Game Analysis
Detroit (-2.5) vs ARIZONA
The Cardinals finished last season as the worst defense in the league by our numbers and it was the right decision to fire defensive specialist head coach Steve Wilks after just one season. Arizona will look completely different with Kliff Kingsbury in charge and Kyler Murray under center. Kingsbury hasn’t been showing much in the preseason, but I expect the Cardinals to lead the league in pass-play rate and Murray is a unique talent that might give defenses trouble before they get some real game tape on him. Rookie quarterbacks in general are 19-11 ATS in the first 3 weeks of the season since 2013. Christian Kirk was gaining 1.85 yards per route run with Josh Rosen at quarterback before his late season injury, while no other receiver was above 1.5 yards per route run, and I expect the second year receiver to be Murray’s top target for 2019.
Detroit’s defense made two huge additions to their front seven this offseason. Mike Daniels ranked 6th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defensive linemen before his injury last season and Trey Flowers ranked in the top 10 among edge defenders. And, Damon Harrison and A’Shawn Robinson will be a load in the middle after ranking 1st and 6th respectively in run stop percentage. Overall, we have the Lions defensive talent ranked among the top 10 teams in the league and there will be pressure on defensive-minded head coach Matt Patricia to put together an elite stop unit in 2019.
The Cardinals will be without their best defensive player, Patrick Peterson, for the first 6 games and Lions receivers Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay should take advantage of Peterson’s absence. However, Detroit brought in Darrell Bevell at offensive coordinator and he may be too insistent on establishing the run to exploit Arizona’s secondary. We have the Lions projected as the 27th rated offense going into the season with a mediocre Matt Stafford under center and poor expected play calling.
The absence of Patrick Peterson is worth about a point but we favor Detroit by just 2.1. Our predicted total is 44.7 with room for upside with Arizona’s offense. It’s best to pass on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.4
33.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.9%
49.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
8.0%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.0%
23.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.7%
39.2%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.3
25.2
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
23.7%
23.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.5%
44.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.7%
40.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
63.7
58.9
-
Early Down Succ
47.9%
49.6%
-
Succ Rate
45.5%
46.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.3%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.2
-
Run Ratio
40.0%
42.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.7
27.2
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.2
34.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
35.9%
49.3%
-
Sack Rate
9.0%
9.2%
-
Int Rate
3.7%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.3%
14.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.8%
33.3%
-
NYPP
4.7
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.2
31.9
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
