Detroit Lions @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Sep 25

10:00 AM Pacific

Rotation: 473

Odds: Green Bay Packers -7, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Our model leans with the Over in this game but a 64-28 early season Under angle also applies. The model does lean with Detroit plus the points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Lions
Packers

DET

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.7 37.0
Succ Pass Plays 51.9% 48.1%
Sack Rate 6.1% 6.7%
Int Rate 1.6% 1.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.4% 24.8%
Big Pass Yards 45.4% 42.5%
NYPP 7.4 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 23.7 23.7
RB YPR 3.8 4.5
Stuff Rate 22.7% 15.1%
Succ Rush Plays 46.2% 51.7%
Big Rush Yards 36.9% 39.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.9

Game

All Snaps 66.3 60.7
Early Down Succ 49.4% 49.5%
Succ Rate 49.9% 47.8%
Big Yards Rate 46.1% 43.2%
Yards Per Play 6.2 6.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.5 28.3
Run Ratio 35.7% 40.0%
Starting Field Pos 24.0 24.5
Dominance Rating -0.5 0.5

Points 27.0 28.3

GB

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.7 40.3
Succ Pass Plays 44.4% 45.6%
Sack Rate 7.6% 8.5%
Int Rate 0.9% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 21.0% 22.3%
Big Pass Yards 38.6% 53.1%
NYPP 6.0 7.6

Rush

Rush Plays 25.3 25.0
RB YPR 3.4 1.6
Stuff Rate 18.6% 37.3%
Succ Rush Plays 38.3% 36.0%
Big Rush Yards 44.7% 12.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 1.7

Game

All Snaps 59.0 65.3
Early Down Succ 41.5% 43.5%
Succ Rate 41.3% 42.0%
Big Yards Rate 40.7% 47.9%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.2 29.7
Run Ratio 43.4% 38.4%
Starting Field Pos 25.9 28.5
Dominance Rating 5.5 -5.5

Points 25.0 22.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Dominance Rating	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@IND	39 – 35 W	6.8	62.5% / 46.9%	2.5% / 4.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 7.5	56.0% / 73.7%	16.0% / 10.5%	4.7 / 4.3	65 / 68	63.0% / 53.8%	60.0% / 54.4%	30.5% / 35.3%	6.9 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	38.5% / 27.9%	23.3 / 22.8
2	TEN	15 – 16 L	6.0	36.4% / 47.2%	9.1% / 8.3%	2.5% / 3.0%	5.4 / 6.2	43.5% / 48.0%	21.7% / 20.0%	6.0 / 5.6	67 / 61	37.3% / 50.0%	38.8% / 47.5%	57.6% / 49.7%	5.6 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	34.3% / 41.0%	26.3 / 17.2
3	@GB	27 – 34 L	-14.3	56.8% / 50.0%	6.8% / 7.7%	2.4% / 0.0%	8.4 / 7.7	39.1% / 33.3%	30.4% / 14.8%	2.2 / 4.7	67 / 53	48.1% / 44.7%	50.7% / 41.5%	50.2% / 44.6%	6.2 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	34.3% / 50.9%	22.3 / 33.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Dominance Rating	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@JAC	27 – 23 W	3.3	44.1% / 42.9%	2.9% / 7.1%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.9 / 7.1	42.3% / 40.7%	19.2% / 33.3%	3.7 / 1.8	60 / 69	41.9% / 45.8%	43.3% / 42.0%	37.6% / 49.0%	4.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 39.1%	23.5 / 30.6
2	@MIN	14 – 17 L	-1.0	39.0% / 37.1%	12.2% / 11.4%	2.8% / 0.0%	4.4 / 7.3	39.1% / 28.0%	21.7% / 48.0%	3.6 / 1.2	64 / 60	38.0% / 36.6%	39.1% / 33.3%	39.9% / 44.6%	4.1 / 4.8	3.1% / 1.7%	35.9% / 41.7%	20.8 / 32.5
3	DET	34 – 27 W	14.3	50.0% / 56.8%	7.7% / 6.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	7.7 / 8.4	33.3% / 39.1%	14.8% / 30.4%	4.7 / 2.2	53 / 67	44.7% / 48.1%	41.5% / 50.7%	44.6% / 50.2%	6.2 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.9% / 34.3%	33.5 / 22.3

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