Game Analysis
MINNESOTA (-2) vs Detroit
It seemed like Detroit had beaten Atlanta before the Lions’ last-second touchdown was overturned. However, according to my numbers, the game shouldn’t have been nearly as close, as the Falcons outgained Detroit 6.6 yppl to 4.9 yppl. It was the 3 interceptions thrown by Matt Ryan, one returned for a Lions’ touchdown, that kept Detroit in the game.
The Lions are 7th in scoring this season but their offense ranks 26th in my ratings. Detroit has been lucky to have a return touchdown in all 3 games and the offense has benefited from short fields resulting from their 8 takeaways (2nd in NFL). In fact, the Lions offense only has 4 drives longer than 60 yards this season – only Dallas and Tampa Bay have fewer and the Buccaneers, obviously, have played one less game.
Case Keenum and the Vikings offense deservedly got all the headlines in last week’s victory against Tampa, but the defense might be an issue going forward. Minnesota’s defense has surrendered 5.7 yppl this season (26th in NFL) and have been fortunate to hold opponents to a 27% 3rd down conversion rate – a number that will surely regress towards the mean. The Vikings are particularly poor against the pass and face a Lions team with one of the highest expected pass/run ratios in the league (the Lions only trail New Orleans in pass/run ratio since the start of 2015). I have no opinion on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.7
41.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.5%
43.1%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
0.8%
6.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.2%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.8%
27.6%
-
NYPP
5.7
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.3
21.7
-
RB YPR
3.2
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
27.4%
19.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.0%
42.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.9%
37.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
64.0
62.7
-
Early Down Succ
40.4%
44.5%
-
Succ Rate
40.0%
42.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.9%
31.4%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
27.6
-
Run Ratio
42.0%
34.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
34.6
26.9
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.3
39.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.3%
52.7%
-
Sack Rate
2.7%
4.3%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
27.8%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
55.4%
33.0%
-
NYPP
8.4
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.0
21.3
-
RB YPR
3.8
2.9
-
Stuff Rate
23.6%
15.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.3%
38.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.9%
3.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
2.9
Game
-
All Snaps
66.3
60.3
-
Early Down Succ
46.8%
53.4%
-
Succ Rate
44.4%
48.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
52.8%
26.9%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
28.0
-
Run Ratio
46.0%
33.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.4
26.3
-
Game Control
3.5
-3.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
ARI |
35 – 23 W |
-2.7 |
47.6% / 42.9% |
2.4% / 2.0% |
2.4% / 6.3% |
6.8 / 5.4 |
35.7% / 38.9% |
21.4% / 16.7% |
3.0 / 2.5 |
70 / 67 |
42.3% / 41.2% |
42.9% / 41.8% |
27.4% / 29.4% |
5.3 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
40.0% / 26.9% |
36.6 / 28.5 |
2 |
@NYG |
24 – 10 W |
7.5 |
33.3% / 37.8% |
12.5% / 13.5% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
5.0 / 5.6 |
43.8% / 38.9% |
34.4% / 27.8% |
4.3 / 3.4 |
56 / 55 |
37.5% / 41.5% |
39.3% / 38.2% |
42.4% / 30.0% |
4.6 / 4.9 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
57.1% / 32.7% |
37.4 / 24.3 |
3 |
ATL |
26 – 30 L |
-6.3 |
40.4% / 48.6% |
4.3% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 8.6% |
5.4 / 7.5 |
31.6% / 48.3% |
26.3% / 13.8% |
3.7 / 5.2 |
66 / 66 |
41.5% / 50.9% |
37.9% / 48.5% |
31.8% / 34.7% |
4.9 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 43.9% |
29.7 / 27.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
NO |
29 – 19 W |
6.6 |
63.6% / 60.5% |
3.0% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.3 / 7.5 |
27.3% / 28.6% |
33.3% / 14.3% |
4.0 / 2.9 |
66 / 59 |
44.7% / 52.1% |
45.5% / 49.2% |
68.0% / 29.9% |
7.2 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 35.6% |
24.9 / 22.4 |
2 |
@PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-9.3 |
32.5% / 40.5% |
5.0% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.7 / 6.3 |
50.0% / 41.2% |
25.0% / 20.6% |
4.6 / 3.1 |
60 / 71 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
38.3% / 40.8% |
45.1% / 34.1% |
4.0 / 4.7 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 47.9% |
23.9 / 31.8 |
3 |
TB |
34 – 17 W |
13.1 |
63.6% / 57.1% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
11.2 / 7.5 |
37.5% / 44.4% |
12.5% / 11.1% |
3.2 / 2.9 |
73 / 51 |
52.7% / 60.0% |
49.3% / 54.9% |
45.3% / 16.7% |
6.8 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.8% / 17.6% |
27.3 / 24.8 |