Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Strong Opinion – ATLANTA (-6.5) over Detroit

Jared Goff is unlikely to be cleared to play by Sunday and Tim Boyle is expected to earn his second start of the season. Boyle averaged just 3.3 yppp versus the Browns and he is about 4 points worse than Goff. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 11.7 targets per game the last three weeks and Boyle will look for him on the inside as Falcons nickelback Darren Hall is surrendering 2.05 yards per route run in the slot.

Atlanta’s ground game ranks 31st and the Lions have the 5th-rated rush defense so it will all be on Matt Ryan’s shoulders this week for the Falcons to keep their playoff hopes alive. LT Jake Matthews is conceding only a 3.8% pressure rate and he will shut down Detroit edge defender Charles Harris, who ranks 19th in pass rushing efficiency. Lions’ linebacker Alex Anzalone will not play again this season because of a right shoulder injury he sustained in the win over Arizona. Detroit backup LB Derrick Barnes is surrendering 2.15 yards per cover snap, and we should see plenty of Cordarrelle Patterson, who is leading all running backs with 2.46 yards per route run.

Our model makes Atlanta a 7.1-point favorite, with a predicted total of 41.2 points. That’s not a lot of line value but the matchups favor Atlanta and the Lions apply to a 38-97-4 ATS road underdog letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over Arizona. The Lions were in that same situation two weeks ago in Denver, a 10-38 loss, after upsetting the Vikings the prior week. Atlanta is a Strong Opinion at -6.5 -115 odds or better.

Team Stats
Game Log

Lions
Falcons

DET

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.43 31.87
Succ Pass Plays 45.6% 47.7%
Sack Rate 6.7% 4.6%
Int Rate 1.8% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 14.1% 20.1%
Big Pass Yards 32.4% 42.6%
NYPP 5.38 7.25

Rush

Rush Plays 24.71 28.80
RB YPR 4.47 4.10
Stuff Rate 26.0% 23.1%
Succ Rush Plays 46.5% 51.6%
Big Rush Yards 46.6% 40.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.48 4.28

Game

All Snaps 62.14 60.67
Early Down Succ 50.9% 51.7%
Succ Rate 46.0% 49.6%
Big Yards Rate 37.1% 41.8%
Yards Per Play 5.02 5.84
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.89 29.27
Run Ratio 39.8% 47.5%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -4.62 4.62

Points 17.36 26.14

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.29 36.29
Succ Pass Plays 46.0% 51.0%
Sack Rate 5.6% 3.1%
Int Rate 2.8% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 13.2% 17.7%
Big Pass Yards 32.5% 31.5%
NYPP 6.02 6.80

Rush

Rush Plays 24.36 28.29
RB YPR 3.70 3.96
Stuff Rate 26.7% 19.2%
Succ Rush Plays 39.6% 53.3%
Big Rush Yards 41.6% 32.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.65 4.25

Game

All Snaps 61.64 64.57
Early Down Succ 45.1% 54.0%
Succ Rate 43.5% 52.0%
Big Yards Rate 35.0% 31.9%
Yards Per Play 5.08 5.68
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.53 28.41
Run Ratio 39.5% 43.8%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -2.18 2.18

