Detroit Lions @

Green Bay Packers

Mon, Sep 20
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 297
Odds: Green Bay Packers -11, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Detroit (+11) over GREEN BAY

The Saints completely dominated Green Bay from the jump last week as the Packers only ran 18 plays on offense in the entire first half. Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career and was benched after averaging only 4.2 yppp with a 7.1% interception rate in week 1. Last season, Rodgers averaged 7.5 yppp (3rd) with a league-low 1.0% interception rate. Green Bay topped 30 points in every game versus¬†Matt Patricia’s defense when he was coaching the Lions, but I think there’s a solid chance they don’t reach that mark this time.

Detroit’s offense was not nearly as aggressive as their 71% pass rate (6th) would suggest because they were trailing by more than a touchdown for the entire second half. The Lions ended up pulling the game within one score late, but the 49ers were down two starting cornerbacks. In general, I believe this offense led by¬†Anthony Lynn wants to utilize a run-heavy approach and conservative passing attack. Only 35% of Jared Goff’s passing yards last week came from throws past the sticks. Overall, I’m down on this scheme but it could work this week against Green Bay’s mediocre rush defense.

Our model favors the Packers by only 8.0 points, with a predicted total of 48.4 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Lions
  • Packers
DET
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 60.0 27.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 41.7% 55.6%
  • Sack Rate 5.0% 3.7%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.0% 8.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.3% 59.2%
  • NYPP 5.6 11.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.0 27.0
  • RB YPR 4.9 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 20.8% 33.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.0% 37.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 61.2% 34.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.8 3.4




Game

  • All Snaps 84.0 54.0
  • Early Down Succ 50.0% 50.0%
  • Succ Rate 44.0% 46.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 49.3% 53.6%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 7.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 3.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 23.9 29.3
  • Run Ratio 28.6% 50.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -9.1 9.1
 
  • Points 33.0 41.0
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