Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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CLEVELAND (+3.5) vs Green Bay

Brett Hundley has been helped by a Green Bay rushing attack ranked 3rd in my metrics. However, the Packers have only faced two top-10 rush defenses since Aaron Rodgers went down and the Pack averaging just 3.7 yards per play in those games. Cleveland’s rush defense ranks 4th and I expect them to succeed by putting Hundley in obvious passing situations.

However, Cleveland’s offense can’t be counted on win even if their defense plays as well as expected – even with Josh Gordon back in uniform for the Browns. Nearly half of DeShone Kizer’s air yards were targeted towards Josh Gordon in his return to the NFL last week in a tough matchup lining up across from Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward. Gordon will look to convert more of his opportunities this Sunday against a Packers pass defense ranked 29th in my metrics but Kizer and Gordon only connected on 4 of the 11 passes thrown to him (although for 85 yards). I like the match-up for the Cleveland’s defense here but our model favors Green Bay by 4 ½ points and I have no opinion on this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Packers
Browns

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.8 35.8
Succ Pass Plays 42.1% 49.1%
Sack Rate 9.5% 6.9%
Int Rate 2.6% 2.1%
Deep Pass Rate 14.7% 18.1%
Big Pass Yards 35.8% 39.3%
NYPP 5.3 6.7

Rush

Rush Plays 24.7 29.2
RB YPR 4.0 3.7
Stuff Rate 19.1% 27.1%
Succ Rush Plays 52.0% 42.4%
Big Rush Yards 27.8% 43.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 3.9

Game

All Snaps 61.4 64.9
Early Down Succ 48.5% 47.2%
Succ Rate 46.5% 46.1%
Big Yards Rate 38.5% 40.9%
Yards Per Play 5.0 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 29.6
Run Ratio 40.7% 44.6%
Starting Field Pos 25.8 29.8
Game Control -1.4 1.4

Points 21.5 23.4

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.1 34.3
Succ Pass Plays 34.7% 47.1%
Sack Rate 8.4% 6.2%
Int Rate 4.6% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 25.6% 12.0%
Big Pass Yards 48.2% 37.0%
NYPP 5.1 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 24.4 30.9
RB YPR 3.9 3.0
Stuff Rate 22.6% 30.0%
Succ Rush Plays 46.6% 33.5%
Big Rush Yards 41.7% 42.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.2

Game

All Snaps 64.5 65.2
Early Down Succ 40.9% 43.4%
Succ Rate 39.1% 41.0%
Big Yards Rate 47.8% 39.6%
Yards Per Play 4.7 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.4 29.8
Run Ratio 37.7% 47.2%
Starting Field Pos 27.3 29.6
Game Control -6.7 6.7

