Game Analysis

Lean – Over (53.5) – DALLAS (-5.5) vs Detroit

· The Cowboys’ defense has an interception in 60% of their games this season (8th) but Jared Goff has protected the ball with just a 2.4% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (4th) and he has a favorable matchup throwing between the numbers on Saturday night.

· Dallas is allowing 0.3 EPA/target more against tight ends than they are versus wide receivers and running backs. Detroit TE Sam LaPorta is averaging 1.69 yards per route run (6th). LaPorta is averaging 1.86 more yards per route run versus single-high safety coverage than two-high this year and the Cowboys have a 66% single-high rate (2nd-highest).

· Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 2.36 yards per route run in the slot (5th) and he will line up across from Jourdan Lewis, who is surrendering 1.42 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 25th out of 28 qualifying nickelbacks.

· Dallas has a league-high 45.1% pressure rate, but they will be limited as Detroit’s offensive line ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency in the 13 weeks C Frank Ragnow has started.

· Lions RT Penei Sewell leads the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will contain edge defender Micah Parsons, whose 77 pressures lead the league.

· Meanwhile, the Cowboys offensive line could struggle in protection with LT Tyron Smith possibly out again. Smith ranks 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Detroit edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson has 87 pressures (3rd) and he will wreak havoc across from RT Terence Steele, who has allowed 7 sacks (8th-most).

· Dak Prescott might be forced into his 3rd and 4th options against the Lions’ defense. Dallas TE Jake Ferguson is averaging 0.28 EPA/target (8th) but he will likely be neutralized by a Lions’ defense that is conceding just 0.08 EPA/target to tight ends (8th).

· Lions nickelback Brian Branch is allowing 1.02 yards per cover snap in the slot (9th) and he will battle on the inside with WR CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging 0.60 EPA/target (3rd).

· Our model favors the Cowboys by 5.2 points, with a predicted total of 55.1 points, but Dallas is 15-3 ATS after a loss, with one those coming by just ½ a point last week on the final play of the game, and they are 4-0 ATS after consecutive losses.