Game Analysis
Note: Cleveland was released as a Strong Opinion to subscribers at -3.5 or better and the line has moved out of range. Still lean with the Browns.
Strong Opinion – CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston
Deshaun Watson is averaging a career-high 7.6 yards per pass play but the Texans are 2-6 because the rest of the roster is mostly devoid of talent. It is expected to be another bad weather game in Cleveland so I do not think Watson will be able to carry his team like he did last Sunday with 331 total yards. RT Tytus Howard ranks 46th out of 55 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he has no chance of staying in front of Myles Garrett, who leads the league with 9 sacks. Also, LG Senio Kelemete has a concussion and RG Zach Fulton ranks last among qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency, which gives an opportunity for DT Sheldon Richardson to be disruptive in the interior. Watson will face the combination of wind, rain, and pressure, and Houston’s 30th-ranked ground game likely won’t be able to help the quarterback out.
With Odell Beckham out, Jarvis Landry is Baker Mayfield’s most dangerous receiving option. Landry has the fourth-highest target share in the NFL over the past three weeks (29%) and he should be a focal point in this game on the inside. Eric Murray is surrendering 1.50 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 20th out of 27 qualifiers. Cleveland is coming off a bye and possibly getting Nick Chubb back in the lineup. We should see a heavy dose of the rushing attack in the slop.
Our model favors the Browns by 6.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.4 points (factoring in the heavy winds and some rain), and Cleveland is a Strong Opinion -3.5 at -115 odds or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.4
35.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.2%
51.9%
-
Sack Rate
8.0%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
0.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
21.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.5%
35.7%
-
NYPP
7.3
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.3
32.3
-
RB YPR
3.4
5.3
-
Stuff Rate
22.2%
16.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.2%
51.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.1%
47.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
5.2
Game
-
All Snaps
58.8
67.3
-
Early Down Succ
51.8%
53.6%
-
Succ Rate
49.6%
51.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.0%
43.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
30.0
-
Run Ratio
37.8%
48.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.6
27.2
-
Game Control
-3.9
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.8
40.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.4%
48.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.3%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
16.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.0%
30.9%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.0
26.3
-
RB YPR
4.9
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.8%
17.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.2%
53.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
55.4%
30.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
60.8
66.6
-
Early Down Succ
51.6%
52.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.6%
51.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.6%
31.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
27.7
-
Run Ratio
50.8%
40.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
29.9
-
Game Control
-0.9
0.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@KC |
20 – 34 L |
-8.0 |
55.6% /
66.7% |
11.1% /
3.0% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.2 |
59.1% /
47.1% |
9.1% /
20.6% |
5.4 /
4.9 |
58 /
67 |
59.6% /
56.6% |
56.9% /
56.7% |
33.3% /
19.0% |
6.2 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
50.7% |
22.3 /
37.2 |
| 2 |
BAL |
16 – 33 L |
-8.9 |
55.0% /
46.4% |
10.0% /
14.3% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
35.3% /
45.9% |
17.6% /
5.4% |
3.0 /
6.2 |
57 /
65 |
54.3% /
48.9% |
49.1% /
46.2% |
28.0% /
58.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
29.8% /
56.9% |
23.8 /
27.8 |
| 3 |
@PIT |
21 – 28 L |
1.9 |
40.6% /
50.0% |
15.6% /
5.3% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
5.7 |
20.0% /
52.6% |
26.7% /
13.2% |
1.9 /
4.4 |
47 /
76 |
31.4% /
54.7% |
34.0% /
51.3% |
54.6% /
36.7% |
5.5 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
50.0% |
26.6 /
27.2 |
| 4 |
MIN |
23 – 31 L |
-6.9 |
47.2% /
52.0% |
8.3% /
12.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
9.9 |
50.0% /
57.5% |
19.2% /
10.0% |
3.7 /
4.1 |
62 /
65 |
54.2% /
60.0% |
48.4% /
