Game Analysis

Lean – Under (50.5) – CHICAGO (-3) vs Detroit

• Chicago can lock up the 2 seed with a win.
• Detroit is eliminated from the postseason.
• Most of the Lions starters are going to suit up, but they’re not taking any risks with banged-up All-Pro RT Penei Sewell. Dan Campbell said, “I don’t feel great about (him) right now…”   Sewell ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency and is worth 2 points.
• Detroit’s defense will also again be missing both starting safeties, and backup Thomas Harper should be out with a concussion. Lions’ interior defender Alim McNeill is also out. McNeill has an 11.0% pressure rate compared to backup Roy Lopez with a 6.1% pressure rate. Detroit’s defense will be about 2.5 points worse than its average lineup on Sunday.
• The Bears appear to be full throttle here, even though the Eagles are resting starters. Chicago would remain the 2 seed with a Philadelphia loss.
• Our model favors the Bears by 7.6 points, with a predicted total of 49.3 points, but Detroit applies to a lot of good situations this week, including a 96-26-2 ATS road dog bounce-back situation that is 7-0 in the final week of the season when applying to teams out of playoff contention. I used Detroit in my pool but would have used Chicago at -2.5 or less.