Green Bay Packers @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Nov 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 461
Odds: Indianapolis Colts -1.5, Total: 51.5

Game Analysis

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INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) vs Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers has at least 280 passing yards and three touchdowns in each of the past four weeks and he will likely have time in the pocket this Sunday to help him continue that streak. Guards Elgton Jenkins and Lucas Patrick have combined to allow only 17 pressures thus far and the pair will limit interior defender DeForest Buckner (11th in pass rushing efficiency). However, Indianapolis is the only pass defense in the NFL to contest at least 20% of opponents’ targets. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes is conceding a reception on only one out of every 15.4 cover snaps (7th) and he will battle with Davante Adams, one of only two players in the league averaging more than 3 yards per route run. Rodgers is targeting running backs on 28% of his passing attempts (4th) but the Colts are conceding only 5.3 yards per target to opposing running backs. Aaron Jones may be limited as a receiver out of the backfield and he also will likely struggle as a runner against the Indianapolis 3rd-rated rush defense.

Nyheim Hines played over half of the Colts’ offensive snaps last Thursday night for the first time since week 1 and had two touchdowns along with 115 scrimmage yards.┬áThere’s reason to believe Philip Rivers will feature the dual-threat RB again in this matchup as the Packers are surrendering 7.4 yards per target to opposing running backs. Jaire Alexander is conceding just 0.57 yards per cover snap (3rd) but he was held out of the previous game with a hand injury. According to our metrics, Green Bay’s defense is 1.2 points better than they were last week with Alexander back healthy.

Our model makes Indianapolis a 1.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 50.6 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Colts
GB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.1 33.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.2% 50.6%
  • Sack Rate 3.3% 6.4%
  • Int Rate 1.0% 1.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.9% 15.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 47.1% 33.2%
  • NYPP 7.7 7.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.4 24.3
  • RB YPR 4.3 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 21.5% 16.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.9% 52.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.6% 37.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.5




Game

  • All Snaps 63.6 58.1
  • Early Down Succ 53.6% 54.4%
  • Succ Rate 51.6% 51.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 45.2% 36.0%
  • Yards Per Play 6.2 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.2 27.8
  • Run Ratio 43.2% 42.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.8 27.3
  • Game Control 4.2 -4.2
 
  • Points 30.8 24.9
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