.0% |
4.0 /
2.5 |
66 /
68 |
53.8% /
51.0% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
55.1% /
37.9% |
5.4 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
65.2% /
23.5% |
40.7 /
23.0 |
| 2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% /
44.4% |
6.8% /
14.8% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.5 |
26.3% /
52.9% |
36.8% /
26.5% |
2.2 /
4.1 |
63 /
61 |
39.6% /
55.8% |
38.1% /
49.2% |
50.3% /
36.2% |
5.7 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
3.3% |
30.2% /
55.7% |
24.1 /
34.4 |
| 3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% /
36.6% |
6.1% /
9.8% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
4.6 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
43.3% /
31.4% |
3.6 /
3.9 |
63 /
76 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
42.9% /
39.5% |
22.4% /
32.3% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
46.1% |
23.2 /
33.3 |
| 4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% /
57.5% |
8.1% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
3.9 /
9.4 |
28.6% /
38.2% |
35.7% /
20.6% |
2.4 /
3.7 |
51 /
74 |
35.1% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
48.6% |
23.6% /
50.5% |
3.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
27.5% /
45.9% |
29.8 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
72.7% /
71.8% |
9.1% /
10.3% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
17.2 /
8.8 |
46.2% /
47.1% |
17.9% /
47.1% |
8.3 /
5.4 |
50 /
56 |
42.6% /
56.1% |
52.0% /
64.3% |
74.5% /
42.2% |
10.3 /
7.8 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
78.0% /
30.4% |
28.8 /
26.2 |
| 6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
67.7% /
46.5% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.4% /
7.0% |
8.6 /
7.0 |
23.1% /
60.9% |
28.2% /
17.4% |
2.8 /
5.5 |
70 /
66 |
48.0% /
54.7% |
42.9% /
51.5% |
41.9% /
32.5% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
55.7% /
34.8% |
40.5 /
32.7 |
| 7 |
MIN |
17 – 37 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% /
34.1% |
6.7% /
2.4% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
5.6 |
37.5% /
24.0% |
33.3% /
44.0% |
3.0 /
3.6 |
69 /
66 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
50.2% /
58.0% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
37.9% |
27.3 /
41.4 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
36.7% /
45.2% |
3.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
7.0 |
20.8% /
52.9% |
37.5% /
14.7% |
2.4 /
5.3 |
54 /
65 |
30.8% /
51.9% |
29.6% /
49.2% |
20.3% /
46.3% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
52.3% |
22.0 /
28.5 |
| 9 |
@MIA |
6 – 13 L |
-3.2 |
34.9% /
42.9% |
9.3% /
14.3% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
38.1% /
24.1% |
28.6% /
24.1% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
64 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
35.9% /
33.3% |
41.8% /
15.3% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
50.9% |
18.4 /
32.4 |
| 10 |
BUF |
10 – 41 L |
-20.8 |
37.8% /
48.1% |
8.1% /
3.7% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
8.9 |
55.6% /
47.9% |
38.9% /
18.8% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
55 /
75 |
52.5% /
49.1% |
43.6% /
48.0% |
37.2% /
53.0% |
3.6 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
64.0% |
28.5 /
36.8 |
| 12 |
NE |
13 – 27 L |
-3.1 |
39.1% /
48.4% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
9.1 |
53.3% /
59.5% |
20.0% /
16.2% |
4.9 /
5.8 |
61 /
68 |
43.5% /
58.5% |
42.6% /
54.4% |
28.4% /
57.7% |
5.5 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.6% /
54.4% |
27.1 /
16.8 |
| 13 |
@TEN |
22 – 26 L |
8.4 |
40.6% /
36.8% |
6.3% /
7.9% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
3.9 /
7.2 |
42.4% /
34.8% |
33.3% /
17.4% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
65 /
61 |
46.0% /
43.8% |
41.5% /
36.1% |
28.9% /
69.6% |
4.3 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
37.7% |
32.3 /
25.3 |
| 14 |
@BUF |
27 – 23 W |
-4.8 |
48.0% /
37.5% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.0% /
5.4% |
6.8 /
4.8 |
30.0% /
45.2% |
33.3% /
19.4% |
2.7 /
5.7 |
55 /
71 |
37.8% /
38.6% |
38.2% /
40.8% |
38.4% /
39.4% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
54.5% /
43.7% |
47.1 /
27.2 |
Houston Texans
@ 
New York Jets