Houston Texans @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Nov 15
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 255
Odds: Cleveland Browns -3.5, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Note: Cleveland was released as a Strong Opinion to subscribers at -3.5 or better and the line has moved out of range. Still lean with the Browns.

Strong Opinion – CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston

Deshaun Watson is averaging a career-high 7.6 yards per pass play but the Texans are 2-6 because the rest of the roster is mostly devoid of talent. It is expected to be another bad weather game in Cleveland so I do not think Watson will be able to carry his team like he did last Sunday with 331 total yards. RT Tytus Howard ranks 46th out of 55 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he has no chance of staying in front of Myles Garrett, who leads the league with 9 sacks. Also, LG Senio Kelemete has a concussion and RG Zach Fulton ranks last among qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency, which gives an opportunity for DT Sheldon Richardson to be disruptive in the interior. Watson will face the combination of wind, rain, and pressure, and Houston’s 30th-ranked ground game likely won’t be able to help the quarterback out.

With Odell Beckham out, Jarvis Landry is Baker Mayfield’s most dangerous receiving option. Landry has the fourth-highest target share in the NFL over the past three weeks (29%) and he should be a focal point in this game on the inside. Eric Murray is surrendering 1.50 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 20th out of 27 qualifiers. Cleveland is coming off a bye and possibly getting Nick Chubb back in the lineup. We should see a heavy dose of the rushing attack in the slop.

Our model favors the Browns by 6.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.4 points (factoring in the heavy winds and some rain), and Cleveland is a Strong Opinion -3.5 at -115 odds or better.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Browns


  • Pass Plays 36.4 35.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 52.2% 51.9%
  • Sack Rate 8.0% 6.3%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 0.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.1% 21.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.5% 35.7%
  • NYPP 7.3 7.0


  • Rush Plays 22.3 32.3
  • RB YPR 3.4 5.3
  • Stuff Rate 22.2% 16.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.2% 51.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.1% 47.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 5.2


  • All Snaps 58.8 67.3
  • Early Down Succ 51.8% 53.6%
  • Succ Rate 49.6% 51.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.0% 43.0%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 30.0
  • Run Ratio 37.8% 48.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.6 27.2
  • Game Control -3.9 3.9
  • Points 22.2 28.0
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