Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **ATLANTA (-1) over Houston

· Atlanta’s offense is predicated on running the football and the reason they’ve scored just 13 points in the last two weeks is they’ve gone against solid rush defenses. Detroit’s defense is conceding a 30% rush success rate (2nd) and Jacksonville’s defense is allowing a 32% rush success rate (3rd). I expect the Falcons ground game to reassert themselves in this matchup versus a Texans rush defense ranked 29th by our numbers.

· Desmond Ridder’s yards per pass attempt against zone coverage is 34% higher than it is versus man defense (8th-largest gap). Ridder will be able to attack Houston’s defense as they have an 86% zone rate (4th-highest).

· Atlanta’s offense targets tight ends on a league-high 37.4% of passes. Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts will be open against a Texans defense allowing a 58% success rate to tight ends.

· Houston’s offense ranks 4th in situation-adjusted run play rate but they won’t be able to get anything going on the ground as the Falcons defense is conceding a league-low -0.24 EPA/rush.

· CJ Stroud is averaging 0.10 EPA/play (13th) and he’s built up a rapport with WR Nico Collins, who gained 168 yards and two touchdowns on 24 snaps last week. Collins will likely be shadowed on Sunday by Atlanta cornerback AJ Terrell, who is allowing just 0.72 yards per cover snap (9th).

· Falcons’ safety Jessie Bates has 3 interceptions, which is tied for the league lead. We saw Bates bait rookie QB Bryce Young into some Dagger Concept interceptions in week 1 and I could see him get another on Sunday as Stroud loves in-breaking routes to Collins.

· The Texans’ offensive line will have LT Laremey Tunsil and RT Tytus Howard on the field together for the first time this season, but Atlanta’s pass rush comes from up the middle where Houston is vulnerable. Falcons’ interior defenders Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata have combined for 23 pressures.

· The Texans are already using a backup center and they will be down to their 3rd option at left guard after Kenyon Green went out in training camp and Kendrick Green tore his meniscus. Kendrick Green ranked 11th in pass-blocking efficiency before the tear.

· Our model favors the Falcons by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 41.8 points.

Atlanta is a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or less and 1-Star at -2.5 (-110).