Game Analysis
With all the negative things to say about Houston’s tall overpaid quarterback, the Texans still have a winning record (5-3) with the 5th ranked defense in the league. Even with a negative -7 turnover differential, the Texans are still holding opponents to 20.9 points per game. The Jaguars are the 23rd ranked offense from an adjusted yards per play standpoint and those numbers are inflated due to their league worst negative game control rating (-7.4), which causes them to throw more in garbage time. Yes, Blake Bortles has proven he can throw against prevent defenses, however it has been a different story when the game is tight. In addition, when two defenses that are playing this well meet, there is typically value on the Over, as it is 55% in a 10-year study. The advanced stats model shows value on the road team and Over, so Texans (-1.5) and OVER (42.5) HOU/JAX are Strong Opinions.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.9
34.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.6%
42.7%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.9%
19.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.7%
38.8%
-
NYPP
5.0
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.9
28.3
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
22.2%
21.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.9%
43.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.9%
38.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
66.8
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
45.1%
47.0%
-
Succ Rate
42.4%
43.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.7%
38.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.4
28.8
-
Run Ratio
43.0%
44.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
29.5
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.6
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.9%
41.1%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
4.7%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
0.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.2%
13.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.0%
36.1%
-
NYPP
5.8
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.2
30.4
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
28.3%
19.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.5%
44.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.2%
39.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
65.8
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
46.1%
43.2%
-
Succ Rate
43.4%
42.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.1%
39.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.4
29.1
-
Run Ratio
32.1%
46.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.1
32.0
-
Game Control
-7.3
7.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
CHI |
23 – 14 W |
-0.5 |
45.9% / 38.2% |
5.4% / 14.7% |
2.9% / 3.4% |
5.8 / 5.4 |
37.8% / 60.0% |
16.2% / 30.0% |
3.5 / 3.7 |
74 / 54 |
38.0% / 53.8% |
41.9% / 46.3% |
41.3% / 42.6% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 37.0% |
33.0 / 25.1 |
2 |
KC |
19 – 12 W |
6.8 |
40.0% / 34.1% |
5.7% / 9.8% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 4.2 |
32.4% / 36.8% |
18.9% / 31.6% |
2.7 / 6.3 |
72 / 60 |
41.2% / 39.1% |
36.1% / 35.0% |
38.2% / 37.1% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 5.0% |
51.4% / 31.7% |
35.9 / 29.5 |
3 |
@NE |
0 – 27 L |
-13.1 |
48.8% / 40.0% |
4.7% / 5.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 4.9 |
40.7% / 48.8% |
22.2% / 22.0% |
4.0 / 4.6 |
70 / 61 |
50.0% / 54.5% |
45.7% / 45.9% |
13.4% / 51.1% |
4.1 / 4.7 |
2.9% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 67.2% |
15.6 / 40.5 |
4 |
TEN |
27 – 20 W |
6.1 |
50.0% / 36.7% |
2.6% / 3.3% |
5.4% / 3.4% |
6.4 / 6.5 |
54.2% / 56.3% |
25.0% / 9.4% |
4.8 / 3.9 |
62 / 62 |
55.1% / 47.8% |
51.6% / 46.8% |
45.1% / 50.0% |
5.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 51.6% |
28.0 / 30.7 |
5 |
@MIN |
13 – 31 L |
-17.1 |
30.4% / 56.3% |
8.7% / 6.3% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
3.4 / 8.0 |
50.0% / 33.3% |
28.6% / 23.1% |
4.2 / 2.5 |