55.4% |
40.2% /
50.2% |
6.2 /
6.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
41.9% /
61.5% |
26.6 /
27.3 |
| 5 |
JAC |
30 – 14 W |
4.9 |
61.1% /
39.6% |
2.8% /
7.5% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
9.9 /
5.5 |
50.0% /
55.0% |
18.2% /
25.0% |
5.9 /
3.8 |
58 /
73 |
57.4% /
42.6% |
56.9% /
43.8% |
54.7% /
30.8% |
8.4 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
37.9% /
27.4% |
23.4 /
34.0 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
36 – 42 L |
-5.0 |
62.5% /
55.8% |
5.0% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
8.0 /
7.9 |
55.6% /
48.1% |
29.6% /
14.8% |
3.4 /
9.7 |
67 /
70 |
61.2% /
51.7% |
59.7% /
52.9% |
42.5% /
61.6% |
6.1 /
8.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
40.3% /
38.6% |
31.3 /
21.1 |
| 7 |
GB |
20 – 35 L |
-14.2 |
59.5% /
58.8% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
8.3 |
36.4% /
59.3% |
27.3% /
22.2% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
64 /
61 |
55.1% /
61.7% |
51.6% /
59.0% |
29.9% /
40.4% |
5.7 /
6.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
34.4% /
44.3% |
30.8 /
26.1 |
| 9 |
@JAC |
27 – 25 W |
4.8 |
44.1% /
55.0% |
5.9% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
7.9 /
7.4 |
46.4% /
48.1% |
25.0% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
4.3 |
62 /
67 |
48.9% /
56.9% |
45.2% /
52.2% |
50.5% /
45.4% |
6.0 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
45.2% /
40.3% |
26.3 /
27.1 |
| 10 |
@CLE |
7 – 10 L |
-3.8 |
43.8% /
42.9% |
6.3% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
6.0 |
45.5% /
48.8% |
27.3% /
17.1% |
4.1 /
5.6 |
54 /
62 |
43.6% /
48.9% |
44.4% /
46.8% |
26.7% /
44.7% |
4.5 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
66.1% |
28.4 /
16.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
6 – 38 L |
-16.2 |
36.6% /
57.1% |
4.9% /
7.1% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.6 |
48.1% /
40.0% |
18.5% /
26.7% |
5.1 /
3.6 |
68 /
58 |
48.1% /
47.8% |
41.2% /
48.3% |
49.3% /
50.4% |
4.5 /
6.5 |
2.9% /
1.7% |
39.7% /
51.7% |
21.3 /
43.8 |
| 2 |
CIN |
35 – 30 W |
7.1 |
47.8% /
48.4% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
4.5 |
60.0% /
62.5% |
11.4% /
25.0% |
6.1 /
2.8 |
58 /
88 |
56.5% /
51.6% |
55.2% /
52.3% |
54.6% /
6.5% |
7.5 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.1% |
60.3% /
27.3% |
38.3 /
25.3 |
| 3 |
WAS |
34 – 20 W |
2.4 |
56.0% /
40.0% |
8.0% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
8.1% |
5.7 /
5.2 |
43.2% /
50.0% |
27.0% /
13.6% |
4.3 /
4.7 |
62 /
62 |
51.1% /
42.0% |
48.4% /
43.5% |
27.7% /
37.2% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
59.7% /
35.5% |
40.0 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
49 – 38 W |
12.0 |
48.5% /
60.7% |
6.1% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
1.7% |
6.1 /
7.9 |
72.5% /
55.6% |
10.0% /
16.7% |
7.7 /
4.7 |
73 /
79 |
67.8% /
60.6% |
61.6% /
59.5% |
46.9% /
26.3% |
7.0 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
2.5% |
54.8% /
22.8% |
31.8 /
22.8 |
| 5 |
IND |
32 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% /
47.1% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
5.3% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
7.1 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
21.2% /
11.1% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
72 /
52 |
40.7% /
51.3% |
45.8% /
48.1% |
36.9% /
26.0% |
5.3 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.8% /
34.6% |
28.6 /
25.0 |
| 6 |
@PIT |
7 – 38 L |
-17.7 |
37.5% /
36.0% |
12.5% /
8.0% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
36.4% /
54.1% |
31.8% /
10.8% |
3.4 /
3.5 |
54 /
62 |
48.7% /
51.2% |
37.0% /
46.8% |
40.5% /
55.2% |
4.1 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
59.7% |
25.6 /
37.8 |
| 7 |
@CIN |
37 – 34 W |
-2.4 |
72.4% /
63.5% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
3.4% /
2.1% |
10.9 /
7.4 |
36.4% /
57.1% |
22.7% /
14.3% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
51 /
73 |
57.1% /
60.3% |
56.9% /
61.6% |
57.3% /
32.5% |
7.8 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
43.1% /
28.8% |
26.9 /
31.7 |
| 8 |
LV |
6 – 16 L |
-2.0 |
36.0% /
42.3% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
3.9 |
54.5% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
47 /
71 |
45.7% /
60.4% |
44.7% /
59.2% |
34.5% /
22.7% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
63.4% |
26.5 /
27.1 |
| 10 |
HOU |
10 – 7 W |
3.8 |
42.9% /
43.8% |
4.8% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.8 |
48.8% /
45.5% |
17.1% /
27.3% |
5.6 /
4.1 |
62 /
54 |
48.9% /
43.6% |
46.8% /
44.4% |
44.7% /
26.7% |
5.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
66.1% /
40.7% |
16.8 /
28.4 |
Houston Texans
@ 
Cleveland Browns