Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Detroit Team Total Under (29.5)

Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (+7) over Detroit

• The Lions offense is due to regress after becoming the second team in the last 90 years to run at least 70 offensive plays and produce a first down on half of them last week.
• Detroit’s offense has scored a touchdown on a completely unsustainable 73% of their scoring plays (i.e. TDs and FGs) and I expect them to settle for more field goals going forward.
• The Lions’ yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is just 90% of the yards per attempt versus the blitz (28th) and Jared Goff will likely not be in top form against a Colts’ defense that has a 77% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest).
• Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 0.61 EPA/target (8th) but he will be limited on the inside by nickelback Kenny Moore, who is allowing only 1.03 yards per cover snap in the slot (9th).
• The Lions lost starting linebacker Alex Anzalone to a broken arm last game and LBs Derrick Barnes and Jalen Reeves-Maybin are also sidelined. Indianapolis called play-action on 53.1% of his dropbacks last week and Shane Steichen will likely do it again to keep Detroit’s backup linebackers on their toes.
• Anthony Richardson had a 36% pressure rate going into last week but a 44% pressure rate against the Jets with three backup rookie offensive linemen starting for the Colts.
• Indianapolis will be without the linemen this week against Lions interior defenders Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeill. Onwuzurike ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency and McNeill has 32 pressures (9th).
• Richardson will need to get the ball out fast to Colts WR Josh Downs, who is averaging 2.44 yards per route run in the slot (6th). Downs has a favorable matchup on the inside across from Detroit nickelback Amik Robertson, who is surrendering a league-high 1.68 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• Our model favors the Lions by 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 48.2 points, and the Lions apply to a negative 33-82-3 ATS situation that plays against road favorites after winning by a large margin at home the previous week.

Detroit’s Team Total Under (29.5) is a 1-Star Best Bet at 28.5 or more. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on Indianapolis at +7 or more.