Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – First Half Over (26.5 -115) – Dallas at DETROIT

Lean – DALLAS (+3)

• The Cowboys have crushed man-coverage since the start of last season when Mike McCarthy took over play calling from Kellen Moore. Dallas averaged a league-high 46% more yards per attempt versus man than zone coverage in 2023.
• The mastery has continued in 2024 with Dak Prescott’s yards per attempt 26% higher against man coverage than zone (3rd) and Detroit’s defense has the 5th-highest man coverage rate. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb leads the NFL with 234 yards versus man coverage. The Lions have no answer for Lamb, who had 13 receptions for 227 yards against Detroit last December.
• The Lions are allowing a 58% success rate to opposing tight ends (9th-worst) and they will struggle with TE Jake Ferguson, who is averaging 1.85 yards per route run (4th).
• Dallas’ game in Pittsburgh last week threw the market off the scent of this defense being without edge rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys had a respectable 37% pressure rate but the difference in offensive lines between the Steelers starting two backups and the Lions is vast.
• Parsons and Lawrence accounted for an incredible 43% of the Dallas pressures last season and first backup Marshawn Kneeland will need arthroscopic surgery for a meniscus tear after the game in Pittsburgh. The edge defenders’ cluster effects for the Cowboys defense is tough to put an exact number on but our metrics suggest it’s worth at least 4 points. Jared Goff will have loads of time in the pocket on Sunday.
• Detroit’s offense has a 50.8% rush success rate (2nd) and they will move the ball at will on the ground versus a Dallas defense surrendering a league-high 0.10 EPA/rush and missing starting linebacker Eric Kendricks.
• Games with totals in this range land on 27 after a half at nearly an 8% rate while 53 is not a key number in the NFL, which is why we have a play on the first-half over (although the game over qualifies).
• Our model favors the Lions by 1.9 points, with a predicted total of 55.9 points.

The 1^st-Half Over (26.5 -115) is a Strong Opinion at 26.5 -115 odds or better. If your 1^st-Half total is out of range, then you can play the game total Over (52.5) up to 53 points as an alternative.