Game Analysis

Note: The line on the Rams has moved up to -6, which makes them a 1-Star Best Bet.

2-Star Best Bet – **LA RAMS (-5 -115) over Detroit

• Detroit’s offense is averaging 0.09 EPA/play fewer than last year, after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and two starters on the interior offensive line.
• Jared Goff is particularly sensitive to pressure from the middle, and the Lions’ interior offensive line is at fault for 52% of the allowed pressures (25th). Rams’ interior defenders Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske are tied for 11th in pass rushing efficiency, and they will collapse the pocket on Goff.
• Detroit Pro Bowl S Brian Branch suffered an Achilles injury late in the last game, which has officially been confirmed as a season-ending injury. Additionally, Lions’ cornerback DJ Reed is not right coming back from the hamstring strain. Reed surrendered 5 receptions for 105 yards against Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb last week, the most yards Reed’s allowed to a receiver in a game in his career.
• Matthew Stafford will target Reed across from Los Angeles WR Puka Nacua, who is leading the NFL with a 69% success rate.
• Our model favors the Rams by 8.2 points, with a predicted total of 53.4 points, and Detroit applies to a 17-72-3 ATS late-season situation. The Lions are also not as good after a win (0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS recently) as they are after a loss (15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS the last few years).

The Rams are a 2-Star Best Bet at -5.5 or less and a 1-Star Best Bet up to -6.5 points.