Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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TAMPA BAY (pk) vs Detroit

Matthew Stafford has a bruised hand and it looks like he’s going to play through it but the effect it may have on his performance is difficult to quantify, which is why oddsmakers waited so long to post a number for this game. The Lions may also be without three starters on the offensive line providing nice matchup for Gerald McCoy, 3rd amongst defensive tackles with 39 pressures this season. Still, Stafford should at least find some success against a Buccaneers defense allowing 7.4 yards per pass play (31st).

Jameis Winston was sacked 7 times last week in Tampa Bay’s first game without offensive linemen Demar Dotson and Ali Marpet, both out for the season. One of Winston’s greatest strengths, the deep ball, will likely be dampened if the Buccaneers cannot patch up their offensive line. I have no opinion on this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Lions
Buccaneers

DET

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.0 36.4
Succ Pass Plays 44.5% 45.3%
Sack Rate 8.7% 5.1%
Int Rate 1.7% 2.5%
Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 21.6%
Big Pass Yards 45.2% 39.5%
NYPP 6.7 6.9

Rush

Rush Plays 23.9 28.5
RB YPR 3.3 3.9
Stuff Rate 32.3% 20.9%
Succ Rush Plays 35.3% 47.4%
Big Rush Yards 45.7% 35.2%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.0

Game

All Snaps 62.9 64.9
Early Down Succ 43.0% 48.6%
Succ Rate 40.9% 45.5%
Big Yards Rate 46.9% 42.0%
Yards Per Play 5.4 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.0 27.5
Run Ratio 38.2% 43.4%
Starting Field Pos 29.3 28.2
Game Control -2.6 2.6

Points 26.2 25.7

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.9 36.2
Succ Pass Plays 47.5% 50.1%
Sack Rate 5.6% 4.0%
Int Rate 1.9% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 21.3% 21.0%
Big Pass Yards 27.9% 38.0%
NYPP 6.5 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 24.8 28.7
RB YPR 3.4 3.8
Stuff Rate 23.3% 25.8%
Succ Rush Plays 39.8% 39.3%
Big Rush Yards 30.9% 45.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.1

Game

All Snaps 64.8 64.8
Early Down Succ 46.8% 47.1%
Succ Rate 44.7% 45.8%
Big Yards Rate 29.6% 42.5%
Yards Per Play 5.4 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.6 28.3
Run Ratio 37.9% 44.3%
Starting Field Pos 28.8 27.7
Game Control -3.2 3.2

