Game Analysis

Lean – Houston (-4) over JACKSONVILLE

Lean – Under (44)

• Opposing defenses are playing Cover 2 on 20% of CJ Stroud’s dropbacks this season, twice last year’s rate, and Houston’s yppp versus Cover 2 is only 80% of the yppp against other coverages (31st). Stroud will continue to struggle this week as the Jaguars lead the NFL with a 25% Cover 2 rate.
• Stroud has 96 pressures in under 2.5 seconds, but I don’t think he’ll have to worry as much about the quick pressure on Sunday. Jacksonville has only a 30% pressure rate (27th) and edge defender Josh Hines-Allen has 46 pressures (8th) but he will be contained by LT Laremy Tunsil, who ranks 6th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Houston’s defense has surrendered a league-high 14 touchdowns allowed from outside of the red zone which is bound to regress as the Texans are conceding only 5.4 yppp (3rd).
• Trevor Lawrence will likely be back under center, but the Jaguars traded LT Cam Robinson and it will be backup Walker Little struggling across from Texans edge rusher Will Anderson, who has 9.5 sacks (5th).
• Jacksonville’s tight ends have a 29% target share (5th-highest) but Houston’s defense is conceding a league-low 38% success rate to opposing tight ends.
• Texans CB Derek Stingley is conceding only 0.63 yards per cover snap (3rd) and he will shut down WR Brian Thomas, who is averaging 2.27 yards per route run (11th).
• The Jaguars’ yppp against Cover 4 is only 77% of their yppp versus other coverages (27th) and I’m expecting Lawrence to struggle in his first game back as Houston’s defense has the 2nd-highest Cover 4 rate.
• Our model favors the Texans by 3.9 points, with a predicted total of 41.4 points.