Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: This game was released to subscribers as a 1-Star Best Bet when the Packers were -3 at -115 odds early this week. I wouldn’t recommend GB as a Best Bet at -3 now with Aaron Jones and LT David Bakhtiari both out.

Lean – Green Bay (-3.5/-3) over HOUSTON

Aaron Rodgers faced the easiest slate of opposing coverage units of any QB in his first four games but last Sunday against the Buccaneers just 33% of his passes were deemed accurate, the worst rate of the week. The good news for Rodgers is he’s taking a step down in class going from our top-rated pass defense (Tampa Bay) to the pass defense ranked 25th by our numbers (Houston). Rodgers now has four PFF game grades under 50.0 since 2016, and he’s followed up those performances with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Packers lost Pro Bowl LT David Bakhtiari to a chest injury at the beginning of last week’s game and he is not available for this game. Bakhtiari is one of the league’s best tackles but his absence may not be a huge factor in this matchup. Houston’s edge rusher on that side, Whitney Mercilus, has just 15 pressures in 6 games and Rick Wagner is one of the most experienced backup tackles in the NFL and should more than hold his own.

Will Fuller is averaging 2.32 yards per route run (15th) but Deshaun Watson’s best receiver will be taken away by CB Jaire Alexander. Over the past two games, Alexander has shadowed Calvin Ridley and Mike Evans while holding them to just 5 targets and 0 combined receptions. I expect that same shadowing tactic to be used against Fuller this week.

Our model favors the Packers by 5.5 points with a predicted total of 54.6 points and I expect Rodgers to bounce-back in this game against a susceptible defense. The Packers also apply to a 62-21-4 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation this week.

Team Stats
Game Log

Packers
Texans

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.0 34.0
Succ Pass Plays 55.4% 51.7%
Sack Rate 2.1% 7.8%
Int Rate 0.0% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 22.1% 18.1%
Big Pass Yards 51.8% 40.6%
NYPP 8.0 7.4

Rush

Rush Plays 31.0 21.0
RB YPR 5.3 5.3
Stuff Rate 13.9% 12.8%
Succ Rush Plays 57.6% 61.5%
Big Rush Yards 50.8% 41.2%
Yards Per Rush 5.4 5.5

Game

All Snaps 67.0 55.0
Early Down Succ 59.4% 57.8%
Succ Rate 56.4% 55.7%
Big Yards Rate 52.5% 40.7%
Yards Per Play 6.8 6.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 32.2 26.0
Run Ratio 46.4% 38.5%
Starting Field Pos 31.8 23.9
Game Control 4.6 -4.6

Points 40.7 28.3

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.0 33.0
Succ Pass Plays 50.4% 54.4%
Sack Rate 12.2% 7.5%
Int Rate 3.2% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 23.3% 16.0%
Big Pass Yards 41.5% 22.0%
NYPP 6.8 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 18.0 36.3
RB YPR 3.3 5.5
Stuff Rate 17.8% 13.1%
Succ Rush Plays 38.1% 48.5%
Big Rush Yards 13.8% 55.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 5.2

Game

All Snaps 54.0 69.3
Early Down Succ 48.5% 53.4%
Succ Rate 46.7% 51.4%
Big Yards Rate 38.6% 37.9%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.2 31.0
Run Ratio 33.2% 52.6%
Starting Field Pos 24.2 30.7
Game Control -5.0 5.0

Points 19.0 31.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	43 – 34 W	6.6	56.8% / 59.3%	0.0% / 7.4%	0.0% / 4.0%	8.3 / 9.2	65.6% / 72.7%	6.3% / 9.1%	4.9 / 6.1	76 / 49	63.9% / 69.0%	60.5% / 65.3%	48.5% / 51.8%	6.9 / 7.8	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 44.9%	33.6 / 22.8
2	DET	42 – 21 W	5.7	54.8% / 45.9%	3.2% / 10.8%	0.0% / 3.0%	7.4 / 5.9	57.1% / 61.9%	8.6% / 14.3%	7.4 / 4.2	66 / 58	58.8% / 53.3%	56.1% / 51.7%	58.2% / 37.1%	7.4 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	53.0% / 36.2%	28.0 / 20.0
3	@NO	37 – 30 W	1.6	54.5% / 50.0%	3.0% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 7.2	50.0% / 50.0%	26.9% / 15.0%	3.8 / 6.1	59 / 58	55.6% / 51.1%	52.5% / 50.0%	50.9% / 33.2%	6.3 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.7%	44.1% / 34.5%	33.9 / 28.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@KC	20 – 34 L	-8.0	55.6% / 66.7%	11.1% / 3.0%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.2	59.1% / 47.1%	9.1% / 20.6%	5.4 / 4.9	58 / 67	59.6% / 56.6%	56.9% / 56.7%	33.3% / 19.0%	6.2 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	37.9% / 50.7%	22.3 / 37.2
2	BAL	16 – 33 L	-8.9	55.0% / 46.4%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	35.3% / 45.9%	17.6% / 5.4%	3.0 / 6.2	57 / 65	54.3% / 48.9%	49.1% / 46.2%	28.0% / 58.0%	5.3 / 6.3	1.8% / 0.0%	29.8% / 56.9%	23.8 / 27.8
3	@PIT	21 – 28 L	1.9	40.6% / 50.0%	15.6% / 5.3%	3.7% / 0.0%	7.2 / 5.7	20.0% / 52.6%	26.7% / 13.2%	1.9 / 4.4	47 / 76	31.4% / 54.7%	34.0% / 51.3%	54.6% / 36.7%	5.5 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.9% / 50.0%	26.6 / 27.2

Green Bay Packers @

Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 25

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis