Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – DETROIT (+3 or more) vs Baltimore

Lean – Over (43)

Baltimore’s defense is ranked 5th in yards per pass play allowed but they have been quite fortunate to line up against DeShone Kizer, Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Mitchell Trubisky, Matt Moore, Brett Hundley, and Tom Savage, not exactly a murderer’s row. In fact, the only quarterbacks the Ravens have faced averaging more than 6.5 yards per pass play are Ben Roethlisberger, Case Keenum, and Marcus Mariota – all in losing efforts. Matthew Stafford will be the 4th quarterback averaging 6.5 yards per pass play to see this overrated Ravens secondary and I expect him to play well if he is healthy (tweaked ankle on Thanksgiving but listed as probable for this game).

Baltimore’s offense has failed to reach 5 yards per play in every game since week 5 but those bad offensive numbers actually trigger a 44-9-1 Over situation, as does their short week to prepare for the Lions’ offense after playing on Monday night (a 69-30-4 Over angle based on short rest applies). I’ll lean over the total and I’d lean with Detroit at +3 or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Lions
Ravens

DET

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.2 36.5
Succ Pass Plays 44.2% 44.4%
Sack Rate 8.7% 5.6%
Int Rate 1.4% 2.7%
Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 21.7%
Big Pass Yards 43.3% 39.3%
NYPP 6.6 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 23.9 28.5
RB YPR 3.2 4.0
Stuff Rate 31.8% 20.2%
Succ Rush Plays 36.6% 47.5%
Big Rush Yards 46.0% 35.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.1

Game

All Snaps 63.1 65.0
Early Down Succ 43.4% 48.0%
Succ Rate 41.2% 44.9%
Big Yards Rate 45.6% 42.3%
Yards Per Play 5.3 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 27.5
Run Ratio 38.1% 43.4%
Starting Field Pos 29.9 27.4
Game Control -1.9 1.9

