Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *WASHINGTON (+6.5) over Denver

• The betting market is way too low on Washington’s offense on Sunday night. You’d have to think the Commanders are roughly equivalent to the Saints offense to arrive at this side and total. That is certainly not the case.
• Marcus Mariota is averaging 0.09 EPA/play this season (16th), and he remains among the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL.
• Washington wide receivers Terry McLaurin (quad) and Noah Brown (groin) will practice this week alongside fellow starting WR Deebo Samuel for the first time since September. McLaurin is averaging 0.50 EPA/target more than backup WR Jaylin Lane.
• Denver edge defender Nik Bonitto has 49 pressures (9th), but he will be limited by LT Laremy Tunsil, who ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Broncos will get back CB Patrick Surtain, but the Commanders’ defense is improving this week, too, getting back interior defender Daron Payne, who has a 7.6% pressure rate – compared to backup Eddie Goldman’s 4.4% pressure rate.
• Payne will collapse the pocket on Bo Nix as Denver continues to be missing starting LG Ben Powers, who is worth half a point.
• Denver has won 8 consecutive games but road favorites on win streaks of 8 games or more are just 9-38-1 ATS from game 12 on, including New England failing to cover last week at Cincy.
• The Broncos also apply to a negative 26-80-1 ATS situation that is 1-10 ATS applying to teams coming off a bye week.
• Our model favors the Broncos by just 3.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.1 points, and the situation favors the Commanders.

Washington is a 1-Star Best Bet at +5.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +5).