Game Analysis

Detroit (-3.5) at CAROLINA

The Panthers look like an improved team offensively this season but Bryce Young is not going to continue to average 13.0 yards per completion and the offense has a lower success rate this season (42.1%, #20 in the league) than they did last season (43.1%), which is a better indicator of future success than their good EPA per play average, which has been enhanced by an unsustainable number of big pass plays.

Young has averaged 10.4 yards per completion since the start of the 2024 season and if he is at the league average of 11.0 ypc then the Panthers’ offense would be 4.4 points per game worse than it’s been. The Carolina offense is better than I thought they’d be but I still rate that attack at 1.3 points worse than average. However, they’re likely to be worse in this game with another key offensive lineman out.

The Panthers will be without offensive guard Damien Lewis, who is their best lineman. Two other starters have also been out (LT Ekwonu and RT Moton) and the Panthers have been the league’s worst team in pass protection with pressures allowed on 53% of dropbacks. That’s likely to get worse and the ground attack will also suffer a bit without Lewis.

Last week the Panthers had a -0.55 EPA per play on 17 plays with Lewis not on the field (-0.03 EPA/play on 57 plays with him) and in this 2-plus seasons with Carolina the Panthers have had a -0.13 EPA per play on 183 plays without Lewis (about 3 games worth), compared to just -0.04 EPA per play with him on the field. That’s a significant difference and last week Bryce Young was pressured on 10 of 13 dropbacks when Lewis was not in the game. Young has been 0.60 EPA per dropback better when not pressured than when pressured this season

Carolina may also be without top WR Jalen Coker and both starting cornerbacks are out, which is a huge problem.

The Lions have been about what was expected, as they’ve been good offensively while being bad on defense with both starting safeties on IR to start the season.

Carolina is in a good spot, as the Panthers have covered the spread 14 games in a row as an underdog following a loss while Detroit applies to a negative 58-140-5 ATS situation. However, my injury adjusted ratings favor Detroit by 5.1 points (52.1 total points) and closer to 6 points if Coker doesn’t play. I still used Carolina in my spread pool based on the situation and their history of playing well off a loss.