Points 14.7 25.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	17 – 9 W	2.5	50.0% / 40.0%	8.7% / 10.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.2 / 4.5	35.5% / 38.9%	19.4% / 50.0%	2.8 / 5.0	77 / 48	44.6% / 44.4%	44.2% / 39.6%	37.8% / 58.7%	4.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 2.1%	40.3% / 37.5%	25.9 / 27.5
2	@ATL	23 – 34 L	-12.4	50.9% / 51.6%	5.7% / 9.7%	2.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.2	56.3% / 55.6%	25.0% / 18.5%	3.8 / 5.2	69 / 58	53.8% / 55.3%	52.2% / 53.4%	24.2% / 50.0%	5.3 / 6.3	1.4% / 0.0%	23.2% / 46.6%	22.1 / 26.7
3	CIN	27 – 24 W	-6.6	43.8% / 53.3%	12.5% / 10.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.8 / 6.4	47.1% / 32.3%	29.4% / 29.0%	3.8 / 3.6	65 / 61	44.0% / 46.8%	44.6% / 42.6%	58.1% / 31.8%	5.3 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	26.2% / 50.8%	25.8 / 26.5
4	CHI	35 – 14 W	16.9	41.4% / 38.2%	6.9% / 2.9%	0.0% / 6.1%	5.8 / 6.0	48.0% / 40.0%	4.0% / 26.7%	3.7 / 3.4	54 / 64	43.2% / 36.0%	44.4% / 39.1%	50.6% / 25.6%	4.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 3.1%	46.3% / 46.9%	33.5 / 28.5
5	@DAL	35 – 31 W	-4.2	51.5% / 59.5%	12.1% / 2.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	5.5 / 6.6	64.0% / 60.0%	12.0% / 14.3%	6.4 / 4.7	58 / 72	58.0% / 57.9%	56.9% / 59.7%	43.3% / 28.7%	5.9 / 5.7	1.7% / 2.8%	43.1% / 48.6%	22.3 / 25.7
6	@MIN	10 – 23 L	-5.9	39.0% / 44.7%	9.8% / 0.0%	8.1% / 2.6%	3.8 / 6.3	20.8% / 35.3%	29.2% / 41.2%	3.0 / 3.3	65 / 72	33.3% / 43.9%	32.3% / 40.3%	11.5% / 46.0%	3.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.4%	36.9% / 47.2%	30.1 / 30.2
7	NO	17 – 26 L	2.5	23.1% / 59.0%	3.8% / 2.6%	4.0% / 5.3%	3.0 / 8.3	70.8% / 53.8%	16.7% / 12.8%	7.5 / 4.2	50 / 78	48.7% / 61.4%	46.0% / 56.4%	45.4% / 49.2%	5.2 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	48.0% / 50.0%	18.2 / 30.1
9	DET	17 – 30 L	-9.8	43.9% / 64.7%	7.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 10.4	70.6% / 24.2%	11.8% / 45.5%	4.6 / 1.9	58 / 67	59.6% / 40.7%	51.7% / 44.8%	25.4% / 43.2%	5.4 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.5%	29.3% / 49.3%	25.8 / 32.5
10	@CHI	23 – 16 W	5.0	50.0% / 37.5%	10.7% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 6.7	52.6% / 29.4%	15.8% / 35.3%	4.2 / 3.2	66 / 57	55.3% / 35.7%	51.5% / 35.1%	39.1% / 51.1%	5.2 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.8%	57.6% / 29.8%	30.8 / 26.5
11	BAL	0 – 23 L	-7.6	38.1% / 32.3%	14.3% / 9.7%	8.3% / 3.6%	4.5 / 5.2	44.0% / 44.4%	32.0% / 25.9%	3.0 / 2.2	67 / 58	44.0% / 43.9%	40.3% / 37.9%	26.4% / 34.1%	4.0 / 3.8	3.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 46.6%	20.1 / 46.6
12	@PIT	28 – 31 L	1.4	40.0% / 65.2%	13.3% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	7.6 / 7.4	54.2% / 45.8%	20.8% / 8.3%	3.3 / 5.0	54 / 70	45.0% / 57.1%	46.3% / 58.6%	60.3% / 38.1%	5.7 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.4%	44.4% / 34.3%	26.9 / 31.7