Points 26.7 24.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARI	35 – 23 W	-2.7	47.6% / 42.9%	2.4% / 2.0%	2.4% / 6.3%	6.8 / 5.4	35.7% / 38.9%	21.4% / 16.7%	3.0 / 2.5	70 / 67	42.3% / 41.2%	42.9% / 41.8%	27.4% / 29.4%	5.3 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.5%	40.0% / 26.9%	36.6 / 28.5
2	@NYG	24 – 10 W	7.5	33.3% / 37.8%	12.5% / 13.5%	0.0% / 3.1%	5.0 / 5.6	43.8% / 38.9%	34.4% / 27.8%	4.3 / 3.4	56 / 55	37.5% / 41.5%	39.3% / 38.2%	42.4% / 30.0%	4.6 / 4.9	1.8% / 0.0%	57.1% / 32.7%	37.4 / 24.3
3	ATL	26 – 30 L	-6.3	40.4% / 48.6%	4.3% / 5.4%	0.0% / 8.6%	5.4 / 7.5	31.6% / 48.3%	26.3% / 13.8%	3.7 / 5.2	66 / 66	41.5% / 50.9%	37.9% / 48.5%	31.8% / 34.7%	4.9 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 43.9%	29.7 / 27.8
4	@MIN	14 – 7 W	2.8	40.5% / 40.6%	16.2% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.2	32.4% / 63.6%	29.4% / 9.1%	2.9 / 4.0	71 / 54	43.4% / 55.8%	36.6% / 50.0%	31.1% / 42.3%	3.6 / 5.3	0.0% / 5.6%	47.9% / 40.7%	30.0 / 25.2
5	CAR	24 – 27 L	-6.3	51.2% / 50.0%	14.6% / 8.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 9.3	40.0% / 17.6%	40.0% / 32.4%	3.3 / 0.9	56 / 70	52.4% / 37.0%	48.2% / 34.3%	53.7% / 53.7%	4.3 / 5.2	1.8% / 0.0%	26.8% / 48.6%	29.8 / 31.7
6	@NO	38 – 52 L	-15.8	35.1% / 45.2%	8.8% / 0.0%	5.8% / 6.5%	4.9 / 6.0	15.8% / 45.9%	36.8% / 13.5%	3.5 / 5.2	76 / 68	24.6% / 50.9%	30.3% / 45.6%	53.3% / 51.7%	4.6 / 5.6	2.6% / 1.5%	25.0% / 54.4%	27.6 / 29.4
8	PIT	15 – 20 L	-1.9	48.9% / 41.9%	4.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.7 / 10.2	50.0% / 41.9%	27.3% / 22.6%	3.2 / 2.5	69 / 62	58.2% / 41.9%	49.3% / 41.9%	58.1% / 53.2%	7.0 / 6.4	1.4% / 1.6%	31.9% / 50.0%	22.8 / 24.8
9	@GB	30 – 17 W	9.8	64.7% / 43.9%	2.9% / 7.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.4 / 5.7	24.2% / 70.6%	45.5% / 11.8%	1.9 / 4.6	67 / 58	40.7% / 59.6%	44.8% / 51.7%	43.2% / 25.4%	6.2 / 5.4	1.5% / 0.0%	49.3% / 29.3%	32.5 / 25.8
10	CLE	38 – 24 W	0.7	36.7% / 29.5%	13.3% / 9.1%	3.8% / 2.5%	8.0 / 4.8	42.9% / 60.6%	28.6% / 30.3%	5.0 / 6.1	51 / 77	41.7% / 41.4%	39.2% / 42.9%	73.8% / 48.9%	6.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.3%	41.2% / 42.9%	28.8 / 28.4
11	@CHI	27 – 24 W	-0.0	52.9% / 48.4%	8.8% / 3.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.7	40.0% / 60.0%	40.0% / 13.3%	2.6 / 7.4	59 / 61	53.2% / 56.9%	47.5% / 54.1%	39.4% / 45.5%	6.0 / 6.5	1.7% / 1.6%	42.4% / 49.2%	24.0 / 23.9
12	MIN	23 – 30 L	-9.0	34.2% / 59.4%	7.9% / 6.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.2 / 8.5	46.7% / 35.6%	20.0% / 31.1%	3.5 / 3.1	53 / 77	41.5% / 50.9%	37.7% / 45.5%	47.4% / 50.4%	5.5 / 5.3	1.9% / 0.0%	28.3% / 58.4%	29.2 / 32.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CIN	20 – 0 W	11.0	27.8% / 30.6%	5.6% / 13.9%	5.9% / 12.9%	6.2 / 4.0	45.2% / 36.4%	19.0% / 22.7%	3.7 / 3.5	60 / 58	39.1% / 34.1%	40.0% / 32.8%	32.1% / 45.7%	4.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.7%	70.0% / 37.9%	32.2 / 30.8
2	CLE	24 – 10 W	9.4	50.0% / 31.1%	5.6% / 6.7%	2.9% / 9.5%	5.6 / 6.5	36.4% / 38.1%	27.3% / 23.8%	4.2 / 4.4	69 / 66	47.3% / 36.5%	43.5% / 33.3%	39.9% / 67.1%	4.9 / 5.8	1.4% / 1.5%	47.8% / 31.8%	33.9 / 22.3
3	@JAC	7 – 44 L	-23.9	24.1% / 54.5%	6.9% / 0.0%	7.4% / 0.0%	1.8 / 7.4	56.0% / 31.6%	20.0% / 10.5%	5.4 / 4.4	54 / 71	42.9% / 48.1%	38.9% / 42.3%	39.2% / 35.8%	3.4 / 5.8	1.9% / 0.0%	46.3% / 53.5%	24.1 / 38.5
4	PIT	9 – 26 L	-8.6	52.9% / 41.9%	7.8% / 3.2%	4.3% / 3.3%	4.0 / 6.7	46.7% / 46.5%	46.7% / 23.3%	5.5 / 4.0	66 / 74	56.9% / 45.6%	51.5% / 44.6%	25.3% / 26.4%	4.4 / 5.2	1.5% / 0.0%	22.7% / 58.1%	28.5 / 31.1
5	@OAK	30 – 17 W	11.8	42.3% / 34.5%	0.0% / 10.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 4.7	44.2% / 56.0%	9.3% / 24.0%	3.4 / 4.3	69 / 54	46.9% / 43.9%	43.5% / 44.4%	46.5% / 40.0%	5.3 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.9%	62.3% / 46.3%	34.0 / 24.9
6	CHI	24 – 27 L	-4.4	27.3% / 28.6%	6.8% / 19.0%	4.9% / 0.0%	3.8 / 5.3	46.2% / 41.8%	15.4% / 29.1%	4.8 / 4.2	70 / 76	37.3% / 42.1%	34.3% / 38.2%	21.6% / 41.1%	4.2 / 4.5	1.4% / 2.6%	37.1% / 72.4%	29.9 / 27.6
7	@MIN	16 – 24 L	-5.1	36.4% / 54.8%	11.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.2%	3.3 / 6.1	40.0% / 39.4%	35.0% / 27.3%	3.2 / 5.1	64 / 64	36.2% / 46.9%	37.5% / 46.9%	29.8% / 26.3%	3.3 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	31.3% / 51.6%	25.4 / 33.2
8	MIA	40 – 0 W	17.5	36.4% / 29.8%	0.0% / 6.4%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.5 / 3.2	34.9% / 26.3%	20.9% / 42.1%	4.1 / 2.4	65 / 66	42.6% / 30.6%	35.4% / 28.8%	45.0% / 41.3%	4.6 / 3.0	0.0% / 0.0%	66.2% / 28.8%	35.3 / 22.2
9	@TEN	20 – 23 L	-6.3	49.1% / 51.6%	3.6% / 9.7%	3.8% / 3.6%	4.9 / 6.0	40.9% / 36.4%	22.7% / 22.7%	3.3 / 3.3	77 / 53	47.4% / 53.8%	46.8% / 45.3%	8.2% / 49.0%	4.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 41.5%	24.8 / 34.6
11	@GB	23 – 0 W	7.6	32.3% / 38.1%	9.7% / 14.3%	3.6% / 8.3%	5.2 / 4.5	44.4% / 44.0%	25.9% / 32.0%	2.2 / 3.0	58 / 67	43.9% / 44.0%	37.9% / 40.3%	34.1% / 26.4%	3.8 / 4.0	0.0% / 3.0%	46.6% / 37.3%	46.6 / 20.1
12	HOU	23 – 16 W	2.0	32.4% / 38.5%	2.9% / 5.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	4.6 / 6.1	36.4% / 36.0%	30.3% / 32.0%	4.3 / 2.6	67 / 64	38.3% / 36.0%	34.3% / 37.5%	48.3% / 46.9%	4.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.6%	49.3% / 39.1%	34.3 / 20.9

Detroit Lions @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Dec 3

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis