Game Analysis

Detroit (-3/-3.5) vs CHICAGO

· This game will be noticeably different than three weeks ago when Chicago went into Detroit as a 9-point underdog and a total of 48 in perfect dome conditions on artificial turf. This game will be played on grass at Soldier Field in cold weather.

· The Bears are 21-13 and 20-13-1 ATS at home after week 10 versus dome and warm weather teams.

· Wide receiver DJ Moore had seven catches for 96 yards and Justin Fields had 18 carries for 104 yards in Chicago’s narrow loss to the Lions in week 11.

· I think Fields is more likely to replicate that performance in these conditions, but Detroit’s defense is allowing -0.14 EPA/rush (8th) and they could contain the Bears ground game, which has a 43.4% rush success rate (6th).

· The Lions are conceding just 0.04 EPA/target to tight ends (5th) and they will limit TE Cole Kmet, who has a 63% success rate (5th).

· The New Orleans running backs combined for 64 receiving yards against the Lions last week as Detroit’s defense is without starting linebacker Alex Anzalone. Chicago’s offense is targeting running backs on 23.6% of passes (4th-most) but Anzalone will suit up this week to contain the screens from Fields.

· Bears RT Darnell Wright has surrendered 38 pressures (7th-most) and the rookie will struggle across from edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, who ranks 11th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Detroit TE Sam LaPorta averaged 7.00 yards per route run last week but he will be limited by Chicago’s defense allowing 0.09 EPA/target to tight ends (10th).

· Lions center Frank Ragnow ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency but he is likely out. However, Jared Goff should have clean pockets regardless in this game due to the matchup.

· Bears edge rusher Montez Sweat has 9.0 sacks (13th) but he will be shut down by RT Penei Sewell, who ranks 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Detroit’s offense is 3rd in EPA/rush but they will be contained on the ground as Chicago’s defense is allowing just a 33.7% rush success rate (2nd).

· Our model favors the Lions by 5.8 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points, but the matchups and conditions favor the Bears and a good late season division under angle applies. I used Chicago +3.5 in my pool and it’s a toss-up if your line is 3 points.