Game Analysis

Lean – KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Houston

Strong Opinion – CJ Stroud (Hou) – Under 226.5 passing yards to 222.5

• CJ Stroud averaged 7.3 yppp last week, which was good for his 3rd-highest of the season. Stroud generated 79% of his passing yards on in-breaking routes in the Wild Card Round, but I do not expect that to continue on Saturday.
• Kansas City’s defense is allowing only an 18% middle pass rate (4th-lowest) and middle passes against the Chiefs defense are averaging just 0.09 EPA/play (6th).
• Texans’ offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik brought over much of his scheme from Kyle Shanahan after being on the San Francisco staff in 2022. Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a proven game plan versus the scheme. San Francisco’s offense had a league-high 51% success rate through the Conference Championship last season, but the 49ers had just a 45% success rate against Kansas City’s defense in the Super Bowl.
• New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak also came over from the 49ers staff and Spagnuolo’s defense conceded only 13 points and 4.3 yppl to the Saints with Derek Carr in week 5.
• Houston’s offense had just a 37% success rate versus the Chiefs on the Saturday before Christmas but most of the production was from WR Tank Dell, who had 98 yards on 7 targets before a season-ending injury a few minutes into the second half.
• The Texans had only a 30% success rate in the second half against Spagnuolo’s defense without Dell. The league average success rate is 44%.
• The Chiefs have a 67% two-high coverage rate (2nd-highest) and CJ Stroud will struggle against these looks. Stroud’s yppp versus two-high is just 88% of his yppp against single-high safety coverages (26th).
• The Chargers preyed on Houston’s weak offensive line for a 43% pressure rate on Stroud last week, including 3 sacks. Kansas City’s defense had a 37% pressure rate (6th) and is set to cause even more havoc in the backfield than Los Angeles did. The Chargers ranked 19th in pressure rate during the regular season.
• Chiefs’ interior defender Chris Jones ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency and I expect him to collapse the pocket as Houston’s interior offensive line is at fault for 57% of the allowed pressures (28th).
• Kansas City’s secondary will be getting an upgrade with CB Jaylen Watson coming back into the fold. Watson allowed 0.87 yards per cover snap in his 6 games this season compared to backups Nazeeh Johnson and Joshua Williams combining to surrender 1.06 yards per cover snap.
• Texans’ WR Nico Collins averages 0.48 EPA/target (9th) and Kansas City’s defense could put Watson as a part of double teams to contain Collins or shadow Collins with Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie, who ranked 5th in PFF coverage grade.
• Houston’s defense pressured Justin Herbert on more than half of his dropbacks last week and pass protection will certainly be the main concern for a Kansas City offense that doesn’t have a clear answer at left tackle. I believe it will be DJ Humphries because he maximizes the ceiling for the Chiefs if he can get back to the Pro Bowl level he was at in Arizona, but Patrick Mahomes may feel more comfortable with Joe Thuney, who has more than twice as many reps at left tackle than Humphries.
• The Chiefs have not had a competitive game since securing the top seed in the AFC on Christmas. However, I think any rust Kansas City’s offense might have will be neutralized by preparation as Andy Reid is 40-25-1 ATS with extra time to prepare (week 1 or off a bye).
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 10.8 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points.