Game Analysis

Detroit (-3) vs MINNESOTA

· Nick Mullens averaged 7.8 yppp in his first start last Saturday but the Minnesota lost due to his two interceptions deep in Cincinnati territory.

· Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell called play-action on 43% of Mullens’ dropbacks and he will need to continue the play-action to slow Detroit’s pass rush.

· Lions edge defender Aidan Hutchinson ranks 10th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will exploit backup RT David Quessenberry if Vikings starter Brian O’Neill cannot suit up again this week.

· Detroit starting safety CJ Gardner-Johnson might be back on the field for his first game since September and he would limit tight end TJ Hockenson, who is averaging 1.84 yards per route run (5th).

· RB Ty Chandler sparked Minnesota’s ground game with 5.7 yards per carry last week, but don’t expect a repeat of that performance against a Lions’ defense that is allowing -0.16 EPA/rush (5th).

· Jared Goff should have time in the pocket to find his receivers against the Vikings blitz. Detroit RT Penei Sewell leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency, and he will shut down Danielle Hunter, whose 15.5 sacks rank 2nd in the league.

· Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 60% success rate (6th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside against nickelback Josh Metellus, who is surrendering a league-high 2.00 yards per cover snap in the slot.

· Minnesota’s rush defense ranks 5th according to our metrics and they will contain Detroit’s offense with a 42.2% rush success rate (7th).

· Our model favors the Lions by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.6 points, but the Lions, who were in a great situation last week, apply to a negative 49-122-3 ATS situation that is based on last week’s dominating home win. I used Minnesota in my spread pool. This game also applies to a reliable late-season division game under situation.