Points 18.43 27.43

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	33 – 41 L	-9.15	41.7% / 55.6%	5.0% / 3.7%	1.8% / 0.0%	5.23 / 11.52	50.0% / 39.3%	20.8% / 32.1%	4.83 / 4.68	84 / 55	50.0% / 51.1%	44.0% / 47.3%	49.3% / 57.6%	5.12 / 8.04	0.0% / 3.6%	28.6% / 50.9%	28.00 / 31.25
2	@GB	17 – 35 L	-3.29	54.1% / 60.0%	2.7% / 10.0%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.38 / 7.57	57.9% / 41.9%	10.5% / 25.8%	5.68 / 3.10	56 / 61	60.0% / 51.0%	55.4% / 50.8%	41.0% / 26.8%	6.14 / 5.30	1.8% / 0.0%	33.9% / 50.8%	25.67 / 31.90
3	BLT	17 – 19 L	-4.64	54.5% / 37.1%	6.1% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	5.82 / 7.74	40.7% / 54.5%	33.3% / 22.7%	3.44 / 5.27	60 / 57	52.0% / 53.5%	48.3% / 43.9%	31.3% / 57.3%	4.75 / 6.79	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 38.6%	25.00 / 26.20
4	@CHI	14 – 24 L	-11.79	50.0% / 50.0%	9.5% / 5.6%	0.0% / 5.9%	6.14 / 10.28	52.0% / 53.8%	20.0% / 23.1%	3.60 / 4.82	67 / 57	56.9% / 59.6%	50.7% / 52.6%	40.1% / 65.5%	5.19 / 6.54	3.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 68.4%	32.44 / 16.40
5	@MIN	17 – 19 L	-4.04	41.0% / 47.2%	10.3% / 5.6%	2.9% / 2.9%	4.62 / 7.33	54.2% / 35.7%	25.0% / 35.7%	4.50 / 4.29	63 / 64	53.1% / 44.9%	46.0% / 42.2%	25.1% / 35.2%	4.57 / 6.00	1.6% / 1.6%	38.1% / 43.8%	30.55 / 25.58
6	CIN	11 – 34 L	-13.06	46.5% / 50.0%	2.3% / 6.3%	0.0% / 3.3%	4.47 / 8.00	33.3% / 55.6%	38.9% / 16.7%	2.00 / 3.94	61 / 68	45.5% / 52.0%	42.6% / 52.9%	13.9% / 49.0%	3.74 / 5.85	0.0% / 0.0%	29.5% / 52.9%	27.00 / 30.36
7	@LA	19 – 28 L	1.35	46.2% / 54.8%	5.1% / 2.4%	5.4% / 0.0%	7.13 / 7.79	42.9% / 36.8%	25.0% / 31.6%	4.89 / 2.47	67 / 61	45.8% / 44.7%	44.8% / 49.2%	52.1% / 44.4%	6.19 / 6.13	0.0% / 0.0%	41.8% / 31.1%	29.89 / 23.22
8	PHI	6 – 44 L	-18.08	40.0% / 43.8%	15.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.28 / 7.13	44.4% / 63.0%	27.8% / 17.4%	3.17 / 5.13	58 / 62	47.2% / 59.6%	41.4% / 58.1%	12.2% / 36.3%	3.93 / 5.65	1.7% / 0.0%	31.0% / 74.2%	29.80 / 33.11
10	@PIT	16 – 16 T	-0.63	24.1% / 38.0%	13.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.0%	2.66 / 4.84	38.5% / 45.2%	25.6% / 16.1%	5.87 / 4.32	68 / 81	34.8% / 42.2%	32.4% / 40.7%	61.2% / 27.9%	4.50 / 4.64	0.0% / 2.5%	57.4% / 38.3%	29.93 / 28.21
11	@CLV	10 – 13 L	-5.90	30.4% / 33.3%	0.0% / 3.3%	8.7% / 6.9%	3.35 / 5.50	47.8% / 52.8%	26.1% / 19.4%	7.30 / 5.11	46 / 66	42.9% / 45.3%	39.1% / 43.9%	59.6% / 58.3%	5.33 / 5.29	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 54.5%	31.36 / 21.64
12	CHI	14 – 16 L	0.63	50.0% / 50.0%	3.8% / 2.5%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.27 / 7.75	47.4% / 34.5%	31.6% / 41.4%	4.00 / 2.34	45 / 69	52.9% / 45.5%	48.9% / 43.5%	27.9% / 25.2%	5.31 / 5.48	2.2% / 0.0%	42.2% / 42.0%	23.22 / 29.40
13	MIN	29 – 27 W	4.06	54.5% / 47.7%	6.8% / 6.8%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.18 / 7.41	55.6% / 63.0%	25.9% / 18.5%	3.70 / 3.70	71 / 71	63.2% / 58.2%	54.9% / 53.5%	37.4% / 28.2%	5.24 / 6.00	1.4% / 1.4%	38.0% / 38.0%	26.58 / 36.33
14	@DEN	10 – 38 L	-12.26	46.3% / 57.7%	4.9% / 3.8%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.83 / 6.69	57.1% / 71.8%	14.3% / 12.8%	5.00 / 4.72	62 / 65	57.1% / 66.7%	50.0% / 66.2%	17.2% / 32.2%	4.89 / 5.51	1.6% / 0.0%	33.9% / 60.0%	27.11 / 30.11
