Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Our model has no opinion on this game and there is certainly a lot of uncertainty with 3rd string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett making his first start for the Patriots. I was surprised that Brissett was taken in the 3rd round of the NFL draft and I wouldn’t have been surprised if he wasn’t taken at all based on his modest body of work at NC State. However, I have to believe that Bill Belichick knows what he’s doing and must have seen something he likes in Brissett.

Brissett averaged only 5.7 yards per pass play in his senior season with the Wolfpack but he is a smart quarterback that runs very well and takes care of the football (just 11 interceptions on 765 pass attempts at NC State). Brissett doesn’t throw the ball downfield much, but that suits the Patriots’ offense fine given a game plan that generally consists of a lot of short crossing patterns and throws to the tight ends. Speaking of tight ends, Gronk is back in action tonight, which will surely help the rookie.

I don’t know what to expect from Brissett but Houston is a pretty mediocre team and I certainly don’t want to underestimate a coach that has covered the spread 56.5% of the time in his career. Obviously, a lot of that success was with Tom Brady at quarterback but the Patriots are 2-0 ATS this season without Brady and were vastly underestimated in their week 1 upset win at Arizona.

We will pass on this game and look for better investments for our bankroll on Sunday. Our Best Bets are 13-2 so far and we expect to win going forward – although obviously not at that rate.

There may be a halftime play or halftime betting information tweeted out tonight so follow @EVBettor and @DrBobSports on Twitter for any halftime play information this season.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Patriots

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.3 31.7
Succ Pass Plays 44.9% 37.5%
Sack Rate 5.3% 9.8%
Int Rate 3.8% 1.1%
Deep Pass Rate 23.3% 19.9%
Big Pass Yards 34.0% 38.7%
NYPP 5.7 4.8

Rush

Rush Plays 33.7 26.7
RB YPR 3.2 4.7
Stuff Rate 19.1% 27.8%
Succ Rush Plays 37.0% 48.5%
Big Rush Yards 21.3% 50.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.8

Game

All Snaps 72.0 58.3
Early Down Succ 43.1% 49.2%
Succ Rate 41.2% 42.4%
Big Yards Rate 31.0% 43.6%
Yards Per Play 4.5 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.3 26.7
Run Ratio 46.7% 45.3%
Starting Field Pos 28.2 31.7
Dominance Rating -2.3 2.3

Points 14.0 17.7

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 31.0 42.3
Succ Pass Plays 48.9% 54.9%
Sack Rate 5.3% 4.1%
Int Rate 0.0% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 14.9% 22.4%
Big Pass Yards 44.2% 26.1%
NYPP 6.7 6.4

Rush

Rush Plays 37.3 20.7
RB YPR 3.8 4.2
Stuff Rate 25.6% 18.9%
Succ Rush Plays 40.4% 49.5%
Big Rush Yards 47.4% 36.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.4

Game

All Snaps 68.3 63.0
Early Down Succ 46.3% 56.2%
Succ Rate 45.2% 53.3%
Big Yards Rate 45.3% 30.9%
Yards Per Play 5.4 5.8
Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 2.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 25.5
Run Ratio 55.2% 32.5%
Starting Field Pos 32.2 22.5
Dominance Rating 11.5 -11.5

Points 27.0 15.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Dominance Rating	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CHI	23 – 14 W	-0.5	45.9% / 38.2%	5.4% / 14.7%	2.9% / 3.4%	5.8 / 5.4	37.8% / 60.0%	16.2% / 30.0%	3.5 / 3.7	74 / 54	38.0% / 53.8%	41.9% / 46.3%	41.3% / 42.6%	4.7 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 37.0%	33.0 / 25.1
2	KC	19 – 12 W	6.8	40.0% / 34.1%	5.7% / 9.8%	6.1% / 0.0%	7.3 / 4.2	32.4% / 36.8%	18.9% / 31.6%	2.7 / 6.3	72 / 60	41.2% / 39.1%	36.1% / 35.0%	38.2% / 37.1%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 5.0%	51.4% / 31.7%	35.9 / 29.5
3	@NE	0 – 27 L	-13.1	48.8% / 40.0%	4.7% / 5.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	4.1 / 4.9	40.7% / 48.8%	22.2% / 22.0%	4.0 / 4.6	70 / 61	50.0% / 54.5%	45.7% / 45.9%	13.4% / 51.1%	4.1 / 4.7	2.9% / 0.0%	38.6% / 67.2%	15.6 / 40.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Dominance Rating	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@ARI	23 – 21 W	5.0	51.4% / 50.0%	5.7% / 7.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 6.3	31.3% / 57.9%	34.4% / 15.8%	3.3 / 4.8	67 / 59	36.7% / 53.2%	41.8% / 52.5%	45.9% / 38.1%	5.4 / 5.8	3.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 32.2%	24.7 / 29.2
2	MIA	31 – 24 W	16.3	55.3% / 65.9%	5.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.5%	8.0 / 8.8	41.0% / 50.0%	20.5% / 18.8%	4.2 / 4.4	77 / 60	47.5% / 65.3%	48.1% / 61.7%	38.8% / 41.2%	6.1 / 7.7	1.3% / 3.3%	50.6% / 26.7%	31.4 / 22.7
3	HOU	27 – 0 W	13.1	40.0% / 48.8%	5.0% / 4.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	4.9 / 4.1	48.8% / 40.7%	22.0% / 22.2%	4.6 / 4.0	61 / 70	54.5% / 50.0%	45.9% / 45.7%	51.1% / 13.4%	4.7 / 4.1	0.0% / 2.9%	67.2% / 38.6%	40.5 / 15.6

Houston Texans @

New England Patriots

Thu, Sep 22

5:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis