Game Analysis
3-Star Best Bet Teaser Cleveland (+8.5) with Kansas City (-1)
Teaser applies at Cleveland +7.5 or more and KC -2 or less
Lean – KANSAS CITY (-7) over Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers is out this week, and we value him as worth 7 points over backup Jordan Love. Matt LaFleur hasn’t shown much confidence in Love as he was the only first-round rookie QB in the past decade to not play a single snap and was inactive (third quarterback) for all 16 games and both postseason games in 2020. Love was also just average on a compensated yards per pass play basis in college (below average his final season) and he threw 17 interceptions in 13 games in 2019.
Green Bay’s defense has been without Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander and Pro Bowl edge defender Za’Darius Smith since week 5. Alexander and Smith are worth about 2 points combined but the vulnerability hasn’t shown yet. The Packers benefitted from two interceptions by Joe Burrow, then versus a Chicago offense averaging a league-low 4.3 yppp (next lowest is Miami at 5.3 yppp), Washington did not punt in week 7 but only scored 10 points due to red zone incompetence, and they played keep-away last Thursday – limiting Arizona’s offense to only 55 snaps. Green Bay’s defense will be closer to average than the 16.8 points per game they’ve allowed in the previous four games without Alexander and Smith.
The Packers offense could have All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari making his season debut on Sunday. Bakhtiari hasn’t played since tearing his ACL last December, but he ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency before going down. Love and LaFleur will also be glad to get back Davante Adams, who is averaging 3.25 yards per route run (3rd) – a number that will surely go down with Love at quarterback.
Kansas City’s defense got 0.5 points better with the addition of edge defender Melvin Ingram, who has 385 pressures since 2014 (9th). The new piece will slide Chris Jones inside where he is more comfortable. Jones ranked 3rd in pass rushing efficiency last season on the interior. We saw signs of the impending move back last Monday night when Jones lined up as interior defender on 28 snaps compared to just 14 snaps on the edge.
The Chiefs have not been a threat to run the ball in their RPOs, which has hurt Patrick Mahomes’ ability to stretch the field. Kansas City’s ground game ranks 2nd in efficiency and the offense would benefit from handing the ball off more often early in games.
Our model favors the Chiefs by 11.0 points, with a predicted total of 49.5 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.38
36.50
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.7%
49.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.4%
34.8%
-
NYPP
6.48
5.94
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.75
24.25
-
RB YPR
4.13
4.17
-
Stuff Rate
21.8%
18.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.6%
59.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.2%
41.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.20
4.72
Game
-
All Snaps
61.13
60.75
-
Early Down Succ
48.9%
57.9%
-
Succ Rate
46.8%
53.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.3%
36.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.52
5.45
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.56
28.61
-
Run Ratio
41.6%
39.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
1.84
-1.84
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.63
34.63
-
Succ Pass Plays
56.0%
52.0%
-
Sack Rate
4.5%
4.0%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.6%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.2%
44.7%
-
NYPP
6.64
7.79
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.25
26.13
-
RB YPR
4.27
4.25
-
Stuff Rate
16.5%
19.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
61.3%
58.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.7%
39.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.81
4.66
Game
-
All Snaps
68.88
60.75
-
Early Down Succ
60.0%
56.7%
-
Succ Rate
58.4%
54.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.8%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.99
6.44
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.83
29.06
-
Run Ratio
35.5%
43.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-2.25
2.25
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NO |
3 – 38 L |
-15.26 |
35.1% /
61.9% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
5.03 /
7.19 |
20.0% /
53.8% |
13.3% /
23.1% |
2.87 /
4.38 |
52 /
60 |
35.1% /
56.3% |
30.8% /
56.7% |
25.8% /
36.0% |
4.40 /
5.37 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
65.0% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 2 |
DET |
35 – 17 W |
3.29 |
60.0% /
54.1% |
10.0% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
7.57 /
6.38 |
41.9% /
57.9% |
25.8% /
10.5% |
3.10 /
5.68 |
61 /
56 |
51.0% /
60.0% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