23.5%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.8%
50.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.2%
53.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
56.4
66.6
-
Early Down Succ
40.7%
53.7%
-
Succ Rate
37.7%
50.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.4%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.3
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.4
30.3
-
Run Ratio
39.8%
48.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.8
29.4
-
Game Control
-6.8
6.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
17 – 48 L |
-11.9 |
44.2% /
65.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
9.6% /
4.8% |
5.8 /
7.8 |
40.0% /
38.9% |
26.7% /
11.1% |
2.6 /
4.7 |
67 /
59 |
51.0% /
53.8% |
43.3% /
49.2% |
38.1% /
55.9% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
22.4% /
61.0% |
23.0 /
40.7 |
| 2 |
@SF |
27 – 30 L |
-5.3 |
43.6% /
53.1% |
3.6% /
18.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
44.4% /
46.4% |
5.6% /
25.0% |
5.4 /
6.8 |
73 /
60 |
44.6% /
56.3% |
43.8% /
50.0% |
38.4% /
48.8% |
5.8 /
5.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.7% /
46.7% |
24.8 /
32.3 |
| 3 |
NE |
26 – 10 W |
8.1 |
59.5% /
42.9% |
2.7% /
7.1% |
2.8% /
3.8% |
6.9 /
4.3 |
45.5% /
57.9% |
21.2% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
70 /
47 |
54.5% /
56.8% |
52.9% /
48.9% |
36.7% /
19.1% |
5.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
40.4% |
30.2 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
24 – 26 L |
-1.7 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
40.0% /
57.1% |
25.0% /
22.9% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
53 /
65 |
47.6% /
56.9% |
49.1% /
53.8% |
64.1% /
51.7% |
7.2 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
53.8% |
23.8 /
21.8 |
| 5 |
GB |
31 – 23 W |
13.9 |
31.0% /
51.8% |
10.3% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
7.6 |
35.7% /
55.0% |
28.6% /
10.0% |
3.4 /
4.9 |
57 /
76 |
32.6% /
55.6% |
33.3% /
52.6% |
37.9% /
41.3% |
4.6 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
3.9% |
49.1% /
26.3% |
46.1 /
20.5 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
32 – 21 W |
8.1 |
60.9% /
48.6% |
4.3% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
6.1 |
57.1% /
47.4% |
22.9% /
26.3% |
7.1 /
5.6 |
58 /
54 |
66.0% /
46.5% |
58.6% /
48.1% |
61.1% /
40.4% |
7.9 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.3% /
35.2% |
23.0 /
25.2 |
| 8 |
SEA |
14 – 28 L |
-8.8 |
55.8% /
57.9% |
7.0% /
10.5% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
12.5 |
30.8% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
23.8% |
2.6 /
4.2 |
56 /
61 |
47.8% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
52.5% |
26.0% /
48.7% |
5.9 /
6.8 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
68.9% |
15.0 /
25.8 |
| 9 |
@MIN |
9 – 24 L |
-8.8 |
39.1% /
56.5% |
21.7% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
3.1 /
6.7 |
41.7% /
43.5% |
16.7% /
26.1% |
2.8 /
5.6 |
70 /
46 |
41.2% /
51.4% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
41.0% |
3.0 /
6.2 |
1.4% /
2.2% |
34.3% /
50.0% |
21.7 /
32.6 |
| 10 |
@CHI |
22 – 34 L |
-15.7 |
43.8% /
58.1% |
12.5% /
3.2% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
11.2 |
54.2% /
31.8% |
29.2% /
36.4% |
3.2 /
2.5 |
72 /
53 |
50.0% /
48.8% |
47.2% /
47.2% |
25.9% /
66.7% |
4.2 /
7.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
41.5% |
28.8 /
33.4 |
| 11 |
CAR |
20 – 19 W |
1.3 |
39.5% /
