Game Analysis

Note: Denver was initially posted as a Lean at +6 but I released the Broncos to subscribers as a Strong Opinion about 40 minutes before the game started – after the line moved to +6.5.

Strong Opinion – Denver (+6.5) over SEATTLE

• The Broncos drafted Bo Nix with the 12th pick and I think he’s going to be able to operate this Sean Payton offense at least as well as Russell Wilson did last season. Oregon’s offense was the second-best unit in the nation (behind LSU) and the Ducks averaged 41.1 points on over 500 total yards per game at 7.8 yards per play (with QB Nix in the game) against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average offense.
• The critique is Nix threw 38% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, but he also had 23 completions on passes with at least 20 air yards.
• Denver’s offense loses WR Jerry Jeudy, who averaged 1.65 yards per route run in 2023. However, I think they can mostly replace Jeudy’s production with new addition WR Josh Reynolds, whose 58% success rate last season was 23rd among all receivers last season.
• The Broncos offensive line is worse without center Lloyd Cushenberry, who ranked 8th in pass blocking efficiency on true sets last season. Cushenberry is worth 0.4 points over new starter Luke Wattenberg, who has allowed 3 sacks on just 71 pass-blocking snaps in his career.
• Seahawks new head coach Mike Macdonald is quickly becoming the Sean McVay of defense. The Titans, Dolphins, and Ravens all hired coaches who served under MacDonald last year in Baltimore. Plus, the Chargers’ new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter continued what Macdonald started at Michigan.
• The strength of Macdonald’s Ravens defense last season was the spine – with a great interior line, linebackers, and safety play. The Seahawks had one of the best interior groups in the NFL last year led by Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, and Dre-Mont Jones. They had the 9th-highest percentage of their pressures come from the interior. Now, they’ve spent a first-round pick on DT Byron Murphy.
• Seattle CB Devon Witherspoon isn’t exactly a like-for-like body type with Baltimore S Kyle Hamilton but both guys can play that role in the slot in MacDonald’s defense because they can cover well and aren’t afraid to hit. Witherspoon graded as the 9th-best run defender by PFF and he is also an effective blitzer as he was 2nd among CBs with 10 pressures.
• Seahawks cornerback Tariq Woolen will be in the Marlon Humphrey role and they clearly like Julian Love as a centerfield because they just extended him 3 years for $36M.
• Seattle’s linebacker production is going to be the major question mark with Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker being a major downgrade from Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. This will be the main reason this defense won’t be the elite unit MacDonald had last year. Baltimore’s defense in 2022 surrendered a 45% success rate without Roquan Smith (27th) compared to conceding a 39% success rate after the mid-season trade (5th).
• The Seahawks offense lost two starters on the interior line and that would be the main reason this unit could fall apart. They signed C Connor Williams but he’s coming off a torn ACL. Seattle also brought in guard Laken Tomlinson, who ranked 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency on true sets last season. Broncos’ interior defender Zach Allen had 60 pressures in 2023 (7th) and should pull Geno Smith down for at least one sack on Sunday.
• Denver’s defense had that horrible game against Miami in September, surrendering 70 points, but they got themselves up to near league average in market ratings by the end of last season. The Broncos are now without four-time All-Pro safety Justin Simmons, so they are likely to drop back to roughly a point below average.
• Our model favors the Seahawks by 5.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points, and the Broncos apply to a 71-28-3 ATS week 1 angle. The line move up to 6.5 is enough to push this up to a Strong Opinion on Denver at +6.5 -110 or better.