Detroit Lions @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Oct 1
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 257
Odds: Minnesota Vikings -2, Total: 42.5

Game Analysis

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MINNESOTA (-2) vs Detroit

It seemed like Detroit had beaten Atlanta before the Lions’ last-second touchdown was overturned. However, according to my numbers, the game shouldn’t have been nearly as close, as the Falcons outgained Detroit 6.6 yppl to 4.9 yppl. It was the 3 interceptions thrown by Matt Ryan, one returned for a Lions’ touchdown, that kept Detroit in the game.

The Lions are 7th in scoring this season but their offense ranks 26th in my ratings. Detroit has been lucky to have a return touchdown in all 3 games and the offense has benefited from short fields resulting from their 8 takeaways (2nd in NFL). In fact, the Lions offense only has 4 drives longer than 60 yards this season – only Dallas and Tampa Bay have fewer and the Buccaneers, obviously, have played one less game.

Case Keenum and the Vikings offense deservedly got all the headlines in last week’s victory against Tampa, but the defense might be an issue going forward. Minnesota’s defense has surrendered 5.7 yppl this season (26th in NFL) and have been fortunate to hold opponents to a 27% 3rd down conversion rate – a number that will surely regress towards the mean. The Vikings are particularly poor against the pass and face a Lions team with one of the highest expected pass/run ratios in the league (the Lions only trail New Orleans in pass/run ratio since the start of 2015). I have no opinion on this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Lions
  • Vikings
DET
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.7 41.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 40.5% 43.1%
  • Sack Rate 6.4% 7.0%
  • Int Rate 0.8% 6.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.2% 17.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 25.8% 27.6%
  • NYPP 5.7 6.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.3 21.7
  • RB YPR 3.2 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 27.4% 19.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 37.0% 42.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 44.9% 37.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 64.0 62.7
  • Early Down Succ 40.4% 44.5%
  • Succ Rate 40.0% 42.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 33.9% 31.4%
  • Yards Per Play 4.9 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 27.6
  • Run Ratio 42.0% 34.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 34.6 26.9
  • Game Control -0.5 0.5
 
  • Points 28.3 21.0
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