Green Bay Packers @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Nov 7
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 469
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -7, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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3-Star Best Bet Teaser Cleveland (+8.5) with Kansas City (-1)

Teaser applies at Cleveland +7.5 or more and KC -2 or less

Lean – KANSAS CITY (-7) over Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers is out this week, and we value him as worth 7 points over backup Jordan Love. Matt LaFleur hasn’t shown much confidence in Love as he was the only first-round rookie QB in the past decade to not play a single snap and was inactive (third quarterback) for all 16 games and both postseason games in 2020. Love was also just average on a compensated yards per pass play basis in college (below average his final season) and he threw 17 interceptions in 13 games in 2019.

Green Bay’s defense has been without Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander and Pro Bowl edge defender Za’Darius Smith since week 5. Alexander and Smith are worth about 2 points combined but the vulnerability hasn’t shown yet. The Packers benefitted from two interceptions by Joe Burrow, then versus a Chicago offense averaging a league-low 4.3 yppp (next lowest is Miami at 5.3 yppp), Washington did not punt in week 7 but only scored 10 points due to red zone incompetence, and they played keep-away last Thursday – limiting Arizona’s offense to only 55 snaps. Green Bay’s defense will be closer to average than the 16.8 points per game they’ve allowed in the previous four games without Alexander and Smith.

The Packers offense could have All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari making his season debut on Sunday. Bakhtiari hasn’t played since tearing his ACL last December, but he ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency before going down. Love and LaFleur will also be glad to get back Davante Adams, who is averaging 3.25 yards per route run (3rd) – a number that will surely go down with Love at quarterback.

Kansas City’s defense got 0.5 points better with the addition of edge defender Melvin Ingram, who has 385 pressures since 2014 (9th). The new piece will slide Chris Jones inside where he is more comfortable. Jones ranked 3rd in pass rushing efficiency last season on the interior. We saw signs of the impending move back last Monday night when Jones lined up as interior defender on 28 snaps compared to just 14 snaps on the edge.

The Chiefs have not been a threat to run the ball in their RPOs, which has hurt Patrick Mahomes’ ability to stretch the field. Kansas City’s ground game ranks 2nd in efficiency and the offense would benefit from handing the ball off more often early in games.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 11.0 points, with a predicted total of 49.5 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Chiefs


  • Pass Plays 35.38 36.50
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.7% 49.7%
  • Sack Rate 6.4% 6.8%
  • Int Rate 1.1% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.6% 16.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.4% 34.8%
  • NYPP 6.48 5.94


  • Rush Plays 25.75 24.25
  • RB YPR 4.13 4.17
  • Stuff Rate 21.8% 18.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.6% 59.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.2% 41.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.20 4.72


  • All Snaps 61.13 60.75
  • Early Down Succ 48.9% 57.9%
  • Succ Rate 46.8% 53.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.3% 36.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.52 5.45
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.56 28.61
  • Run Ratio 41.6% 39.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 1.84 -1.84
  • Points 22.25 22.63
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