Game Analysis
Lean – Green Bay (+3/+2.5) over CAROLINA
Aaron Rodgers is back and despite Brett Hundley playing the majority of 8 games this season, Green Bay’s offense is actually on par with Carolina’s offense in yards per play after compensating for the opposing defense strength. Needless to say, the Pack attack is now superior to that of the Panthers with Rodgers back at the helm. With Rodgers out, the Packers have relied on a ground game, which rated 2nd in my metrics in EPA per play since Rodgers has been out. Rodgers’ return is particularly timely because the Packers would have likely struggled to move the chains against Carolina’s 3rd-ranked rush defense. Rodgers gains nearly 2 yards per pass play more than Hundley and I expect Green Bay’s offense to be much more pass heavy on Sunday and certainly more capable of functioning at a decent level against a good Carolina defense than would have been the case if Hundley was still running the show.
Cam Newton had an excellent game last week against the Vikings and he should have good success again this week against a Packers defense allowing 6.8 yards per pass play (27th).
It’s difficult to handicap this match-up without knowing how comfortable Rodgers will be in his first game. It’s possible he’s fully healthy but it’s also possible they rushed him back now that the Packers are in a playoff run (although more likely the former). Although it’s late in the season, I still think the summer line of Packers -2 can provide some context considering this unique situation. In fact, if Rodgers plays at the level he played at this season before he was injured, which was below his normal standards, then our model would favor the Packers by ½ a point in this game. I’ll lean with Green Bay here and I’d consider the Packers a Strong Opinion if the line gets to +3 at -110 odds or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.5
35.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.3%
48.7%
-
Sack Rate
8.9%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.2%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.7%
38.4%
-
NYPP
5.3
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.9
29.1
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.1%
26.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.0%
42.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
29.5%
43.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
62.5
64.4
-
Early Down Succ
48.8%
46.6%
-
Succ Rate
46.9%
45.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.7%
40.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
29.5
-
Run Ratio
40.4%
44.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.0
29.2
-
Game Control
-1.6
1.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.8
36.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.4%
43.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.6%
9.9%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.7%
21.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.3%
40.2%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.0
22.8
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
24.7%
27.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.8%
40.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.4%
50.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
65.8
59.1
-
Early Down Succ
46.1%
46.5%
-
Succ Rate
43.9%
42.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.2%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
27.6
-
Run Ratio
48.8%
39.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
28.0
-
Game Control
1.7
-1.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
17 – 9 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
40.0% |
8.7% /
10.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
35.5% /
38.9% |
19.4% /
50.0% |
2.8 /
5.0 |
77 /
48 |
44.6% /
44.4% |
44.2% /
39.6% |
37.8% /
58.7% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
2.1% |