Points 20.3 24.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARI	35 – 23 W	-2.7	47.6% / 42.9%	2.4% / 2.0%	2.4% / 6.3%	6.8 / 5.4	35.7% / 38.9%	21.4% / 16.7%	3.0 / 2.5	70 / 67	42.3% / 41.2%	42.9% / 41.8%	27.4% / 29.4%	5.3 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.5%	40.0% / 26.9%	36.6 / 28.5
2	@NYG	24 – 10 W	7.5	33.3% / 37.8%	12.5% / 13.5%	0.0% / 3.1%	5.0 / 5.6	43.8% / 38.9%	34.4% / 27.8%	4.3 / 3.4	56 / 55	37.5% / 41.5%	39.3% / 38.2%	42.4% / 30.0%	4.6 / 4.9	1.8% / 0.0%	57.1% / 32.7%	37.4 / 24.3
3	ATL	26 – 30 L	-6.3	40.4% / 48.6%	4.3% / 5.4%	0.0% / 8.6%	5.4 / 7.5	31.6% / 48.3%	26.3% / 13.8%	3.7 / 5.2	66 / 66	41.5% / 50.9%	37.9% / 48.5%	31.8% / 34.7%	4.9 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 43.9%	29.7 / 27.8
4	@MIN	14 – 7 W	2.8	40.5% / 40.6%	16.2% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.2	32.4% / 63.6%	29.4% / 9.1%	2.9 / 4.0	71 / 54	43.4% / 55.8%	36.6% / 50.0%	31.1% / 42.3%	3.6 / 5.3	0.0% / 5.6%	47.9% / 40.7%	30.0 / 25.2
5	CAR	24 – 27 L	-6.3	51.2% / 50.0%	14.6% / 8.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 9.3	40.0% / 17.6%	40.0% / 32.4%	3.3 / 0.9	56 / 70	52.4% / 37.0%	48.2% / 34.3%	53.7% / 53.7%	4.3 / 5.2	1.8% / 0.0%	26.8% / 48.6%	29.8 / 31.7
6	@NO	38 – 52 L	-15.8	35.1% / 45.2%	8.8% / 0.0%	5.8% / 6.5%	4.9 / 6.0	15.8% / 45.9%	36.8% / 13.5%	3.5 / 5.2	76 / 68	24.6% / 50.9%	30.3% / 45.6%	53.3% / 51.7%	4.6 / 5.6	2.6% / 1.5%	25.0% / 54.4%	27.6 / 29.4
8	PIT	15 – 20 L	-1.9	48.9% / 41.9%	4.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.7 / 10.2	50.0% / 41.9%	27.3% / 22.6%	3.2 / 2.5	69 / 62	58.2% / 41.9%	49.3% / 41.9%	58.1% / 53.2%	7.0 / 6.4	1.4% / 1.6%	31.9% / 50.0%	22.8 / 24.8
9	@GB	30 – 17 W	9.8	64.7% / 43.9%	2.9% / 7.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.4 / 5.7	24.2% / 70.6%	45.5% / 11.8%	1.9 / 4.6	67 / 58	40.7% / 59.6%	44.8% / 51.7%	43.2% / 25.4%	6.2 / 5.4	1.5% / 0.0%	49.3% / 29.3%	32.5 / 25.8
10	CLE	38 – 24 W	0.7	36.7% / 29.5%	13.3% / 9.1%	3.8% / 2.5%	8.0 / 4.8	42.9% / 60.6%	28.6% / 30.3%	5.0 / 6.1	51 / 77	41.7% / 41.4%	39.2% / 42.9%	73.8% / 48.9%	6.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.3%	41.2% / 42.9%	28.8 / 28.4
11	@CHI	27 – 24 W	-0.0	52.9% / 48.4%	8.8% / 3.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.7	40.0% / 60.0%	40.0% / 13.3%	2.6 / 7.4	59 / 61	53.2% / 56.9%	47.5% / 54.1%	39.4% / 45.5%	6.0 / 6.5	1.7% / 1.6%	42.4% / 49.2%	24.0 / 23.9
12	MIN	23 – 30 L	-9.0	34.2% / 59.4%	7.9% / 6.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.2 / 8.5	46.7% / 35.6%	20.0% / 31.1%	3.5 / 3.1	53 / 77	41.5% / 50.9%	37.7% / 45.5%	47.4% / 50.4%	5.5 / 5.3	1.9% / 0.0%	28.3% / 58.4%	29.2 / 32.1
13	@BAL	20 – 44 L	-9.9	48.6% / 55.6%	8.1% / 0.0%	5.9% / 0.0%	7.9 / 7.5	20.8% / 46.4%	37.5% / 28.6%	3.3 / 3.6	61 / 64	39.6% / 56.0%	37.7% / 51.6%	60.8% / 38.8%	6.1 / 5.8	1.6% / 0.0%	39.3% / 43.8%	23.2 / 36.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
