Houston Texans @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Nov 13
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 251
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5, Total: 42.5

Game Analysis

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With all the negative things to say about Houston’s tall overpaid quarterback, the Texans still have a winning record (5-3) with the 5th ranked defense in the league.  Even with a negative -7 turnover differential, the Texans are still holding opponents to 20.9 points per game.  The Jaguars are the 23rd ranked offense from an adjusted yards per play standpoint and those numbers are inflated due to their league worst negative game control rating (-7.4), which causes them to throw more in garbage time.  Yes, Blake Bortles has proven he can throw against prevent defenses, however it has been a different story when the game is tight.  In addition, when two defenses that are playing this well meet, there is typically value on the Over, as it is 55% in a 10-year study.  The advanced stats model shows value on the road team and Over, so Texans (-1.5) and OVER (42.5) HOU/JAX are Strong Opinions.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Jaguars
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.9 34.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 41.6% 42.7%
  • Sack Rate 5.0% 6.0%
  • Int Rate 2.8% 1.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 19.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 25.7% 38.8%
  • NYPP 5.0 5.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.9 28.3
  • RB YPR 4.2 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 22.2% 21.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.9% 43.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.9% 38.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 66.8 62.8
  • Early Down Succ 45.1% 47.0%
  • Succ Rate 42.4% 43.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.7% 38.6%
  • Yards Per Play 4.6 5.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.4 28.8
  • Run Ratio 43.0% 44.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.9 29.5
  • Game Control -2.0 2.0
 
  • Points 17.9 20.9
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