13	TB	26 – 20 W	1.6	33.3% / 43.6%	8.3% / 17.9%	4.5% / 0.0%	3.2 / 5.9	60.0% / 48.6%	13.3% / 17.1%	6.7 / 4.7	54 / 74	52.5% / 43.1%	48.1% / 45.9%	40.1% / 34.7%	5.1 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.4%	55.6% / 47.3%	28.5 / 25.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	18 – 21 L	-5.8	43.2% / 45.9%	18.9% / 2.7%	3.3% / 2.8%	4.9 / 6.9	36.0% / 16.0%	16.0% / 16.0%	2.3 / 1.5	62 / 62	41.7% / 41.0%	40.3% / 33.9%	45.1% / 35.2%	3.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 40.3%	28.6 / 20.8
2	@BAL	10 – 24 L	-9.4	31.1% / 50.0%	6.7% / 5.6%	9.5% / 2.9%	6.5 / 5.6	38.1% / 36.4%	23.8% / 27.3%	4.4 / 4.2	66 / 69	36.5% / 47.3%	33.3% / 43.5%	67.1% / 39.9%	5.8 / 4.9	1.5% / 1.4%	31.8% / 47.8%	22.3 / 33.9
3	@IND	28 – 31 L	-9.2	35.4% / 33.3%	2.1% / 11.1%	6.4% / 0.0%	4.9 / 9.0	57.1% / 27.0%	19.0% / 37.8%	5.3 / 2.5	69 / 64	42.9% / 24.4%	42.0% / 29.7%	53.8% / 63.7%	5.0 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.6%	30.4% / 57.8%	28.9 / 29.6
4	CIN	7 – 31 L	-16.5	29.5% / 60.6%	4.5% / 9.1%	2.4% / 0.0%	3.9 / 8.0	41.2% / 40.0%	35.3% / 26.7%	2.6 / 2.9	61 / 63	32.6% / 50.0%	32.8% / 50.8%	33.0% / 43.4%	3.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.6%	27.9% / 47.6%	26.4 / 28.3
5	NYJ	14 – 17 L	-1.7	45.9% / 51.5%	2.7% / 9.1%	5.6% / 3.3%	7.5 / 5.4	45.5% / 19.0%	18.2% / 33.3%	4.2 / 1.8	70 / 54	46.3% / 45.9%	45.7% / 38.9%	40.1% / 32.1%	6.0 / 4.0	1.4% / 0.0%	47.1% / 38.9%	30.1 / 29.0
6	@HOU	17 – 33 L	-16.2	31.7% / 50.0%	9.8% / 3.3%	8.1% / 3.4%	2.8 / 7.2	63.6% / 26.5%	13.6% / 26.5%	6.1 / 3.6	63 / 64	49.0% / 38.8%	42.9% / 37.5%	39.7% / 47.5%	3.9 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 53.1%	28.0 / 24.9
7	TEN	9 – 12 L	-2.1	39.0% / 41.7%	4.9% / 5.6%	7.7% / 0.0%	5.3 / 5.3	25.9% / 31.3%	22.2% / 46.9%	2.5 / 2.5	68 / 68	37.3% / 38.0%	33.8% / 36.8%	23.9% / 14.5%	4.2 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.5%	39.7% / 47.1%	25.1 / 33.6
8	MIN	16 – 33 L	-1.9	29.7% / 52.3%	8.1% / 2.3%	0.0% / 2.3%	4.4 / 6.5	54.5% / 41.2%	9.1% / 29.4%	5.2 / 2.6	59 / 78	42.2% / 50.0%	39.0% / 47.4%	41.3% / 28.8%	4.7 / 4.8	3.4% / 0.0%	37.3% / 43.6%	31.2 / 32.8
10	@DET	24 – 38 L	-0.7	29.5% / 36.7%	9.1% / 13.3%	2.5% / 3.8%	4.8 / 8.0	60.6% / 42.9%	30.3% / 28.6%	6.1 / 5.0	77 / 51	41.4% / 41.7%	42.9% / 39.2%	48.9% / 73.8%	5.4 / 6.8	1.3% / 0.0%	42.9% / 41.2%	28.4 / 28.8
11	JAC	7 – 19 L	-3.9	32.4% / 31.3%	13.5% / 6.3%	6.3% / 0.0%	3.6 / 4.5	36.8% / 31.1%	26.3% / 35.6%	2.7 / 3.1	56 / 77	40.0% / 32.1%	33.9% / 31.2%	42.2% / 24.2%	3.3 / 3.7	5.4% / 1.3%	33.9% / 58.4%	30.4 / 33.0
12	@CIN	16 – 30 L	-8.7	34.3% / 55.2%	11.4% / 3.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.2	54.8% / 50.0%	25.8% / 21.9%	5.5 / 4.8	66 / 61	43.8% / 58.3%	43.9% / 52.5%	70.1% / 36.1%	6.1 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	47.0% / 52.5%	23.7 / 33.4
13	@LAC	10 – 19 L	-4.7	34.3% / 56.8%	8.6% / 2.3%	3.1% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.6	45.5% / 40.7%	31.8% / 29.6%	4.0 / 3.6	57 / 71	37.8% / 52.9%	38.6% / 50.7%	68.0% / 35.7%	5.1 / 6.1	1.8% / 0.0%	38.6% / 38.0%	24.3 / 26.6

Green Bay Packers @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Dec 10

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis