Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (37) – Green Bay (-6.5) at NY GIANTS

· Green Bay’s offense averaged 0.28 EPA/play in week 13 (3rd) and got at least 2 first downs on every drive against the Chiefs.

· Jordan Love had a career-high +14.7 EPA on his dropbacks and he threw for over 100 yards off of play action for the third straight game last Monday night, but I do not expect Love will have the time in the pocket for play action to develop against Wink Martindale’s defense.

· The Giants have a 48.2% blitz rate (2nd-highest) and Love’s yards per attempt against the blitz is only 88% of his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush (28th).

· The Packers will likely be without starting WR Christian Watson and starting TE Luke Musgrave. Green Bay’s remaining receivers will not be able to win early enough in the route on 3rd downs to beat the blitz.

· Furthermore, Jordan Love’s yards per attempt against man coverage is only 64% of his yards per attempt versus zone (31st) and he will struggle as New York’s defense has a 39.1% man-coverage rate (3rd-highest).

· Giants NT Dexter Lawrence leads all interior defenders in pass-rushing efficiency, but he is likely out. Lawrence is worth 1.2 points according to our metrics.

· The Giants give Tommy DeVito a first read and if it’s not there he is extremely liable to get sacked. DeVito has an incredible 21.1% sack rate.

· To put that in perspective, David Carr’s rookie season is the current NFL record for most sacks with 76. Carr’s sack rate with the Texans in 2002 was 14.6%.

· Green Bay edge defender Rashan Gary ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc as New York’s right tackles are surrendering a 9.7% pressure rate this year.

· Our model favors the Packers by 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 34.0 points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 37 -115 odds or better.