Game Analysis

Green Bay (-4) vs JACKSONVILLE

• Trevor Lawrence averaged a career-high 0.60 EPA/dropback last week with 82% of his passing yards coming on in-breaking routes. However, those routes won’t be there for Lawrence on Sunday against Green Bay’s safeties, as the Packers are allowing -0.07 EPA/target across the middle (5th).
• The Jaguars ran for 171 yards against the Patriots, and they will need to continue with the ground game versus a Green Bay rush defense rated 29th by our numbers and likely without starting linebacker Quay Walker.
• Lawrence can then hit the Packers downfield on play-action like he did last week when he connected on two deep targets for 82 yards. Lawrence shouldn’t see collapsing pockets as Jacksonville’s interior offensive line is only at fault for 37% of the pressures (7th-fewest) and they will limit interior defender Kenny Clark, whose 16 pressures rank 19th. However, starting LT Cam Robinson departed last game with a concussion after just five snaps and is worth about a half point.
• This is a great matchup for Jordan Love against a Jaguars defense with the 3rd-highest Cover 2 rate and a league-high 84% standard pass rush rate. Green Bay’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is 23% more than when blitzed (4th) and they lead the NFL averaging 63% more yppp versus Cover 2 than other coverages.
• Our model favors the Packers by 2.0 points, with a predicted total of 49.6 points, but we get Green Bay by 4.0 after factoring in the favorable matchups.