Game Analysis

DALLAS (-7) vs Green Bay

Strong Opinion – R Doubs (GB) Under 30.5 Receiving Yards at 28.5 or more

· We’ve got two quarterbacks coming in on fire as Dak Prescott’s 72% success rate last game was the 3rd-highest of his career and Jordan Love’s 56% success rate in week 18 was the 2nd-highest of his career.

· Love is averaging 0.40 EPA/play since week 16 (2nd) but he went against zone-heavy defenses. Love’s yards per attempt against man is just 73% of his yards per attempt versus zone coverage (29th) and Dallas has a league-high 40.5% man-coverage rate.

· However, Love will likely get back his best man-beating wide receiver for this game. Christian Watson is averaging 1.44 more yards per route run versus man coverage than Packers’ backup WR Romeo Doubs this season.

· Love had four games versus defenses with man coverage rates above 30%. Love averaged 5.2 yppp against the Saints and Giants without Watson. Love averaged 6.8 yppp versus the Steelers and Chiefs with Watson on the field.

· Green Bay rookie WR Dontayvion Wicks is averaging 2.70 yards per route run in the second half of the season and his most common route is a slant at 17.9%. The Cowboys’ most frequent coverage is Cover 1 and it is most vulnerable to slants.

· Packers’ wide receiver Jayden Reed is gaining 2.22 yards per route run in the slot (5th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from Jourdan Lewis, who is surrendering 1.33 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 22nd out of 29 qualifying nickelbacks.

· I expect Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur to scheme up quick routes to Watson, Wicks, and Reed versus the Dallas man coverage and try to negate the pass rush.

· Cowboys edge defender Micah Parson led the NFL with 103 pressures, and he mostly attacks the right side of offensive lines where the Packers are strongest. RT Zach Tom ranks 11th in pass-blocking efficiency and RG Jon Runyan has conceded 21 pressures (8th-fewest).

· Green Bay LG Elgton Jenkins did not concede a sack this year and he will shut down interior defender Osa Odighizuwa, who ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Packers RB Aaron Jones has a league-leading 411 rushing yards since getting back on the field in week 15 but he will likely be contained bay a Dallas defensive front that is allowing -0.12 EPA/rush (10th).

· Green Bay’s defense has a 39.1% pressure rate (7th-highest) but the Cowboys’ offensive line ranks 4th in pass-blocking efficiency despite the starting 5 only getting 48.7% of the snaps together this season. Dallas should have starting right guard Zack Martin and starting left guard Tyler Smith suiting up after the pair missed last week against the Commanders.

· Prescott should have time to throw and his 23 touchdowns from vertical routes this year were the most since 2018. However, I expect Prescott to operate underneath more often with slot WR CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (4th). Lamb will line up across from Packers nickelback Keisean Nixon, who was an All-Pro kick returner in 2022 and has the speed to not get beat downfield.

· Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson is averaging 0.25 EPA/target (8th) and he has a favorable matchup as Green Bay’s defense is allowing a 59% success rate to tight ends (28th).

· Our model makes Dallas a 7.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.7 points (but the matchups favor a higher scoring game than the model predicts.