15	ARZ	30 – 12 W	12.13	53.6% / 48.1%	7.1% / 3.8%	0.0% / 2.0%	7.57 / 5.63	38.2% / 57.1%	35.3% / 23.8%	3.71 / 5.00	62 / 73	45.7% / 52.7%	45.2% / 50.7%	32.7% / 36.8%	5.45 / 5.45	1.6% / 0.0%	54.8% / 28.8%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PHI	6 – 32 L	-7.50	39.5% / 55.6%	7.9% / 2.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.58 / 7.25	42.3% / 58.1%	26.9% / 12.9%	4.77 / 5.58	64 / 67	47.8% / 61.5%	40.6% / 56.7%	24.3% / 35.5%	4.06 / 6.48	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 46.3%	20.00 / 35.00
2	@TB	25 – 48 L	-9.88	46.9% / 48.7%	2.0% / 7.7%	6.3% / 0.0%	5.98 / 6.64	30.0% / 57.1%	40.0% / 28.6%	2.75 / 3.90	69 / 60	44.0% / 57.8%	42.0% / 51.7%	35.5% / 44.1%	5.04 / 5.68	0.0% / 1.7%	29.0% / 35.0%	27.29 / 39.75
3	@NYG	17 – 14 W	-2.05	41.0% / 51.4%	7.7% / 5.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.82 / 6.65	30.0% / 55.6%	15.0% / 29.6%	3.45 / 3.70	59 / 64	38.6% / 56.3%	37.3% / 53.1%	42.0% / 20.8%	5.02 / 5.41	1.7% / 1.6%	33.9% / 42.2%	29.40 / 22.40
4	WAS	30 – 34 L	3.18	51.2% / 52.9%	2.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.40 / 8.53	39.3% / 53.6%	21.4% / 21.4%	3.54 / 4.36	71 / 62	41.8% / 56.0%	46.5% / 53.2%	30.4% / 46.4%	5.27 / 6.65	0.0% / 0.0%	39.4% / 45.2%	25.10 / 27.89
5	NYJ	27 – 20 W	9.52	54.3% / 41.2%	0.0% / 5.9%	0.0% / 3.1%	7.43 / 4.88	44.8% / 72.2%	17.2% / 11.1%	3.72 / 3.56	75 / 52	46.7% / 55.0%	50.7% / 51.9%	27.1% / 27.3%	6.00 / 4.42	2.7% / 0.0%	38.7% / 34.6%	29.20 / 28.11
7	@MIA	30 – 28 W	2.83	51.2% / 58.5%	2.4% / 2.4%	2.5% / 5.0%	7.93 / 6.85	36.4% / 51.7%	13.6% / 10.3%	3.27 / 4.55	63 / 70	46.9% / 55.2%	46.0% / 55.7%	52.0% / 12.5%	6.30 / 5.90	1.6% / 0.0%	34.9% / 41.4%	29.18 / 31.90
8	CAR	13 – 19 L	0.36	43.3% / 40.0%	10.0% / 0.0%	7.4% / 0.0%	4.37 / 5.16	45.0% / 59.6%	25.0% / 17.0%	4.10 / 4.32	50 / 72	47.4% / 50.9%	44.0% / 52.8%	14.0% / 26.5%	4.26 / 4.61	0.0% / 1.4%	40.0% / 65.3%	31.10 / 27.45
9	@NO	27 – 25 W	6.11	56.3% / 50.0%	6.3% / 2.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.38 / 6.07	16.0% / 44.0%	44.0% / 16.0%	1.36 / 4.36	57 / 69	40.5% / 52.6%	38.6% / 47.8%	54.6% / 23.5%	6.42 / 5.45	0.0% / 1.4%	43.9% / 36.2%	29.27 / 33.20
10	@DAL	3 – 43 L	-23.04	31.0% / 57.1%	6.9% / 0.0%	11.1% / 0.0%	3.83 / 9.06	41.7% / 43.2%	20.8% / 21.6%	4.29 / 3.08	53 / 72	46.2% / 49.1%	35.8% / 50.0%	26.5% / 30.2%	4.04 / 5.99	0.0% / 1.4%	45.3% / 51.4%	26.75 / 29.73
11	NE	0 – 25 L	-9.70	41.7% / 51.7%	11.1% / 10.3%	12.5% / 3.8%	3.47 / 6.00	31.3% / 50.0%	43.8% / 33.3%	2.50 / 4.47	52 / 59	45.9% / 57.8%	38.5% / 50.8%	11.1% / 25.5%	3.17 / 5.22	0.0% / 0.0%	30.8% / 50.8%	21.45 / 33.00
12	@JAX	21 – 14 W	8.35	53.3% / 37.2%	3.3% / 2.3%	3.4% / 2.4%	6.10 / 5.02	51.7% / 67.9%	17.2% / 7.1%	5.14 / 5.04	59 / 71	56.5% / 50.0%	52.5% / 49.3%	30.7% / 39.0%	5.63 / 5.03	0.0% / 1.4%	49.2% / 39.4%	30.70 / 24.10
13	TB	17 – 30 L	-5.84	52.2% / 56.9%	10.9% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.0%	5.63 / 7.22	47.8% / 41.2%	34.8% / 17.6%	5.26 / 3.35	69 / 68	50.0% / 50.0%	50.7% / 52.9%	34.9% / 29.2%	5.51 / 6.25	1.4% / 0.0%	33.3% / 25.0%	23.33 / 21.70
14	@CAR	29 – 21 W	4.93	35.7% / 55.6%	0.0% / 2.8%	0.0% / 5.7%	6.79 / 6.75	47.2% / 42.3%	27.8% / 26.9%	3.56 / 3.50	64 / 62	37.5% / 54.2%	42.2% / 50.0%	38.7% / 27.9%	4.97 / 5.39	1.6% / 1.6%	56.3% / 41.9%	36.80 / 26.70
15	@SF	13 – 31 L	-7.76	37.1% / 54.2%	8.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.09 / 9.79	39.1% / 50.0%	34.8% / 15.6%	2.70 / 5.06	58 / 56	41.5% / 51.1%	37.9% / 51.8%	46.6% / 55.7%	4.74 / 7.09	1.7% / 0.0%	39.7% / 57.1%	0.00 / 0.00

Detroit Lions @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Dec 26

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis