Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Carolina Team Total Over (20 -115)

Lean – CAROLINA (+3.5) over Houston

· Carolina head coach Frank Reich announced during the team’s bye week that he’s handing over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who worked with Sean McVay. The new scheme on offense should look noticeably different than Reich’s play-calling and give the Panthers an edge in the first few weeks before defenses get film on Brown’s system.

· Bryce Young has a 39.1% pressure rate (9th-highest) but I expect the rookie quarterbacks to have clean pockets in this game with some changes up front.

· Carolina’s interior offensive line has been responsible for 63.3% of the Panthers’ pressures (2nd-most) because of a season ending injury that G Brady Christensen suffered in the season and with starting guard Austin Corbett working his way back from a torn ACL that occurred in the 2022 regular-season finale.

· Panthers’ backup rookie LG Chandler Zavala ranks last in pass-blocking efficiency out of 54 qualifying guards, but he will be benched on Sunday for Corbett, who ranked 10th in pass-blocking efficiency last year. Corbett should limit Texans’ interior defender Maliek Collins, whose 17 pressures rank 20th.

· Carolina RG Calvin Throckmorton ranks 11th in pass-blocking efficiency. The new five starters of Ikem Ekwonu, Austin Corbett, Bradley Bozeman, Calvin Throckmorton, and Taylor Moton make a top 10 offensive line according to our metrics.

· The Panthers are a zone-blitzing defense with an 88.3% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest) and a 42.6% blitz rate (6th-highest). CJ Stroud is great against the blitz but not so much against zone and something’s got to give. Stroud’s yards per attempt versus the blitz is 26% higher than against a standard pass rush (5th-largest gap) and his yards per attempt versus zone is a league-low 71% of his yards per attempt against man coverage.

· Texans WR Nico Collins has 40% of his targets over the middle (2nd-most). Carolina’s defense will get back starting safety Xavier Woods for his first game since September to contain the deep routes between the numbers, but the other starting S Von Bell is out with a quadriceps injury.

· Houston’s offense ranks 5th in run play rate adjusted for situation and they will have a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense allowing a league-high 0.16 EPA/rush.

· Our model favors the Texans by 2.0 with a predicted total of 44.7 points, but the matchups favor Carolina enough to give us value on their team total going over a key number.

The Carolina Team Total is a Strong Opinion Over 20 at -120 odds or better (or Over 19.5 -150 or better).