Game Analysis
Lean – Green Bay (-1) over DETROIT
Green Bay’s offense has been pedestrian this season, ranking 19th with 5.5 yards per play and also 19th in our season-to-date predictive ratings. However, Aaron Rodgers’ knee looks to be improving as he scrambled 5 times for 31 yards last week and certainly looks more mobile in the pocket as well. I expect Rodgers to find success versus a mediocre Detroit pass defense coming off a game where they conceded 7.7 yards per pass play to the anemic Cowboys passing offense, and Rodgers should also get help from his running game. The Packers rush offense ranks 9th in our numbers and should find plenty of room against the Lions 28th-rated run defense.
Detroit rookie running back Kerryon Johnson’s 53% success rate ranks 6th in the NFL, but I expect him to regress slightly this week as the Lions could be without Pro Bowl guard T.J. Lang and will have a tough time dealing with Packers’ defensive tackle Kenny Clark, whose 13.3% run stop rate ranks 4th this season after finishing 18th in 2017. Matt Stafford is averaging 7.0 yards per pass play the last 3 weeks after throwing 4 interceptions in week 1 when the Jets admitted they knew his hand signals, and I expect him to carry most of the offensive load. However, Green Bay’s 7th-rated pass defense won’t make it easy on Stafford and our model favors the Packers by 3.2 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.3
37.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.8%
42.3%
-
Sack Rate
7.9%
7.9%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.9%
18.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.8%
50.1%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.8
24.5
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
22.7%
15.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.7%
45.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.5%
25.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
67.0
61.8
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
45.2%
-
Succ Rate
45.9%
42.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.1%
43.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
29.1
-
Run Ratio
33.6%
40.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
27.6
-
Game Control
-0.6
0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.0
28.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.9%
52.8%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
11.1%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.0%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.5%
35.4%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.8
31.8
-
RB YPR
4.3
5.3
-
Stuff Rate
19.2%
19.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.8%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.1%
52.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
5.1
Game
-
All Snaps
65.8
60.0
-
Early Down Succ
49.4%
55.9%
-
Succ Rate
47.3%
48.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.3%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
28.3
-
Run Ratio
33.4%
51.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.4
30.3
-
Game Control
-2.7
2.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
24 – 23 W |
-9.5 |
43.9% /
35.9% |
9.8% /
10.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
27.8% /
59.3% |
16.7% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.1 |
59 /
66 |
40.0% /
48.9% |
39.0% /
45.5% |
59.5% /
38.1% |
6.3 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
40.9% |
30.7 /
25.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
29 – 29 T |
6.3 |
48.9% /
56.0% |
8.9% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.6 /
8.2 |
54.2% /
44.4% |
25.0% /
5.6% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
69 /
68 |
55.4% /
53.7% |
50.7% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
44.4% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
26.5% |
29.9 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
17 – 31 L |
-12.0 |
34.7% /
50.0% |
8.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
4.9 /
11.0 |
64.7% /
32.4% |
11.8% /
10.8% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.5% |
42.4% /
38.6% |
35.9% /
60.1% |
5.2 /
6.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.8% /
64.9% |
26.4 /
30.8 |
| 4 |
BUF |
22 – 0 W |
12.8 |
47.6% /
27.5% |
4.8% /
17.5% |
2.5% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
2.2 |
56.3% /
43.8% |
37.5% /
25.0% |
4.4 /
3.6 |
74 /
56 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
51.4% /
32.1% |
49.6% /
31.0% |
5.7 /
2.6 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
43.2% /
28.6% |
27.4 /
27.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
17 – 48 L |
-11.9 |
44.2% /
65.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
9.6% /
4.8% |
5.8 /
7.8 |
37.5% /
32.6% |
25.0% /
9.3% |
2.5 /
4.0 |
68 /
66 |
51.0% /
53.8% |
42.6% /
43.9% |
37.9% /
55.1% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
23.5% /
65.2% |
23.0 /
40.7 |
| 2 |
@SF |
27 – 30 L |
-5.3 |
43.6% /
53.1% |
3.6% /
18.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
44.4% /
44.8% |
5.6% /
24.1% |
5.4 /
6.6 |
73 /
61 |
44.6% /
56.3% |
43.8% /
49.2% |
38.4% /
48.7% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.7% /
47.5% |
24.8 /
32.3 |
| 3 |
NE |
26 – 10 W |
8.1 |
61.1% /
42.9% |
2.8% /
7.1% |
2.9% /
3.8% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
45.5% /
57.9% |
21.2% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
69 /
47 |
54.5% /
56.8% |
53.6% /
48.9% |
36.7% /
19.1% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
40.4% |
30.2 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
24 – 26 L |
-1.7 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
40.0% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
22.2% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
53 /
66 |
47.6% /
56.9% |
49.1% /
53.0% |
64.1% /
51.6% |
7.2 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
54.5% |
23.8 /
21.8 |
Green Bay Packers
@ 
Detroit Lions