Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under 43 – GREEN BAY (+2.5) vs Detroit

Brett Hundley did not play well in his first NFL start, gaining just 3.0 yards per pass play against New Orleans. My quarterback model projects Hundley to be about 10 points per game worse than Aaron Rodgers, which obviously drastically limits Green Bay’s play calling in the passing game. The Packers were able to find success on the ground (7.5 yards per rush) against the Saints 30th ranked rush defense but I don’t expect that to continue this week against a Lions defense holding opponents to 3.6 yards per rush (5th).

Detroit’s offense gained 7.0 yards per play last week but I think much of that was situation-based. The Lions had an extra week to prepare for a Steelers defense coming off two massive games against Kansas City and divisional rival Cincinnati. Detroit is still gaining less than 5 yppl on the season and I expect them to continue to play poorly on offense moving forward.

Green Bay’s defense has been unlucky to give up a touchdown on 74% of their opponents’ redzone trips thus far and I expect them to improve going forward given that no team since 2010 has surrendered a rate that high and the Packers’ defense is actually a bit better than average after adjusting for opposing offenses faced. I’ll pass on the side but our metrics like the Under.

Team Stats
Game Log

Lions
Packers

DET

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.1 36.1
Succ Pass Plays 42.5% 43.9%
Sack Rate 9.0% 5.1%
Int Rate 1.2% 3.9%
Deep Pass Rate 16.5% 22.6%
Big Pass Yards 37.8% 44.5%
NYPP 5.7 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 24.1 27.0
RB YPR 3.2 3.4
Stuff Rate 30.8% 19.4%
Succ Rush Plays 35.6% 42.2%
Big Rush Yards 48.7% 25.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 3.4

Game

All Snaps 66.3 63.1
Early Down Succ 42.8% 45.6%
Succ Rate 40.6% 42.9%
Big Yards Rate 42.6% 42.1%
Yards Per Play 4.9 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 27.9
Run Ratio 36.8% 42.5%
Starting Field Pos 30.6 27.4
Game Control -3.3 3.3

Points 25.1 24.1

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARI	35 – 23 W	-2.7	47.6% / 42.9%	2.4% / 2.0%	2.4% / 6.3%	6.8 / 5.4	35.7% / 38.9%	21.4% / 16.7%	3.0 / 2.5	70 / 67	42.3% / 41.2%	42.9% / 41.8%	27.4% / 29.4%	5.3 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.5%	40.0% / 26.9%	36.6 / 28.5
2	@NYG	24 – 10 W	7.5	33.3% / 37.8%	12.5% / 13.5%	0.0% / 3.1%	5.0 / 5.6	43.8% / 38.9%	34.4% / 27.8%	4.3 / 3.4	56 / 55	37.5% / 41.5%	39.3% / 38.2%	42.4% / 30.0%	4.6 / 4.9	1.8% / 0.0%	57.1% / 32.7%	37.4 / 24.3
3	ATL	26 – 30 L	-6.3	40.4% / 48.6%	4.3% / 5.4%	0.0% / 8.6%	5.4 / 7.5	31.6% / 48.3%	26.3% / 13.8%	3.7 / 5.2	66 / 66	41.5% / 50.9%	37.9% / 48.5%	31.8% / 34.7%	4.9 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 43.9%	29.7 / 27.8
4	@MIN	14 – 7 W	2.8	40.5% / 40.6%	16.2% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.2	32.4% / 63.6%	29.4% / 9.1%	2.9 / 4.0	71 / 54	43.4% / 55.8%	36.6% / 50.0%	31.1% / 42.3%	3.6 / 5.3	0.0% / 5.6%	47.9% / 40.7%	30.0 / 25.2
5	CAR	24 – 27 L	-6.3	51.2% / 50.0%	14.6% / 8.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 9.3	40.0% / 17.6%	40.0% / 32.4%	3.3 / 0.9	56 / 70	52.4% / 37.0%	48.2% / 34.3%	53.7% / 53.7%	4.3 / 5.2	1.8% / 0.0%	26.8% / 48.6%	29.8 / 31.7
6	@NO	38 – 52 L	-15.8	35.1% / 45.2%	8.8% / 0.0%	5.8% / 6.5%	4.9 / 6.0	15.8% / 45.9%	36.8% / 13.5%	3.5 / 5.2	76 / 68	24.6% / 50.9%	30.3% / 45.6%	53.3% / 51.7%	4.6 / 5.6	2.6% / 1.5%	25.0% / 54.4%	27.6 / 29.4
8	PIT	15 – 20 L	-1.9	48.9% / 41.9%	4.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.7 / 10.2	50.0% / 41.9%	27.3% / 22.6%	3.2 / 2.5	69 / 62	58.2% / 41.9%	49.3% / 41.9%	58.1% / 53.2%	7.0 / 6.4	1.4% / 1.6%	31.9% / 50.0%	22.8 / 24.8

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	17 – 9 W	2.5	50.0% / 40.0%	8.7% / 10.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.2 / 4.5	35.5% / 38.9%	19.4% / 50.0%	2.8 / 5.0	77 / 48	44.6% / 44.4%	44.2% / 39.6%	37.8% / 58.7%	4.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 2.1%	40.3% / 37.5%	25.9 / 27.5
2	@ATL	23 – 34 L	-12.4	50.9% / 51.6%	5.7% / 9.7%	2.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.2	56.3% / 55.6%	25.0% / 18.5%	3.8 / 5.2	69 / 58	53.8% / 55.3%	52.2% / 53.4%	24.2% / 50.0%	5.3 / 6.3	1.4% / 0.0%	23.2% / 46.6%	22.1 / 26.7
3	CIN	27 – 24 W	-6.6	43.8% / 53.3%	12.5% / 10.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.8 / 6.4	47.1% / 32.3%	29.4% / 29.0%	3.8 / 3.6	65 / 61	44.0% / 46.8%	44.6% / 42.6%	58.1% / 31.8%	5.3 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	26.2% / 50.8%	25.8 / 26.5
4	CHI	35 – 14 W	16.9	41.4% / 38.2%	6.9% / 2.9%	0.0% / 6.1%	5.8 / 6.0	48.0% / 40.0%	4.0% / 26.7%	3.7 / 3.4	54 / 64	43.2% / 36.0%	44.4% / 39.1%	50.6% / 25.6%	4.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 3.1%	46.3% / 46.9%	33.5 / 28.5
5	@DAL	35 – 31 W	-4.2	51.5% / 59.5%	12.1% / 2.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	5.5 / 6.6	64.0% / 60.0%	12.0% / 14.3%	6.4 / 4.7	58 / 72	58.0% / 57.9%	56.9% / 59.7%	43.3% / 28.7%	5.9 / 5.7	1.7% / 2.8%	43.1% / 48.6%	22.3 / 25.7
6	@MIN	10 – 23 L	-5.9	39.0% / 44.7%	9.8% / 0.0%	8.1% / 2.6%	3.8 / 6.3	20.8% / 35.3%	29.2% / 41.2%	3.0 / 3.3	65 / 72	33.3% / 43.9%	32.3% / 40.3%	11.5% / 46.0%	3.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.4%	36.9% / 47.2%	30.1 / 30.2
7	NO	17 – 26 L	2.5	23.1% / 59.0%	3.8% / 2.6%	4.0% / 5.3%	3.0 / 8.3	70.8% / 53.8%	16.7% / 12.8%	7.5 / 4.2	50 / 78	48.7% / 61.4%	46.0% / 56.4%	45.4% / 49.2%	5.2 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	48.0% / 50.0%	18.2 / 30.1

Detroit Lions @

Green Bay Packers

Mon, Nov 6

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis