Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – CINCINNATI (+10 -115) over Detroit

Lean – Under (49.5)

• This is a huge number to be a home underdog in the NFL and double-digit home dogs are usually reserved for only the league’s worst teams. I’m not sure I’m ready to put the Bengals there yet. The betting market had Cincinnati rated 4 points worse than average heading into last week and this game would’ve been priced Lions -8 even if you dampen home field advantage here.
• Jake Browning has been terrible this season, averaging 5.1 yppp with a 6.0% interception rate, but his two starts have been on the road against two of the top 4 defenses in EPA/play allowed. We have a much larger sample of Browning being competent during 7 starts in 2023 when he averaged 6.6 ypp with a 2.9% interception rate.
• To get Detroit as a double-digit favorite you either need to believe the Bengals are suddenly equivalent to teams like the Panthers and Titans, or the Lions are a tier above the Bills as the best team in the NFL. Both of those seem implausible to me.
• The Lions are not a juggernaut in this spot historically (not as good ATS laying more than 7 points as they are at -7 to dog) and the defense is going to be without their top cornerback DJ Reed. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are going to line up across from backup CB Khalil Dorsey and CB Terrion Arnold, who is surrendering 11.1 yards per target this year.
• I expect Cincinnati’s defense to disrupt Jared Goff because Detroit left tackle Taylor Decker was downgraded to doubtful this morning and his backup will be lined up across from Bengals edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who has 19 pressures (11th).
• Our model favors the Lions by just 7.5 points, with a predicted total of 43.7 points, and Detroit applies to a 31-87-2 ATS road letdown situation that plays against teams coming off two high-scoring wins.
• Big road favorites off consecutive high-scoring wins, that won at home the previous week are even worse. Road favorites of more than 9 points coming off a home win in which they scored 31 points or more, while also scoring 31 points or more in a victory in the game before that, are just 1-27-1 ATS since 1995 (0-22 ATS since 2000).

Cincinnati is a 1-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more.