Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – WASHINGTON (+8) over Detroit

• The Seahawks closed between 2.5 and 3-point favorites in Washington last week. The Commanders will be without Jayden Daniels this Sunday, but Marcus Mariota is one of the most capable backups in the NFL. Daniels is averaging 0.17 EPA/play since the start of last season, and Mariota is averaging 0.14 EPA/play.
• I do not think the gap between Seattle and Detroit, plus the gap between Daniels and Mariota, adds up to 5 points.
• The Seahawks are +1.6 net yppl and the Lions are +0.8 net yppl.
• Detroit certainly isn’t firing on all cylinders. The Lions’ 34.4% success rate last week ranked 75th out of 80 games with Dan Campbell.
• Minnesota forced 6 three-and-outs against Detroit’s offense.
• Lions LG Christian Mahogany ranks 9th-worst in pass blocking efficiency, but he will be sidelined for this game. Mahogany is allowing a 6.6% pressure rate, and you’d think it couldn’t get worse, but his backup Kayode Awosika is surrendering a career 9.3% pressure rate.
• I realize that Detroit is 12-0 ATS following their last 12 losses, but Washington applies to a 158-61-6 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on teams coming off a loss of 21 points or more, which is more significant than the Lions’ team trend.
• Our model makes Detroit a 4.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.3 points.

Washington is a Strong Opinion at +7.5 points or more.