Game Analysis
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) vs Houston
The Indianapolis offensive line is last in pass blocking efficiency and Frank Reich is doing his best to scheme around it by calling screens. The Colts target RBs on 23.5% of passes (6th) but the Texans have allowed just 164 receiving yards to running backs all season due to Houston DC Lovie Smith’s coverage typically assigning five defenders to play the underneath zones. Carson Wentz consistently went after Baltimore CB Anthony Averett last Monday night and I could see him doing the same with Texans CB Desmond King, who is surrendering 1.70 yards per cover snap and playing in an unfamiliar outside position. King has typically lined up at nickelback during his career.
Houston’s offensive line ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency but they will get notably worse as starting LT Laremy Tunsil has a torn UCL in his left thumb that will require surgery. Tunsil has not conceded a sack and is worth 0.8 points. Brandin Cooks is averaging 2.61 yards per route run (7th) and I expect Davis Mills to look for him downfield when he does have a clean pocket. Indianapolis cornerback Xavier Rhodes and safety Andrew Sendejo are in concussion protocol while cornerback Rock Ya-Sin has missed the last two games dealing with an ankle injury.
Our model favors the Colts by 12.1 points, with a predicted total of 43.3 points, but the line value on Indy is balanced out by a 101-36-2 ATS big road underdog situation that applies to Houston.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
0.0
34.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
0.0%
54.9%
-
Sack Rate
0.0%
5.0%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
3.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
0.0%
17.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
0.0%
43.0%
-
NYPP
0.0
7.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
0.0
30.6
-
RB YPR
0.0
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
0.0%
24.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
0.0%
56.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
0.0%
37.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
0.0
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
0.0
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
0.0%
57.2%
-
Succ Rate
0.0%
53.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
0.0%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Play
0.0
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
0.0
30.4
-
Run Ratio
0.0%
47.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-1.0
1.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.0
32.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.0%
59.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.1%
42.2%
-
NYPP
7.1
8.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.6
26.6
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
23.1%
23.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
55.8%
49.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.6%
33.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
64.6
59.2
-
Early Down Succ
50.2%
60.2%
-
Succ Rate
47.8%
55.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.1%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
2.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.9
-
Run Ratio
40.9%
44.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-0.2
0.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
JAX |
37 – 21 W |
14.4 |
55.9% /
38.5% |
2.9% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
8.6 /
6.4 |
48.8% /
62.5% |
19.5% /
18.8% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
75 /
68 |
50.9% /
47.3% |
52.0% /
44.1% |
46.6% /
38.7% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.7% /
23.5% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
@CLV |
21 – 31 L |
-2.9 |
50.0% /
73.9% |
3.3% /
8.7% |
3.4% /
4.8% |
7.6 /
9.3 |
39.3% /
50.0% |
35.7% /
26.5% |
2.9 /
4.6 |
58 /
57 |
41.9% /
63.8% |
44.8% /
59.6% |
40.8% /
39.6% |
5.3 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.3% /
59.6% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
CAR |
9 – 24 L |
-6.1 |
0.0% /
45.9% |
0.0% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0 /
8.2 |
0.0% /
48.5% |
0.0% /
30.3% |
0.0 /
3.5 |
0 /
70 |
0.0% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
47.1% |
0.0% /
48.9% |
0.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
47.1% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
@BUF |
0 – 40 L |
-15.5 |
29.2% /
61.3% |
12.5% /
3.2% |
19.0% /
3.3% |
3.6 /
8.3 |
27.8% /
62.5% |
22.2% /
17.5% |
2.7 /
5.0 |
42 /
71 |
33.3% /
67.9% |
28.6% /
62.0% |
16.3% /
45.3% |
3.2 /
6.4 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
56.3% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 5 |
NE |
22 – 25 L |
5.1 |
46.9% /
54.8% |
9.4% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
9.8 /
7.5 |
20.8% /
56.7% |
12.5% /
30.0% |
2.8 /
4.2 |
56 /
61 |
29.7% /
57.1% |
35.7% /
55.7% |
47.8% /
38.9% |
6.8 /
5.9 |
1.8% /
1.6% |
42.9% /
49.2% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
16 – 28 L |
-7.6 |
48.8% /
57.7% |
7.3% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
9.8 |
60.0% /
66.7% |
13.3% /
14.8% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
71 /
53 |
60.0% /
69.0% |
53.5% /
62.3% |
9.9% /
51.0% |
5.1 /
7.4 |
1.4% /
1.9% |
42.3% /
50.9% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
LA |
24 – 27 L |
-2.2 |
46.2% /
58.1% |
7.7% /
3.2% |
5.6% /
3.3% |
6.7 /
9.0 |
53.8% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
21.4% |
4.2 /
3.6 |
65 /
59 |
51.9% /
59.2% |
49.2% /
54.2% |
37.2% /
40.6% |
5.7 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
40.0% /
47.5% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
@TEN |
16 – 25 L |
-4.3 |
30.8% /
53.6% |
5.1% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
5.0 /
7.0 |
61.1% /
37.8% |
16.7% /
27.0% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
57 /
65 |
42.9% /
42.3% |
40.4% /
44.6% |
30.6% /
39.8% |
4.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
31.6% /
56.9% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
@MIA |
27 – 17 W |
4.3 |
35.3% /
51.5% |
5.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.0 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
39.4% /
31.3% |
4.2 /
2.2 |
67 /
49 |
37.3% /
58.8% |
38.8% /
51.0% |
56.1% /
47.4% |
5.5 /
4.8 |
1.5% /
4.1% |
49.3% /
32.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 5 |
@BLT |
25 – 31 L |
8.8 |
54.1% /
77.8% |
5.4% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.9 /
9.8 |
61.5% /
44.0% |
23.1% /
24.0% |
4.7 /
3.4 |
63 /
70 |
58.8% /
71.7% |
57.1% /
65.7% |
61.7% /
32.4% |
8.3 /
7.5 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
41.3% /
35.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Houston Texans
@ 
Indianapolis Colts