2	CHI	29 – 7 W	18.1	48.5% / 56.5%	6.1% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	5.9 / 6.3	36.1% / 25.0%	11.1% / 43.8%	3.3 / 1.3	69 / 62	41.2% / 50.0%	42.0% / 48.4%	14.4% / 6.5%	4.5 / 5.0	1.4% / 3.2%	52.2% / 25.8%	31.1 / 27.0
3	@MIN	17 – 34 L	-13.1	57.1% / 63.6%	4.8% / 0.0%	7.5% / 0.0%	7.5 / 11.2	44.4% / 37.5%	11.1% / 12.5%	2.9 / 3.2	51 / 73	60.0% / 52.7%	54.9% / 49.3%	16.7% / 45.3%	6.7 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	17.6% / 54.8%	24.8 / 27.3
4	NYG	25 – 23 W	5.2	48.7% / 49.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 5.9	42.3% / 35.7%	19.2% / 28.6%	4.3 / 3.3	65 / 77	56.3% / 44.1%	46.2% / 44.2%	57.3% / 27.4%	6.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 36.4%	29.9 / 27.7
5	NE	14 – 19 L	-4.4	48.9% / 51.2%	4.3% / 7.0%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.8 / 6.7	55.0% / 47.8%	20.0% / 17.4%	4.5 / 4.9	67 / 66	55.6% / 53.7%	50.7% / 50.0%	37.2% / 24.6%	6.1 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.5%	29.9% / 34.8%	27.4 / 27.7
6	@ARI	33 – 38 L	-18.1	53.5% / 62.5%	2.3% / 8.3%	4.8% / 4.5%	8.0 / 11.3	23.8% / 38.5%	38.1% / 20.5%	3.2 / 4.2	64 / 63	40.4% / 56.5%	43.8% / 47.6%	51.9% / 53.0%	6.5 / 6.9	0.0% / 1.6%	32.8% / 61.9%	28.3 / 33.4
7	@BUF	27 – 30 L	-2.0	64.4% / 44.1%	2.2% / 2.9%	2.3% / 0.0%	8.4 / 7.7	32.0% / 42.4%	20.0% / 27.3%	2.8 / 5.2	70 / 67	52.5% / 37.3%	52.9% / 43.3%	26.4% / 65.0%	6.4 / 6.5	2.9% / 1.5%	35.7% / 49.3%	27.0 / 33.7
8	CAR	3 – 17 L	-7.2	36.6% / 37.5%	7.3% / 0.0%	5.3% / 3.1%	4.7 / 4.8	45.5% / 45.5%	31.8% / 24.2%	3.9 / 3.1	63 / 65	46.0% / 43.2%	39.7% / 41.5%	19.4% / 30.5%	4.4 / 3.9	1.6% / 0.0%	34.9% / 50.8%	23.2 / 30.6
9	@NO	10 – 30 L	-15.2	37.5% / 67.9%	12.5% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.5 / 9.1	44.0% / 41.7%	24.0% / 8.3%	3.5 / 4.3	57 / 64	43.2% / 57.8%	40.4% / 53.1%	13.0% / 49.3%	3.5 / 6.4	1.8% / 3.1%	43.9% / 56.3%	31.5 / 26.6
10	NYJ	15 – 10 W	3.4	40.0% / 28.9%	2.9% / 13.3%	2.9% / 2.6%	5.2 / 4.9	28.1% / 21.1%	28.1% / 42.1%	2.8 / 2.9	67 / 64	32.7% / 27.7%	34.3% / 26.6%	23.2% / 46.2%	4.1 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.6%	47.8% / 29.7%	36.0 / 19.0
11	@MIA	30 – 20 W	5.1	39.5% / 46.3%	2.6% / 2.4%	0.0% / 7.5%	7.1 / 8.9	20.8% / 15.8%	41.7% / 57.9%	2.2 / 4.4	62 / 60	34.7% / 34.8%	32.3% / 36.7%	42.4% / 61.2%	5.2 / 7.5	0.0% / 3.3%	38.7% / 31.7%	35.9 / 25.2
12	@ATL	20 – 34 L	-8.2	51.1% / 60.0%	2.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 10.5	56.5% / 60.7%	17.4% / 14.3%	4.1 / 5.3	68 / 63	56.4% / 55.1%	52.9% / 60.3%	18.8% / 61.4%	5.5 / 8.2	0.0% / 1.6%	33.8% / 44.4%	25.0 / 26.3
13	@GB	20 – 26 L	-1.6	43.6% / 33.3%	17.9% / 8.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.9 / 3.2	48.6% / 60.0%	17.1% / 13.3%	4.7 / 6.7	74 / 54	43.1% / 52.5%	45.9% / 48.1%	34.7% / 40.1%	5.3 / 5.1	1.4% / 0.0%	47.3% / 55.6%	25.3 / 28.5

Detroit Lions @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Dec 10

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis