Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NY GIANTS (+7) over Green Bay

• The Giants are 2-8 for the third consecutive season, and they fired head coach Brian Daboll. Mike Kafka will serve as the interim and teams in the first game with an interim head coach are 16-7 ATS in the last 10 years because it acts as an emotional reset for the locker room, and new coaches generally deploy subtle scheme tweaks that haven’t been captured on film.
• Head coach is not the only major change for New York this week, as they are making a change at quarterback, starting Jameis Winston. The Giants are averaging 5.9 yards per pass play this season, and Winston’s career yppp is 6.7.
• New York is without WR Malik Nabers, but the offensive line ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency, and I think we could see Winston throw for his career average.  I’m not marking an upgrade yet, but I think many of us suspect Winston has been the top quarterback on this roster all year, and we’ll find out as long as Jaxon Dart is recovering from his concussion.
• Jordan Love’s -0.15 EPA/dropback last week was the 4th-lowest of his career as the Packers are down C Elgton Jenkins and have a banged-up group of receivers. TE Tucker Kraft is out, WR Matthew Golden couldn’t suit up last game because of a shoulder injury, and WR Jayden Reed is still out because of clavicle and foot injuries. WR Christian Watson, WR Dontayvion Wicks, and WR Savion Williams played despite being limited during the week.
• Kraft is the most substantial loss, and we’re adjusting Green Bay’s offense down 0.7 points, but it could be even more. Kraft still leads the team in receiving yards and has averaged 11.1 yards per target, which is easily the best of any receiver on the team. The Packers are averaging 1.5 yppl more when Kraft is on the field this year and 0.22 EPA/play better than when Kraft is off the field.
• Kraft’s loss will be felt extra in this matchup as the Giants have a 40% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest). Kraft is averaging a league-high 4.16 yards per route run against man coverage, and Green Bay’s backup TE Luke Musgrave is averaging only 0.56 yards per route run versus man coverage.
• New York’s defense will feel more secure in man-coverage on Sunday, likely getting back CB Paulson Adebo, who is allowing 7.0 yards per target compared to backup CB Deonte Banks surrendering 12.2 yards per target.
• The Packers would like to run the ball this week, but Green Bay’s running backs are 69 yards below expectation (30th).
• Our model favors the Packers by just 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 42.9 points, and Green Bay applies to an 11-43-1 ATS situation that applies to favorites coming off consecutive upset losses. New York, meanwhile, applies to a 54-19-1 ATS home dog contrary angle that is based on their bad record and current losing streak.

New York is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion at +6.5).