53.7% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.7 /
8.1 |
38.5% /
56.3% |
34.6% /
18.8% |
3.6 /
3.5 |
64 /
57 |
42.0% /
56.5% |
39.1% /
54.4% |
38.2% /
51.4% |
4.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.6% /
28.1% |
31.9 /
16.4 |
| 12 |
CHI |
16 – 23 L |
-0.5 |
47.5% /
50.0% |
5.0% /
9.5% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
5.4 |
58.3% /
33.3% |
4.2% /
26.7% |
4.6 /
2.5 |
64 /
57 |
56.3% /
51.1% |
51.6% /
45.6% |
27.9% /
24.6% |
5.2 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
37.5% /
26.3% |
27.1 /
27.2 |
| 13 |
LA |
16 – 30 L |
-4.6 |
39.5% /
42.9% |
10.5% /
5.7% |
2.9% /
3.0% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
46.2% /
48.3% |
30.8% /
13.8% |
3.9 /
5.1 |
64 /
64 |
48.1% /
47.1% |
42.2% /
45.3% |
46.8% /
39.0% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
40.6% /
45.3% |
25.7 /
32.0 |
| 14 |
@ARI |
17 – 3 W |
4.3 |
33.3% /
40.9% |
4.2% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
41.9% /
19.0% |
32.3% /
33.3% |
3.9 /
2.9 |
55 /
65 |
39.5% /
33.3% |
38.2% /
33.8% |
18.3% /
7.2% |
4.0 /
4.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
56.4% /
32.3% |
25.4 /
23.2 |
| 15 |
@BUF |
13 – 14 L |
2.4 |
44.8% /
40.7% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
7.2 |
53.8% /
45.9% |
26.9% /
13.5% |
4.0 /
3.2 |
55 /
64 |
52.4% /
50.0% |
49.1% /
43.8% |
61.7% /
43.6% |
5.7 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
57.8% |
20.7 /
23.1 |
| 16 |
MIN |
9 – 27 L |
-3.8 |
34.8% /
46.7% |
6.5% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.0 /
8.0 |
39.1% /
35.7% |
39.1% /
32.1% |
3.7 /
3.6 |
69 /
58 |
40.0% /
45.5% |
36.2% /
41.4% |
33.2% /
43.5% |
3.2 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
48.3% |
28.0 /
33.3 |
| 17 |
@GB |
31 – 0 W |
15.8 |
61.8% /
27.9% |
2.9% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
8.0 /
3.0 |
44.7% /
38.5% |
13.2% /
38.5% |
3.4 /
3.5 |
72 /
56 |
53.6% /
30.6% |
52.8% /
30.4% |
26.6% /
35.4% |
5.6 /
3.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.8% /
23.2% |
32.5 /
21.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
WAS |
6 – 24 L |
-13.7 |
38.9% /
54.5% |
5.6% /
9.1% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
7.5 |
60.0% /
47.6% |
13.3% /
26.2% |
4.5 /
4.3 |
51 /
75 |
53.7% /
50.0% |
45.1% /
50.7% |
35.2% /
47.1% |
4.2 /
5.7 |
2.0% /
1.3% |
29.4% /
56.0% |
29.3 /
18.0 |
| 2 |
@LA |
0 – 34 L |
-14.9 |
21.4% /
64.7% |
3.6% /
5.9% |
3.7% /
3.1% |
3.0 /
10.1 |
33.3% /
48.5% |
13.3% /
24.2% |
3.6 /
2.7 |
43 /
67 |
23.3% /
59.2% |
25.6% /
56.7% |
0.0% /
51.9% |
3.2 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
49.3% |
19.0 /
39.1 |
| 3 |
CHI |
14 – 16 L |
7.2 |
40.0% /
42.1% |
13.3% /
7.9% |
11.5% /
2.9% |
5.6 /
5.1 |
33.3% /
54.8% |
27.8% /
22.6% |
2.9 /
3.9 |
48 /
69 |
40.5% /
50.0% |
37.5% /
47.8% |
58.8% /
37.7% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
2.1% /
1.4% |
37.5% /
44.9% |
32.8 /
27.8 |
| 4 |
SEA |
17 – 20 L |
-2.0 |
42.9% /
46.4% |
3.6% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
5.7 |
39.3% /
50.0% |
35.7% /
23.5% |
3.3 /
5.0 |
56 /
62 |
40.9% /
58.0% |
41.1% /
48.4% |
54.0% /
35.6% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
54.8% |
26.4 /
35.5 |
| 5 |
@SF |
28 – 18 W |
6.1 |
30.8% /
46.6% |
3.8% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
6.3 /
5.2 |
34.8% /
50.0% |
26.1% /
29.4% |
2.4 /
4.3 |
49 /
92 |
40.0% /
45.2% |
32.7% /
47.8% |
47.7% /
41.2% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
