Game Analysis

Green Bay (-1) vs DENVER

· Green Bay’s passing offense is averaging 0.02 EPA/dropback (14th) with just a 43.7% success rate. They’ve been boom or bust based on whether Jordan Love can execute for Matt LaFleur.

· According to our metrics, the Packers offense has the best play calling in the NFL, but Love has a league-low -6.9% completion percentage versus expectation.

· Regardless of Love, LaFleur will be enthused to have RB Aaron Jones back in the mix. Jones hasn’t played since September 28 and his hamstring feels the best it has since he originally pulled it in the first game of the season. Jones gained 5.3 yards per rush in 2022 compared to Dillon’s 4.1 yards per carry and Jones is once again gaining 1.2 more yards per rush than Dillon this year.

· Jones is also averaging 0.70 more yards per route run than Dillon since the start of last season and Jones should get some screens on Sunday as Denver’s defense is surrendering a 56% pass success rate to running backs (31st).

· The Broncos signed former 49ers right tackle Mike McGlinchey to a five-year, $87.5 million contract in free agency, but he ranks 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. Denver’s offensive line conceded just 6 pressures last week in Kansas City and 5 of them were charged to McGlinchey.

· Green Bay edge rusher Rashan Gary has 4.5 sacks (14th) and he has a favorable matchup this week across from McGlinchey.

· Russell Wilson is targeting running backs on a league-high 27.1% of his passes and I don’t see him changing it up this week. Packers LB De’Vondre Campbell will likely be out again, and backup linebacker Isaiah McDuffie is surrendering 8.9 yards per target.

· Our model makes Green Bay a 1.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.2. I used Denver in my spread pool based on a 72-34-1 ATS contrary indicator that the Broncos apply to.