Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Green Bay (+7 -115) over PHILADELPHIA

Lean – Under (46.5)

· Most of Green Bay’s bright spots in the passing game this season have come from receivers lined up on the inside. Packers slot receivers are gaining 8.8 yards per target while receivers from anywhere else are averaging 6.6 yards per target. Both Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard are gaining more than 2 yards per route run in the slot.

· Philadelphia’s main shortcoming on defense currently is defending the slot and I expect Aaron Rodgers to exceed expectations versus a defense allowing only a 42% dropback success rate (3rd). Eagles starting nickelback Avonte Maddox (hamstring) has been out since week 10. Backup nickelback Josiah Scott is allowing 0.58 more yards per cover snap in the slot than Maddox.

· Green Bay’s offensive line is finally healthy for the first time since 2020 with LT David Bakhtiari on the field. The Packers offensive line has allowed only 14 pressures the last two weeks to the Cowboys and Titans. Philadelphia’s defense has an 8.6% sack rate (7th) but I think Rodgers should have adequate protection on Sunday night.

· The Eagles are surrendering a league-high 46.6% success rate on the ground. However, Philadelphia has tried to address this by signing interior defenders Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. Suh and Joseph are both in the twilight of their careers and it remains to be seen if there can make a real difference. Suh and Joseph ranked 56th and 58th respectively in run defense grade by PFF out of 82 qualifying interior defenders last year. Green Bay’s offense has a 45.5% rush success rate (4th).

· The Eagles rank 4th in pass blocking efficiency and should hold up versus a Packers pass rush missing edge defender Rashan Gary.

· However, the passing offense is suffering without TE Dallas Goedert, who is 2nd in the NFL averaging 0.74 EPA/target. We saw Goedert’s importance last week when Jalen Hurts threw for only 190 passing yards.

· Green Bay CB Jaire Alexander ranks 13th in coverage grade by PFF and he will contain wide receiver AJ Brown, who is gaining 0.47 EPA/target (7th).

· Philadelphia’s offense will likely focus on the ground game where they are averaging +0.056 EPA/rush (2nd). The Packers are surrendering a 45.2% success rate on the ground (29th).

· Our model favors the Eagles by only 4.2 points, with a predicted total of 42.3 points.

Green Bay is a Strong Opinion at +6.5 or more.