Houston Texans @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Sep 30
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 253
Odds: Indianapolis Colts -1, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) vs Houston

There are signs Andrew Luck still isn’t 100% as he was subbed off for the end of the game Hail-Mary pass last Sunday and has a very low 5.6% deep pass rate this season, ranking only above Blaine Gabbert. Luck’s previous career low deep pass rate was 10.5% and the limited arm strength has forced him to work with his tight ends more often, which could prove effective against the Texans. Luck has targeted tight ends on 30% of his passes (3rd-most) and should be able to exploit a Texans defense that allowed 14.0 yards per target to opposing tight ends last season, the most in the NFL.

However, there is some regression expected for this Colts offense as they’ve converted 49% of their 3rd-downs this season (3rd) despite ranking 31st in early down efficiency according to our metrics. No offense last year converted on more than 45% of 3rd-downs and I expect the Indianapolis offense to move the chains less often moving forward.

Deshaun Watson is taking some criticism, but I think he’s playing decently this season while leading the Texans offense to 6.2 yards per play (10th) despite an offensive line ranked 31st in pass blocking efficiency. Colts edge rusher Jabaal Sheard, who recorded 66 quarterback pressures last season (15th) has a favorable matchup lining up across from Julie’n Davenport, who’s already allowed 3 sacks and 18 pressures – both worst among tackles.

The Texans somehow find 7 points or fewer, making it 8-straight losses in single-possession games going back to last year. One-score games are typically a coin flip over time so it will be interesting to see how Houston performs if this one is close at the end like it’s expected to be. Our model favors the Colts by 1.8 points with a true total of 46.5, which are both close to the actual line. I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Colts
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.7 32.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.0% 49.5%
  • Sack Rate 9.0% 7.1%
  • Int Rate 2.9% 0.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 27.6% 17.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.5% 37.0%
  • NYPP 7.2 7.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.7 31.0
  • RB YPR 3.7 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 24.7% 16.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 43.4% 35.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 45.5% 34.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 64.3 63.3
  • Early Down Succ 46.4% 43.4%
  • Succ Rate 44.5% 42.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 48.0% 35.8%
  • Yards Per Play 6.3 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.9 31.0
  • Run Ratio 41.0% 49.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.3 23.6
  • Game Control -8.2 8.2
 
  • Points 19.7 24.7
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