Green Bay Packers @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Dec 14
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Denver Broncos +2.5, Total: 42.5

Game Analysis

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Green Bay (-2.5/-2) vs DENVER

  • Jordan Love completed 8 of 11 passes for 126 yards against Chicago’s blitz last week, and he will get blitzed plenty more on Sunday. Denver’s defense has the 6th-highest blitz rate.
  • Packers’ WR Christian Watson is making up for the loss of TE Tucker Kraft. Watson leads the NFL with 6 receptions with at least 20 air yards since making his season debut in week 8.
  • Sean Payton’s system is built on quick-rhythm, high-percentage throws, and he loves “packaged” plays that have built-in blitz beaters, but Green Bay’s defense only has a 24% blitz rate (30th). Bo Nix will struggle this week as the Broncos rank 27th relatively against a standard pass rush compared to the blitz.
  • Our model favors the Packers by 1.1 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points.
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