Game Analysis

Note: This play was released earlier in the week and the line has gone up and is now out of Best Bet range.

1-Star Best Bet – *NEW ENGLAND (-2.5 -120) over Houston

Strong Opinion – Drake Maye (NE) – OVER 36.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at 39.5 or less

• I’m going to make the case that the Patriots should’ve opened 3-point favorites before considering the loss of Texans WR Nico Collins, who is worth an additional 5.9 percentage points of win probability.
• Home-field advantage increases from the regular season to the playoffs and continues to get higher each round. It is worth 10 percentage points of win probability in the Divisional Round. Thus, implying the market was valuing these teams equally on a neutral field when we bet New England on Tuesday.
• I do not see these teams as equal. The Patriots were +0.17 in net EPA/play (2nd) while the Texans were +0.11 net EPA/play (5th). New England was +0.8 in net yppl (5th) compared to Houston being +0.3 in net yppl (9th).
• Our model graded the Patriots’ regular season 5.4 points per game better than the Texans. Houston’s strength of schedule was 2.9 points per game more difficult than New England’s by our numbers, but the Patriots are definitely better than the Texans, even after accounting for opponents.
• The betting market has rated New England about half a point higher compared to Houston each of the last three weeks.
• The most direct example is the Patriots closing -170 on the de-vigged moneyline versus the Chargers last week, while the Texans closed +110 on the de-vigged moneyline against the Chargers in week 17. The difference in home fields was worth 13.1 percentage points of win probability by our metrics, while the difference between those moneyline prices is 15.3 percentage points of win probability. The gap there equates to the market having the Patriots rated 0.7 points better than the Texans.
• At the time I’m writing this analysis, the betting market has corrected in part because of our release with New England priced at a more appropriate 63% favorite.
• Houston did not deserve a major upgrade after last week, after CJ Stroud had an unrepeatable 148 Yards under pressure, the 2nd-most of his career. Passing yards under pressure has proven to be the least stable game-to-game passing metric.
• The Texans actually deserve a downgrade as they will likely be without WR Nico Collins on Sunday. Collins has been on the field for 66.7% of Houston’s offensive plays this season. The Texans averaged 5.3 yppl with Collins on the field compared to only 4.7 yppl without him. Collins is worth 1.8 points according to our numbers.
• Nico Collins’ second concussion in under three months makes it highly unlikely he suits up for this game. Meanwhile, Patriots’ Pro Bowl cornerback Christian Gonzalez entered concussion protocol but has shown strong signs of a quick clearance.
• Gonzalez has conceded a league-low -9.7 receptions over expected this year and did not allow a reception on any of his 5 targets across 26 coverage snaps in the Patriots’ Wild Card victory. Gonzalez is allowing 0.29 yards per cover snap fewer than backup CB Charles Woods.
• New England’s defense is also stronger with LB Robert Spillane and interior defender Milton Williams. The Patriots faced 147 rushing attempts with both Williams and Spillane on the field, compared to 127 attempts with both sidelined, and New England’s defense allowed 0.7 yards per carry fewer with Spillane and Williams on the field.
• Houston’s pass defense is great, but I expect Drake Maye’s legs to attack them where they’re most vulnerable. Maye leads the NFL with 62 scrambles, and the Texans are surrendering 0.77 EPA/scramble (31st).
• New England’s offensive line, starting two rookies, has struggled against blitzes but ranks 6th relatively versus a standard pass rush, and Maye has a favorable matchup as Houston’s defense has a league-high 80% standard pass rush rate.
• Houston has won 9 consecutive games but playoff teams on a win streak of 8 or more games are just 25-41 ATS over the years, including 19-37 ATS if not getting at least 5 points, so the Texans being a “hot” team has no bearing.
• We think the fair line on this game is Patriots by 4.0 points, with a predicted total of 42.1 points.

New England is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 -110 odds or better and a Strong Opinion up to -3 -115 odds.