Game Analysis

Note: The Best Bet total is now out of range but the Under would be a Strong Opinion if it goes back up to 47 points.

1-Star Best Bet – *PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) over Detroit

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (48.5 -115)

• Detroit’s offense had a 58.8% success rate in week 10 (2nd) with Dan Campbell taking over calling the plays, but Campbell’s feeling the need to make the change signals an underlying problem to me rather than a buy signal based on last week.
• The Commanders went into the Lions game without four starters on defense, and then interior defender Daron Payne got ejected while they lost another two cornerbacks in Trey Amos and Jonathan Jones. It was a convenient time for Campbell to take over, but I don’t believe he is on the level of former OC Ben Johnson, and I expect the Lions’ success rate to remain ~2% below last season.
• Campbell will be calling plays against the league’s top defense, according to our metrics, after the Eagles traded for cornerback Michael Carter and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, who had 8 pressures in his debut for Philadelphia.
• Jordan Love was pressured on 40.5% of his dropbacks against the Eagles, and the Packers’ offense averaged just 3.9 yppl last Monday night.
• Jared Goff’s top two targets are WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta, and both will struggle with their matchups on Sunday night. St. Brown is averaging 0.54 EPA/target (11th), and LaPorta is averaging 2.00 yards per route run (4th). Philadelphia nickelback Cooper DeJean is allowing just 0.66 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd), and the Eagles are conceding a league-low 38% success rate to opposing tight ends.
• Jalen Hurts is averaging 13% more yards per attempt versus man coverage compared to zone (2nd), and he has a favorable matchup as Detroit’s defense has a 38% man-coverage rate (3rd-highest).
• Eagles’ C Cam Jurgens ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency, but he could be sidelined again and is worth a half point by our metrics.
• Our model favors the Eagles by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 44.9 points.

Philadelphia is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2.5 or less and the Under (now out of range) is a 1-Star Best Bet at 47.5 or more (Strong Opinion at 47).