Game Analysis

Note: The Under was released as a 1-Star Best Bet when the total was 44.5 early in the week. The total is down to 42.5 and would not be a play at that number, although I’d still lean Under.

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (44.5) – MINNESOTA (-1) vs Green Bay

· The Vikings outgained the Lions by 2.5 yppl last week but lost due to Nick Mullens throwing 4 interceptions, which prompted head coach Kevin O’Connell to make another change at quarterback.

· Jaren Hall has only a 38.5% success rate on 13 plays this season and he was drafted in the 5th round. Hall is almost certainly a downgrade from Mullens, who is averaging 0.16 EPA/play this season (5th), which includes the interceptions.

· Hall will not have Minnesota’s security blanket, tight end TJ Hockenson, who is averaging 1.89 yards per route run (4th) but tore his ACL and MCL in his right knee.

· Furthermore, Vikings WR Jordan Addison exited last week with a sprained ankle, and it will affect this offense if he is limited as wide receiver KJ Osborn is averaging 0.21 EPA/target fewer than Addison.

· Minnesota RG Ed Ingram ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency, and he will struggle across from interior defender Kenny Clark, who has 50 pressures (9th).

· Green Bay’s offense will likely be without starting wide receivers Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks, who leads the Packers with 2.01 yards per route run.

· Jordan Love got contributions from the ground game last week with Green Bay RB Aaron Jones rushing for a season-high 127 yards in Carolina, but it will be a much different test on Sunday. The Panthers’ defense is not nearly as good defending the run as a Vikings’ defense that ranks 9th versus the run according to our metrics.

· Our model favors the Vikings by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points, and this game applies to a 92-47-1 Division Under situation.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 44 points or more (Strong Opinion to 43).