Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Detroit Team Total Under (27.5 -105)

Alternate play is 1-Star on Chicago at +6.5 or more

Lean – CHICAGO (+6.5/+7) over Detroit

Lean – Under (47.5)

• The game between these two teams closed Bears +10 (-120) on Thanksgiving and we had a Strong Opinion on Chicago.
• The Bears had a chance to send the game to overtime with a game-tying field goal, but appalling clock mismanagement ultimately got Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus fired.
• The flip in homefield within the division is worth 9 percentage points of win probability thus this price at Bears +6.5 implies these teams are rated the same as they were in week 13.
• I disagree with the teams being rated the same because Detroit has defensive players dropping like flies. The most impactful loss this past week is Lions interior defender Alim McNeill, who has 45 pressures (8th). Detroit’s defense has 14 players currently on injured reserve.
• The Lions have been leading the league in blitz rate since week 7 and I expect defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to dial it up even more man blitzes with another injury on the defensive line. Detroit’s defense has a league-high 35% Cover 1 rate and Caleb Williams has a yards-per-pass-play against Cover 1 a league-low 75% of yppp versus other coverages.
• The saving grace for Williams is the Bears should have the entire starting offensive line on the field on Sunday. Backup LT Kiran Amegadjie surrendered an 11% pressure rate last week, so having starting left tackle Braxton Jones back on the field to contain Lions edge defender Za’Darius Smith is vital.
• Chicago slot WR Keenan Allen leads the team with a 29% target share since interim head coach Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from nickelback Amik Robertson, who is surrendering 1.44 yards per route run in the slot (2nd-worst).
• Of the 14 players on injured reserve for Detroit’s defense, ten of them are in the Front 7 and the Lions were gashed on the ground last week – allowing 197 rushing yards on 34 carries to the Bills. I expect the Bears ground game to have running lanes.
• Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense had only a 31% rush success rate last week in a game in which they lost RB David Montgomery and this is not a game to get back on track as Chicago has the 6th-rated rush defense according to our metrics.
• Lions’ remaining RB Jahmyr Gibbs will not have his usual impact as a receiver. Gibbs is averaging 1.52 yards per route run (4th) but the Bears defense is allowing just -0.16 EPA/target (3rd).
• We’ve seen Jared Goff and Detroit’s offense struggle outdoors in the past. Goff has a career completion percentage of just 62.6% playing outdoors, compared to 68.2% playing indoors (and 65.3% in all games).
• Goff’s numbers have been enhanced this season by playing a remarkable 13 of their 14 games in the perfect conditions of a domed stadium. The one game that Detroit played outdoors was a win at Green Bay but the offense scored just 17 points (they added a defensive TD) and had just 261 total yards
• In four career games in Chicago, Goff is averaging only 16.0 points. The Bears are 24-13-1 ATS at home from week 10 onward versus dome or warm weather teams since 2005. Temperatures will be below freezing today in Chicago.
• Also, Detroit is going on the road to play in the cold and wind after playing 3 straight home games (and 6 consecutive dome games) and NFL road favorites of more than 3 points are just 20-47-1 ATS after a 3-game homestand.
• We make the fair line on this game 4.5 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points, and Chicago applies to a late-season 46-5-3 ATS home underdog situation that plays on teams out of the playoff picture in the final 3 weeks of the season. This game also applies to an 849-643-19 Division Under angle that is 11-5-1 Under so far this season.
• The model and situation like Chicago plus points and the Under and the best way to play this game is to take the struggling Bears’ offense out of the bet by playing the Lions’ Team Total Under.

The Detroit Team Total Under (27.5) is a 1-Star Best Bet at 27 points or more. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on Chicago +6.5 or more.