40.3% /
37.5% |
25.9 /
27.5 |
| 2 |
@ATL |
23 – 34 L |
-12.4 |
50.9% /
51.6% |
5.7% /
9.7% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
7.2 |
56.3% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
69 /
58 |
53.8% /
55.3% |
52.2% /
53.4% |
24.2% /
50.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
46.6% |
22.1 /
26.7 |
| 3 |
CIN |
27 – 24 W |
-6.6 |
43.8% /
53.3% |
12.5% /
10.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
6.4 |
47.1% /
32.3% |
29.4% /
29.0% |
3.8 /
3.6 |
65 /
61 |
44.0% /
46.8% |
44.6% /
42.6% |
58.1% /
31.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
26.2% /
50.8% |
25.8 /
26.5 |
| 4 |
CHI |
35 – 14 W |
16.9 |
41.4% /
38.2% |
6.9% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
5.8 /
6.0 |
48.0% /
40.0% |
4.0% /
26.7% |
3.7 /
3.4 |
54 /
64 |
43.2% /
36.0% |
44.4% /
39.1% |
50.6% /
25.6% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
46.3% /
46.9% |
33.5 /
28.5 |
| 5 |
@DAL |
35 – 31 W |
-4.2 |
51.5% /
59.5% |
12.1% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
5.5 /
6.6 |
64.0% /
60.0% |
12.0% /
14.3% |
6.4 /
4.7 |
58 /
72 |
58.0% /
57.9% |
56.9% /
59.7% |
43.3% /
28.7% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
1.7% /
2.8% |
43.1% /
48.6% |
22.3 /
25.7 |
| 6 |
@MIN |
10 – 23 L |
-5.9 |
39.0% /
44.7% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
8.1% /
2.6% |
3.8 /
6.3 |
20.8% /
35.3% |
29.2% /
41.2% |
3.0 /
3.3 |
65 /
72 |
33.3% /
43.9% |
32.3% /
40.3% |
11.5% /
46.0% |
3.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
36.9% /
47.2% |
30.1 /
30.2 |
| 7 |
NO |
17 – 26 L |
2.5 |
23.1% /
59.0% |
3.8% /
2.6% |
4.0% /
5.3% |
3.0 /
8.3 |
70.8% /
53.8% |
16.7% /
12.8% |
7.5 /
4.2 |
50 /
78 |
48.7% /
61.4% |
46.0% /
56.4% |
45.4% /
49.2% |
5.2 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.0% /
50.0% |
18.2 /
30.1 |
| 9 |
DET |
17 – 30 L |
-9.8 |
43.9% /
64.7% |
7.3% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
10.4 |
70.6% /
24.2% |
11.8% /
45.5% |
4.6 /
1.9 |
58 /
67 |
59.6% /
40.7% |
51.7% /
44.8% |
25.4% /
43.2% |
5.4 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
29.3% /
49.3% |
25.8 /
32.5 |
| 10 |
@CHI |
23 – 16 W |
5.0 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
10.7% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.7 |
52.6% /
29.4% |
15.8% /
35.3% |
4.2 /
3.2 |
66 /
57 |
55.3% /
35.7% |
51.5% /
35.1% |
39.1% /
51.1% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
57.6% /
29.8% |
30.8 /
26.5 |
| 11 |
BAL |
0 – 23 L |
-7.6 |
38.1% /
32.3% |
14.3% /
9.7% |
8.3% /
3.6% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
44.0% /
44.4% |
32.0% /
25.9% |
3.0 /
2.2 |
67 /
58 |
44.0% /
43.9% |
40.3% /
37.9% |
26.4% /
34.1% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
46.6% |
20.1 /
46.6 |
| 12 |
@PIT |
28 – 31 L |
1.4 |
40.0% /
65.2% |
13.3% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
7.6 /
7.4 |
54.2% /
45.8% |
20.8% /
8.3% |
3.3 /
5.0 |
54 /
70 |
45.0% /
57.1% |
46.3% /
58.6% |
60.3% /
38.1% |
5.7 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
44.4% /
34.3% |
26.9 /
31.7 |
| 13 |
TB |
26 – 20 W |
1.6 |
33.3% /
43.6% |
8.3% /
17.9% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
5.9 |
60.0% /
48.6% |
13.3% /
17.1% |
6.7 /
4.7 |
54 /
74 |
52.5% /
43.1% |
48.1% /
45.9% |
40.1% /
34.7% |
5.1 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
55.6% /
47.3% |
28.5 /
25.3 |
| 14 |
@CLE |
27 – 21 W |
-4.5 |
57.4% /
43.3% |
2.1% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
5.4 /
7.0 |
39.3% /
39.3% |
32.1% /
14.3% |
3.1 /
4.9 |
75 /
58 |
51.9% /
39.5% |
50.7% /
41.4% |
28.7% /
32.7% |
4.6 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
48.3% |
28.5 /
22.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@SF |
23 – 3 W |
12.4 |
45.8% /
46.2% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
4.2% /
2.9% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
39.0% /
26.7% |
14.6% /
26.7% |
2.9 /
3.4 |
65 /
54 |
42.6% /
48.7% |
41.5% /
40.7% |
29.7% /
33.6% |
4.5 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
1.9% |
63.1% /
27.8% |
33.7 /
30.1 |
| 2 |
BUF |
9 – 3 W |
4.0 |
50.0% /
35.7% |
15.8% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
34.5% /
21.7% |
37.9% /
39.1% |
2.7 /
3.0 |
67 /
51 |
44.9% /
30.6% |
43.3% /
29.4% |
39.1% /
20.5% |
3.8 /
3.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
45.1% |
31.3 /
21.1 |
| 3 |
NO |
13 – 34 L |
-8.6 |
43.2% /
46.7% |
10.8% /
3.3% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
7.1 |
77.3% /
55.6% |
4.5% /
25.9% |
6.0 /
5.5 |
59 /
57 |
57.8% /
51.1% |
55.9% /
50.9% |
40.3% /
55.5% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
47.4% |
25.2 /
37.8 |
| 4 |
@NE |
33 – 30 W |
1.9 |
61.3% /
60.4% |
6.5% /
6.3% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
6.1 |
51.7% /
73.7% |
20.7% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
60 /
67 |
54.9% /
66.7% |
56.7% /
64.2% |
48.0% /
22.0% |
7.4 /
5.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
48.3% /
28.4% |
26.7 /
26.1 |
| 5 |
@DET |
27 – 24 W |
6.3 |
50.0% /
51.2% |
8.3% /
14.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
4.7 |
17.6% /
40.0% |
32.4% /
40.0% |
0.9 /
3.3 |
70 /
56 |
37.0% /
52.4% |
34.3% /
48.2% |
53.7% /
53.7% |
5.2 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.6% /
26.8% |
31.7 /
29.8 |
| 6 |
PHI |
23 – 28 L |
-3.0 |
37.0% /
39.4% |
3.7% /
9.1% |
5.8% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.3 |
48.0% /
37.9% |
40.0% /
27.6% |
3.2 /
3.6 |
79 /
62 |
45.0% /
41.9% |
40.5% /
38.7% |
20.7% /
54.2% |
3.9 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
31.6% /
46.8% |
30.0 /
32.9 |
| 7 |
@CHI |
3 – 17 L |
-11.4 |
41.0% /
18.2% |
12.8% /
36.4% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.7 |
33.3% /
32.3% |
33.3% /
16.1% |
3.6 /
2.3 |
69 /
42 |
37.7% /
41.7% |
37.7% /
28.6% |
49.8% /
67.3% |
4.2 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
73.8% |
24.6 /
28.7 |
| 8 |
@TB |
17 – 3 W |
7.2 |
37.5% /
36.6% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
3.1% /
5.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
45.5% /
45.5% |
24.2% /
31.8% |
3.1 /
3.9 |
65 /
63 |
43.2% /
46.0% |
41.5% /
39.7% |
30.5% /
19.4% |
3.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
50.8% /
34.9% |
30.6 /
23.2 |
| 9 |
ATL |
20 – 17 W |
0.4 |
40.0% /
47.5% |
4.0% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.2 /
7.6 |
50.0% /
36.8% |
21.1% /
26.3% |
5.3 /
2.8 |
63 /
59 |
50.0% /
52.4% |
46.0% /
44.1% |
43.3% /
39.6% |
5.2 /
6.0 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
60.3% /
32.2% |
35.8 /
20.5 |
| 10 |
MIA |
45 – 21 W |
12.9 |
60.0% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
7.3 /
5.8 |
52.6% /
27.8% |
18.4% /
22.2% |
7.8 /
5.6 |
73 /
55 |
54.5% /
40.0% |
56.2% /
41.8% |
57.3% /
38.9% |
7.5 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.1% /
32.7% |
30.1 /
21.9 |
| 12 |
@NYJ |
35 – 27 W |
3.0 |
29.0% /
48.6% |
9.7% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
39.4% /
38.5% |
36.4% /
26.9% |
4.4 /
4.2 |
64 /
63 |
36.7% /
46.9% |
34.4% /
44.4% |
50.5% /
54.5% |
4.7 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
51.6% /
41.3% |
25.3 /
27.7 |
| 13 |
@NO |
21 – 31 L |
-8.7 |
40.0% /
41.7% |
6.7% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
7.0 |
52.2% /
31.3% |
17.4% /
28.1% |
4.9 /
4.7 |
53 /
68 |
51.2% /
39.1% |
45.3% /
36.8% |
38.4% /
57.6% |
5.3 /
5.9 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
43.4% /
47.1% |
27.8 /
32.1 |
| 14 |
MIN |
31 – 24 W |
5.9 |
29.6% /
44.0% |
7.4% /
12.0% |
4.0% /
4.5% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
41.5% /
52.4% |
19.5% /
23.8% |
5.3 /
4.8 |
68 /
71 |
43.5% /
47.3% |
36.8% /
46.5% |
47.4% /
36.2% |
5.1 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
60.3% /
29.6% |
33.2 /
31.7 |
Green Bay Packers
@ 
Carolina Panthers