60 / 71 |
43.5% / 44.4% |
35.0% / 43.7% |
33.6% / 37.7% |
3.6 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
23.3% / 54.9% |
28.3 / 28.6 |
6 |
IND |
26 – 23 W |
-8.0 |
50.0% / 51.4% |
2.5% / 8.6% |
2.6% / 3.1% |
6.4 / 6.6 |
48.3% / 46.9% |
27.6% / 18.8% |
5.5 / 5.0 |
69 / 67 |
51.8% / 53.8% |
49.3% / 49.3% |
49.2% / 49.5% |
6.0 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.0% / 47.8% |
22.4 / 32.5 |
7 |
@DEN |
9 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
35.7% / 44.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 6.3 |
60.0% / 47.2% |
16.0% / 5.6% |
5.6 / 5.3 |
67 / 61 |
48.9% / 52.1% |
44.8% / 45.9% |
19.2% / 43.7% |
4.0 / 5.7 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 59.0% |
25.3 / 33.2 |
8 |
DET |
20 – 13 W |
7.3 |
37.5% / 40.5% |
9.4% / 2.4% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
5.1 / 5.5 |
32.4% / 28.6% |
11.8% / 21.4% |
3.2 / 4.1 |
66 / 56 |
35.6% / 40.9% |
34.8% / 37.5% |
31.3% / 28.7% |
4.1 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.5% / 25.0% |
38.4 / 20.9 |
10 |
@JAC |
24 – 21 W |
6.0 |
35.7% / 43.1% |
3.6% / 3.9% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
3.3 / 4.8 |
48.5% / 36.4% |
33.3% / 31.8% |
5.5 / 3.6 |
61 / 73 |
42.2% / 36.4% |
42.6% / 41.1% |
41.0% / 7.3% |
4.5 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
54.1% / 30.1% |
33.6 / 24.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
GB |
23 – 27 L |
-3.3 |
42.9% / 44.1% |
7.1% / 2.9% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
7.1 / 5.9 |
40.7% / 42.3% |
33.3% / 19.2% |
1.8 / 3.7 |
69 / 60 |
45.8% / 41.9% |
42.0% / 43.3% |
49.0% / 37.6% |
5.1 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.1% / 43.3% |
30.6 / 23.5 |
2 |
@SD |
14 – 38 L |
-21.2 |
42.3% / 46.4% |
3.8% / 10.7% |
4.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 7.4 |
63.6% / 44.4% |
18.2% / 19.4% |
6.3 / 4.2 |
63 / 64 |
52.0% / 45.8% |
46.0% / 45.3% |
42.8% / 60.2% |
6.2 / 5.6 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
17.5% / 56.3% |
22.0 / 40.3 |
3 |
BAL |
17 – 19 L |
-4.2 |
47.6% / 47.6% |
9.5% / 4.8% |
7.9% / 5.0% |
4.0 / 4.7 |
33.3% / 39.1% |
33.3% / 4.3% |
2.3 / 3.7 |
63 / 65 |
44.7% / 51.0% |
42.9% / 44.6% |
9.3% / 20.8% |
3.4 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
33.3% / 35.4% |
36.4 / 28.4 |
4 |
IND |
30 – 27 W |
7.8 |
36.1% / 34.0% |
8.3% / 12.8% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
5.4 / 4.0 |
55.2% / 64.0% |
20.7% / 12.0% |
4.7 / 3.8 |
65 / 72 |
47.2% / 42.6% |
44.6% / 44.4% |
28.1% / 36.6% |
5.1 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 34.7% |
29.7 / 25.0 |
6 |
@CHI |
17 – 16 W |
-5.3 |
51.4% / 40.0% |
5.7% / 2.0% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 5.9 |
28.6% / 44.4% |
28.6% / 29.6% |
2.6 / 3.4 |
56 / 77 |
50.0% / 42.4% |
42.9% / 41.6% |
37.1% / 20.1% |
5.7 / 5.1 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 35.1% |
21.9 / 26.3 |
7 |
OAK |
16 – 33 L |
-9.5 |
31.8% / 35.1% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 5.4 |
29.4% / 50.0% |
17.6% / 22.2% |
6.2 / 4.1 |
61 / 73 |
32.6% / 44.0% |
31.1% / 42.5% |
59.4% / 42.8% |
5.7 / 4.7 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
27.9% / 49.3% |
21.7 / 40.2 |
8 |
@TEN |
22 – 36 L |
-17.5 |
53.6% / 60.9% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 12.2 |
45.5% / 37.2% |
36.4% / 23.3% |
4.4 / 5.0 |
67 / 66 |
54.7% / 41.2% |
52.2% / 45.5% |
35.1% / 56.1% |
5.5 / 7.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
16.4% / 65.2% |
24.2 / 31.4 |
9 |
@KC |
14 – 19 L |
-6.2 |
46.5% / 25.7% |
4.7% / 5.7% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 4.8 |
50.0% / 32.0% |
34.4% / 16.0% |
6.4 / 2.6 |
75 / 60 |
51.7% / 37.5% |
48.0% / 28.3% |
47.7% / 42.7% |
6.0 / 3.9 |
4.0% / 0.0% |
42.7% / 41.7% |
23.9 / 39.6 |
10 |
HOU |
21 – 24 L |
-6.0 |
43.1% / 35.7% |
3.9% / 3.6% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 3.3 |
36.4% / 48.5% |
31.8% / 33.3% |
3.6 / 5.5 |
73 / 61 |
36.4% / 42.2% |
41.1% / 42.6% |
7.3% / 41.0% |
4.5 / 4.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
30.1% / 54.1% |
24.4 / 33.6 |