46.9% /
37.0% |
39.7 /
22.7 |
| 6 |
@MIN |
17 – 27 L |
-8.0 |
37.1% /
52.6% |
11.4% /
10.5% |
3.2% /
2.9% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
40.0% /
43.8% |
30.0% /
18.8% |
3.0 /
6.1 |
55 /
70 |
48.8% /
54.7% |
38.2% /
48.6% |
41.4% /
31.4% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
36.4% /
45.7% |
25.5 /
30.9 |
| 7 |
DEN |
10 – 45 L |
-24.9 |
40.0% /
45.8% |
13.3% /
8.3% |
7.7% /
4.5% |
3.4 /
7.4 |
33.3% /
35.5% |
28.6% /
25.8% |
3.3 /
4.2 |
66 /
55 |
41.2% /
42.5% |
37.9% /
40.0% |
32.3% /
53.1% |
3.4 /
5.6 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
31.8% /
56.4% |
23.5 /
37.0 |
| 8 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-3.1 |
41.9% /
40.6% |
7.0% /
12.5% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
5.0 |
47.6% /
32.3% |
14.3% /
35.5% |
4.2 /
3.5 |
64 /
63 |
44.0% /
36.7% |
43.8% /
36.5% |
21.8% /
46.8% |
5.0 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
49.2% |
20.8 /
31.1 |
| 10 |
@KC |
14 – 26 L |
-8.0 |
36.4% /
54.5% |
11.4% /
15.2% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
6.4 |
60.0% /
47.8% |
8.0% /
34.8% |
3.8 /
5.1 |
69 /
56 |
44.2% /
56.8% |
44.9% /
51.8% |
34.2% /
58.5% |
3.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
41.1% |
23.7 /
36.2 |
| 11 |
OAK |
21 – 23 L |
-1.4 |
33.3% /
45.7% |
4.8% /
11.4% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
41.9% /
60.6% |
32.3% /
15.2% |
5.0 /
4.6 |
52 /
68 |
42.5% /
60.8% |
38.5% /
52.9% |
43.3% /
47.4% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
59.6% /
48.5% |
29.6 /
29.9 |
| 12 |
@LAC |
10 – 45 L |
-12.8 |
38.1% /
63.9% |
9.5% /
11.1% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
6.6 |
29.2% /
63.3% |
25.0% /
13.3% |
2.6 /
5.9 |
45 /
66 |
35.5% /
67.9% |
33.3% /
63.6% |
32.2% /
38.9% |
3.3 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
53.3% /
45.5% |
32.6 /
36.2 |
| 13 |
@GB |
20 – 17 W |
0.1 |
35.7% /
49.0% |
7.1% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
4.5 |
44.8% /
56.5% |
13.8% /
26.1% |
6.3 /
4.3 |
57 /
74 |
41.9% /
56.9% |
40.4% /
51.4% |
59.7% /
13.8% |
5.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.9% /
31.1% |
24.9 /
25.6 |
| 14 |
DET |
3 – 17 L |
-4.3 |
40.9% /
33.3% |
6.8% /
4.2% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
4.0 |
19.0% /
41.9% |
33.3% /
32.3% |
2.9 /
3.9 |
65 /
55 |
33.3% /
39.5% |
33.8% /
38.2% |
7.2% /
18.3% |
4.3 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
32.3% /
56.4% |
23.2 /
25.4 |
| 15 |
@ATL |
14 – 40 L |
-15.8 |
34.9% /
50.0% |
16.3% /
5.3% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
5.8 |
40.9% /
51.9% |
36.4% /
25.9% |
2.7 /
8.0 |
65 /
65 |
38.8% /
53.8% |
36.9% /
50.8% |
35.2% /
55.9% |
3.9 /
6.7 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
41.5% |
29.1 /
25.0 |
| 16 |
LA |
9 – 31 L |
-10.2 |
31.4% /
57.7% |
11.4% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
7.4 |
44.4% /
80.5% |
16.7% /
4.9% |
5.8 /
6.6 |
53 /
67 |
40.0% /
75.0% |
35.8% /
71.6% |
43.0% /
43.2% |
5.0 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
34.0% /
61.2% |
25.9 /
21.8 |
| 17 |
@SEA |
24 – 27 L |
-2.5 |
30.0% /
40.7% |
15.0% /
22.2% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
2.8 /
4.0 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
20.8% /
23.5% |
3.5 /
5.4 |
64 /
61 |
42.2% /
52.2% |
37.5% /
45.9% |
19.7% /
56.7% |
3.1 /
4.8 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
55.7% |
39.0 /
28.7 |
Detroit Lions
@ 
Arizona Cardinals