26.8% /
41.0% |
5.30 /
6.14 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
50.8% /
33.9% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 3 |
@SF |
30 – 28 W |
6.58 |
47.1% /
45.5% |
2.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
7.44 /
5.25 |
52.0% /
52.4% |
8.0% /
28.6% |
4.00 /
3.00 |
59 /
65 |
51.1% /
48.0% |
49.2% /
47.7% |
41.0% /
17.2% |
5.98 /
4.52 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
42.4% /
32.3% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 4 |
PIT |
27 – 17 W |
6.20 |
48.7% /
45.2% |
7.7% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
6.05 /
5.24 |
57.6% /
62.5% |
21.2% /
12.5% |
3.97 /
3.88 |
72 /
58 |
52.7% /
56.8% |
52.8% /
50.0% |
43.0% /
32.7% |
5.10 /
4.86 |
1.4% /
1.7% |
45.8% /
27.6% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
25 – 22 W |
1.94 |
43.9% /
48.8% |
4.9% /
7.3% |
2.6% /
5.3% |
8.12 /
6.44 |
36.4% /
62.5% |
31.8% /
25.0% |
6.05 /
4.29 |
63 /
65 |
44.0% /
59.6% |
41.3% /
53.8% |
63.3% /
39.1% |
7.40 /
5.65 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
36.9% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 6 |
@CHI |
24 – 14 W |
2.31 |
50.0% /
45.2% |
11.5% /
12.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
6.50 /
4.42 |
51.6% /
57.7% |
25.8% /
15.4% |
4.97 /
5.38 |
57 /
57 |
55.3% /
55.8% |
50.9% /
50.9% |
43.8% /
44.6% |
5.67 /
4.86 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.4% /
45.6% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 7 |
WAS |
10 – 24 L |
7.74 |
55.3% /
48.8% |
7.9% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.50 /
5.73 |
26.7% /
62.1% |
26.7% /
10.3% |
3.80 /
6.72 |
53 /
70 |
47.4% /
62.3% |
47.2% /
54.3% |
29.9% /
37.6% |
5.74 /
6.14 |
1.9% /
1.4% |
28.3% /
41.4% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 8 |
@ARZ |
24 – 21 W |
1.94 |
44.7% /
54.3% |
2.6% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
4.84 /
7.43 |
58.8% /
70.0% |
20.6% /
15.0% |
4.44 /
3.70 |
72 /
55 |
54.7% /
64.3% |
51.4% /
60.0% |
24.5% /
46.0% |
4.65 /
6.07 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
47.2% /
36.4% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CLV |
33 – 29 W |
-5.25 |
60.5% /
60.0% |
5.3% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
8.53 /
10.13 |
56.5% /
76.0% |
21.7% /
8.0% |
3.17 /
6.12 |
61 /
55 |
57.4% /
72.7% |
59.0% /
67.3% |
36.3% /
48.3% |
6.51 /
8.31 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
37.7% /
45.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 2 |
@BLT |
35 – 36 L |
5.68 |
64.5% /
59.3% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
11.06 /
8.52 |
50.0% /
68.3% |
22.2% /
17.1% |
3.44 /
6.12 |
49 /
68 |
65.1% /
66.1% |
59.2% /
64.7% |
43.7% /
48.6% |
8.27 /
7.07 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
60.3% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 3 |
LAC |
24 – 30 L |
-3.88 |
54.3% /
53.8% |
4.3% /
2.6% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
5.46 /
7.05 |
70.0% /
40.9% |
3.3% /
27.3% |
6.20 /
3.50 |
76 /
61 |
61.5% /
52.1% |
60.5% /
49.2% |
31.6% /
32.1% |
5.75 /
5.77 |
2.6% /
0.0% |
39.5% /
36.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 4 |
@PHI |
42 – 30 W |
4.73 |
77.4% /
52.9% |
3.2% /
5.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
8.74 /
7.02 |
71.9% /
68.4% |
6.3% /
10.5% |
6.25 /
5.42 |
63 /
70 |
73.1% /
61.1% |
74.6% /
57.1% |
47.7% /
32.4% |
7.48 /
6.59 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
27.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 5 |
BUF |
20 – 38 L |
-8.36 |
50.0% /
46.2% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
4.86 /
12.12 |
56.5% /
50.0% |
21.7% /
35.7% |
5.22 /
4.32 |
79 /
54 |
56.3% /
48.8% |
51.9% /
48.1% |
18.9% /
64.7% |
4.96 /
8.07 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
29.1% /
51.9% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
31 – 13 W |
4.72 |
54.0% /
38.5% |
6.0% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
2.6% |
7.80 /
4.67 |
46.4% /
63.2% |
21.4% /
10.5% |
3.89 /
4.95 |
78 /
58 |
49.1% /
45.5% |
51.3% /
46.6% |
40.7% /
23.6% |
6.40 /
4.76 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
35.9% /
32.8% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 7 |
@TEN |
3 – 27 L |
-17.81 |
52.7% /
65.5% |
7.3% /
3.4% |
2.0% /
3.6% |
4.67 /
9.17 |
76.9% /
48.6% |
23.1% /
22.9% |
5.92 /
2.94 |
68 /
64 |
62.3% /
54.9% |
57.4% /
56.3% |
31.2% /
38.9% |
4.91 /
5.77 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
19.1% /
54.7% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 8 |
NYG |
20 – 17 W |
2.21 |
48.0% /
44.4% |
4.0% /
8.3% |
2.1% /
3.0% |
5.22 /
6.33 |
63.0% /
50.0% |
22.2% /
20.0% |
3.96 /
3.60 |
77 /
56 |
55.4% /
52.5% |
53.2% /
46.4% |
12.0% /
47.3% |
4.78 /
5.36 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
35.7% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
Green Bay Packers
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs