Game Analysis
INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) vs Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers has at least 280 passing yards and three touchdowns in each of the past four weeks and he will likely have time in the pocket this Sunday to help him continue that streak. Guards Elgton Jenkins and Lucas Patrick have combined to allow only 17 pressures thus far and the pair will limit interior defender DeForest Buckner (11th in pass rushing efficiency). However, Indianapolis is the only pass defense in the NFL to contest at least 20% of opponents’ targets. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes is conceding a reception on only one out of every 15.4 cover snaps (7th) and he will battle with Davante Adams, one of only two players in the league averaging more than 3 yards per route run. Rodgers is targeting running backs on 28% of his passing attempts (4th) but the Colts are conceding only 5.3 yards per target to opposing running backs. Aaron Jones may be limited as a receiver out of the backfield and he also will likely struggle as a runner against the Indianapolis 3rd-rated rush defense.
Nyheim Hines played over half of the Colts’ offensive snaps last Thursday night for the first time since week 1 and had two touchdowns along with 115 scrimmage yards. There’s reason to believe Philip Rivers will feature the dual-threat RB again in this matchup as the Packers are surrendering 7.4 yards per target to opposing running backs. Jaire Alexander is conceding just 0.57 yards per cover snap (3rd) but he was held out of the previous game with a hand injury. According to our metrics, Green Bay’s defense is 1.2 points better than they were last week with Alexander back healthy.
Our model makes Indianapolis a 1.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 50.6 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.1
33.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.2%
50.6%
-
Sack Rate
3.3%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
1.0%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.9%
15.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.1%
33.2%
-
NYPP
7.7
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.4
24.3
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
21.5%
16.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.9%
52.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.6%
37.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
58.1
-
Early Down Succ
53.6%
54.4%
-
Succ Rate
51.6%
51.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.2%
36.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.2
27.8
-
Run Ratio
43.2%
42.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
27.3
-
Game Control
4.2
-4.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.4
34.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.0%
46.1%
-
Sack Rate
2.9%
7.3%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.2%
20.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.5%
37.9%
-
NYPP
7.3
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.1
26.0
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
19.1%
24.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
42.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.6%
30.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
64.6
60.1
-
Early Down Succ
51.7%
46.5%
-
Succ Rate
48.5%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.8%
35.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
28.8
-
Run Ratio
43.2%
43.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.9
24.5
-
Game Control
2.9
-2.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
43 – 34 W |
6.6 |
56.8% /
59.3% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
8.3 /
9.2 |
65.6% /
72.7% |
6.3% /
9.1% |
4.9 /
6.1 |
76 /
49 |
63.9% /
69.0% |
60.5% /
65.3% |
48.5% /
51.8% |
6.9 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
44.9% |
33.6 /
22.8 |
| 2 |
DET |
42 – 21 W |
5.7 |
54.8% /
45.9% |
3.2% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.4 /
5.9 |
57.1% /
61.9% |
8.6% /
14.3% |
7.4 /
4.2 |
66 /
58 |
58.8% /
53.3% |
56.1% /
51.7% |
58.2% /
37.1% |
7.4 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.0% /
36.2% |
28.0 /
20.0 |
| 3 |
@NO |
37 – 30 W |
1.6 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
3.0% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
7.2 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
26.9% /
15.0% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
59 /
58 |
55.6% /
51.1% |
52.5% /
50.0% |
50.9% /
33.2% |
6.3 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
44.1% /
34.5% |
33.9 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
ATL |
30 – 16 W |
10.5 |
61.8% /
53.5% |
2.9% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
5.8 |
34.6% /
48.0% |
34.6% /
24.0% |
3.4 /
3.1 |
60 /
68 |
50.0% /
57.7% |
50.0% /
51.5% |
46.2% /
10.4% |
6.7 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
36.8% |
32.6 /
23.4 |
| 6 |
@TB |
10 – 38 L |
-13.0 |
35.0% /
46.4% |
12.5% /
0.0% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
2.7 /
5.9 |
38.1% /
45.7% |
42.9% /
8.6% |
4.5 /
4.5 |
61 /
63 |
34.1% /
49.0% |
36.1% /
46.0% |
32.3% /
42.3% |
3.3 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.4% /
55.6% |
23.6 /
32.9 |
| 7 |
@HOU |
35 – 20 W |
14.2 |
58.8% /
59.5% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
6.8 |
59.3% /
36.4% |
22.2% /
27.3% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
61 /
64 |
61.7% /
55.1% |
59.0% /
51.6% |
40.4% /
29.9% |
6.2 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
44.3% /
34.4% |
26.1 /
30.8 |
| 8 |
MIN |
22 – 28 L |
-3.6 |
52.4% /
60.0% |
2.4% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
10.1 |
58.3% /
55.9% |
8.3% /
20.6% |
4.5 /
5.1 |
66 /
49 |
57.1% /
57.5% |
54.5% /
57.1% |
27.0% /
42.3% |
6.1 /
6.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
69.4% |
27.8 /
24.6 |
| 9 |
@SF |
34 – 17 W |
15.7 |
53.1% /
41.7% |
3.1% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
9.2 /
7.8 |
41.9% /
52.9% |
19.4% /
23.5% |
3.6 /
3.2 |
63 /
53 |
46.9% /
50.0% |
47.6% /
45.3% |
53.6% /
52.8% |
6.4 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
49.2% /
32.1% |
29.0 /
27.8 |
| 10 |
JAC |
24 – 20 W |
0.5 |
51.4% /
39.5% |
2.9% /
7.9% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
9.0 /
4.0 |
44.0% /
47.8% |
24.0% /
8.7% |
3.2 /
4.7 |
60 /
61 |
54.5% /
46.8% |
48.3% /
42.6% |
49.6% /
23.8% |
6.6 /
4.3 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
41.7% /
37.7% |
24.7 /
34.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@JAC |
20 – 27 L |
2.5 |
55.3% /
62.5% |
2.1% /
16.7% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
6.3 |
36.4% /
39.1% |
27.3% /
17.4% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
69 /
47 |
53.7% /
52.8% |
49.3% /
51.1% |
30.1% /
34.9% |
6.4 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
48.9% |
27.0 /
31.0 |
| 2 |
MIN |
28 – 11 W |
9.3 |
51.9% /
24.1% |
7.4% /
10.3% |
4.0% /
11.5% |
7.5 /
3.3 |
50.0% /
38.9% |
17.5% /
11.1% |
3.8 /
4.4 |
67 /
47 |
56.6% /
32.4% |
50.7% /
29.8% |
34.5% /
41.7% |
5.3 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
59.7% /
38.3% |
44.6 /
20.5 |
| 3 |
NYJ |
36 – 7 W |
12.6 |
64.0% /
41.9% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
9.4 /
4.9 |
25.8% /
41.4% |
12.9% /
17.2% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
56 /
60 |
46.5% /
46.8% |
42.9% /
41.7% |
45.6% /
26.9% |
6.3 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.4% /
48.3% |
33.6 /
18.4 |
| 4 |
@CHI |
19 – 11 W |
8.5 |
40.0% /
46.5% |
3.3% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.2 /
5.6 |
28.9% /
31.3% |
26.3% /
18.8% |
2.7 /
1.8 |
68 /
59 |
30.4% /
47.7% |
33.8% /
42.4% |
39.8% /
39.8% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.9% /
27.1% |
31.7 /
20.5 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
23 – 32 L |
-5.2 |
47.1% /
48.7% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
6.1% /
5.3% |
7.1 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
11.1% /
21.2% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
52 /
72 |
51.3% /
40.7% |
48.1% /
45.8% |
26.0% /
36.9% |
5.9 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
45.8% |
25.0 /
28.6 |
| 6 |
CIN |
31 – 27 W |
-6.2 |
53.3% /
43.9% |
2.2% /
4.9% |
2.3% /
2.6% |
8.2 /
7.3 |
40.0% /
43.8% |
20.0% /
28.1% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
60 /
73 |
47.9% /
41.5% |
50.0% /
43.8% |
50.7% /
39.4% |
7.2 /
5.5 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
43.8% |
29.0 /
23.7 |
| 8 |
@DET |
41 – 21 W |
6.0 |
58.3% /
40.4% |
5.6% /
10.6% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.9 /
6.3 |
48.7% /
30.8% |
17.9% /
46.2% |
3.1 /
2.2 |
75 /
60 |
55.2% /
36.4% |
53.3% /
38.3% |
43.2% /
50.9% |
4.9 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
52.0% /
21.7% |
29.4 /
27.8 |
| 9 |
BAL |
10 – 24 L |
-1.9 |
43.2% /
60.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.2 |
61.9% /
60.5% |
14.3% /
26.3% |
5.3 /
2.9 |
65 /
63 |
58.3% /
65.3% |
49.2% /
60.3% |
31.0% /
15.4% |
5.2 /
4.2 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
32.3% /
60.3% |
27.8 /
28.0 |
| 10 |
@TEN |
34 – 17 W |
0.8 |
55.0% /
46.4% |
2.5% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
4.9 |
65.5% /
53.1% |
24.1% /
31.3% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
69 /
60 |
65.4% /
55.1% |
59.4% /
50.0% |
39.3% /
35.7% |
6.2 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.0% /
53.3% |
29.9 /
22.3 |
Green Bay Packers
@ 
Indianapolis Colts