Game Analysis
Green Bay (-3) vs CINCINNATI
The Bengals are getting healthier with safety Jessie Bates, safety Ricardo Allen, cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, wide receiver Tee Higgins, and guard Xavier Su’a-Fila all possibly returning this week.
Cincinnati’s offensive line ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency after finishing last season 27th and Joe Burrow should have plenty of time in the pocket with Green Bay Pro Bowl edge defender Za’Darius Smith out indefinitely after having back surgery.
Packers DB Chandon Sullivan is allowing 1.68 yards per cover snap in slot which ranks 23rd out of 24 qualifying nickelbacks and he will struggle to contain Tyler Boyd, who is averaging 2.35 yards per slot route run (6th).
Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson had 6 pressures last Thursday and will be a force again this week across from third-string LT Yosh Nijman. Aaron Rodgers will have to get the ball out quickly to Davante Adams, who is averaging 2.89 yards per route run (5th). Eli Apple is being targeted one in every 5.6 cover snaps which ranks 64th out of 79 qualifying CBs and I expect the Rodgers-Adams connection to take a bite out of Apple.
Green Bay’s ground game ranks 5th and Cincinnati have the 30th-rated rush defense.
Our model favors the Packers by 3.7 with a predicted total of 49.1.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.0
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.7%
51.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
4.1%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.8%
12.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.4%
30.1%
-
NYPP
7.0
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.0
23.8
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
17.1%
18.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.9%
56.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
16.1%
36.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
61.0
59.8
-
Early Down Succ
47.5%
55.3%
-
Succ Rate
45.9%
52.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.2%
31.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.4
29.2
-
Run Ratio
42.0%
39.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
0.2
-0.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.3
41.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.5%
42.8%
-
Sack Rate
7.6%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
3.9%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.6%
13.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.6%
31.5%
-
NYPP
8.6
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.5
25.3
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
21.8%
29.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.9%
37.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
29.0%
43.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
54.8
67.0
-
Early Down Succ
49.8%
43.6%
-
Succ Rate
46.1%
42.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.9%
34.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
32.9
29.5
-
Run Ratio
46.8%
39.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
0.3
-0.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NO |
3 – 38 L |
-15.3 |
35.1% /
61.9% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
7.2 |
20.0% /
53.8% |
13.3% /
23.1% |
2.9 /
4.4 |
52 /
60 |
35.1% /
56.3% |
30.8% /
56.7% |
25.8% /
36.0% |
4.7 /
5.4 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
65.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
DET |
35 – 17 W |
3.3 |
60.0% /
54.1% |
10.0% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
8.5 /
6.6 |
41.9% /
57.9% |
25.8% /
10.5% |
3.1 /
5.7 |
61 /
56 |
51.0% /
60.0% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
26.8% /
41.0% |
5.8 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
50.8% /
33.9% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
@SF |
30 – 28 W |
6.6 |
47.1% /
45.5% |
2.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
7.7 /
5.8 |
52.0% /
52.4% |
8.0% /
28.6% |
4.0 /
3.0 |
59 /
65 |
51.1% /
48.0% |
49.2% /
47.7% |
41.0% /
17.2% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
42.4% /
32.3% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
PIT |
27 – 17 W |
6.2 |
48.7% /
45.2% |
7.7% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
6.4 /
5.5 |
57.6% /
62.5% |
21.2% /
12.5% |
4.0 /
3.9 |
72 /
58 |
52.7% /
56.8% |
52.8% /
50.0% |
43.0% /
32.7% |
5.3 /
5.1 |
1.4% /
1.7% |
45.8% /
27.6% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
MIN |
27 – 24 W |
3.4 |
46.9% /
43.4% |
15.6% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
6.8 |
52.8% /
36.4% |
25.0% /
45.5% |
4.1 /
3.0 |
68 /
75 |
60.4% /
41.1% |
50.0% /
41.3% |
40.0% /
37.3% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
52.9% /
29.3% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
-6.6 |
41.2% /
25.9% |
11.8% /
11.1% |
10.0% /
4.2% |
6.1 /
4.3 |
40.0% /
41.2% |
15.0% /
32.4% |
3.5 /
3.6 |
54 /
61 |
42.1% /
34.9% |
40.7% /
34.4% |
26.8% /
28.0% |
5.1 /
3.9 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
55.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
@PIT |
24 – 10 W |
8.8 |
55.6% /
41.9% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
5.6% /
3.4% |
9.6 /
5.1 |
33.3% /
20.0% |
29.2% /
26.7% |
4.0 /
3.0 |
42 /
77 |
45.5% /
38.5% |
42.9% /
37.7% |
31.0% /
25.9% |
6.4 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
19.5% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
JAX |
24 – 21 W |
-4.4 |
54.5% /
60.0% |
3.0% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.5 /
8.2 |
45.5% /
53.3% |
18.2% /
13.3% |
3.5 /
4.6 |
55 /
55 |
51.1% /
60.0% |
50.9% /
56.4% |
49.8% /
47.8% |
7.7 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
54.5% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Green Bay Packers
@ 
Cincinnati Bengals