Game Analysis

Lean – CHICAGO (+1.5) over Green Bay

• Ben Johnson’s turnaround in Chicago starts up front where the offensive line ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency. Green Bay’s defense has a 39% pressure rate (9th) but the Packers have played two real games without Micah Parsons and surrendered 0.23 EPA/play in weeks 16 and 17 (30th) to the Bears and Ravens.
• Parsons had a 19.6% pressure rate and 3.5% sack rate while Green Bay’s backup edge rusher Kingsley Enagbare has a 10.6% pressure rate and 1.3% sack rate. Parsons is worth 2 points according to our numbers.
• Packers’ interior defender Devonte Wyatt is also sidelined. Wyatt had a 10.6% pressure rate compared to backup Colby Wooden with just a 4.0% pressure rate.
• Schematically, Green Bay’s defense can limit Chicago’s passing attack even with a diminished pass rush. The Packers rank 6th relatively versus play action compared to standard dropbacks, and the Bears have a 34% play action rate (2nd-highest).
• Chicago TE Colston Loveland led the NFL with 0.69 EPA/target but he will be contained as Green Bay’s defense is allowing only a 48% success rate to opposing tight ends (6th).
• The Bears will be getting back starting WR Rome Odunze, who averaged 1.9 targets per game with 20+ air yards (2nd). Backup WR Olamide Zaccheaus averaged only 0.42 yards per route run in the 5 weeks Odunze missed. Chicago’s offense is a half point better with Odunze stretching the field.
• The Packers offense changed in the middle of the season when TE Tucker Kraft tore his ACL. Green Bay averaged 0.12 EPA/play more and 0.7 yppl more with Kraft on the field this year.
• However, Jordan Love has a favorable matchup versus a Bears defense with the 3rd-highest Cover 2 rate. The Packers averaged 22% more yppp versus Cover 2 compared to other coverages (4th) and Love averaged 7.6 yppp in a game and a half versus Chicago’s defense.
• Bears safety CJ Gardner-Johnson suffered a concussion late last week. There is almost no chance he would suit up if this were another regular season game, but there is a chance they clear him because it’s the playoffs. However, Gardner-Johnson might not be as indispensable because starting nickelback Kyler Gordon could suit up for just his fourth game of the season. Chicago backup Nick McCloud is allowing 0.59 yards per cover snap in the slot more than Gardner-Johnson, if Gordon can’t get on the field.
• Green Bay RT Zach Tom ranked 9th in pass blocking efficiency when he went down with a knee injury in week 12 against the Broncos. Tom will be back on the field on Saturday night to shut down Bears edge rusher Montez Sweat, who has 53 pressures (20th).
• Packers’ rookie RG Anthony Belton ranks 56th in pass blocking efficiency out of 59 qualifying guards since he took over at the position in week 12, and he will struggle across from interior defender Gervon Dexter, who has 39 pressures (18th).
• Our model makes Chicago a 1.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.7 points.